2 Log Ln · Earl, PA 17519

$138,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,323 sqft · Manufactured public records · 44 Days on market

Built 1992 $104/sqft · 41% above area Est $98k · 41% over ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.1/30.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 2 Log Lane — a spacious and well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home located in the desirable Log Cabin Court community. Offering over 1,300 square feet of living space, this home provides the comfort, layout, and value that buyers have been searching for. Step inside to find a warm and inviting interior with a functional floor plan, generous room sizes, and a comfortable living area perfect for relaxing or entertaining. The home features a newer roof, updated ramp access, and a layout designed for everyday convenience. The primary bedroom includes its own private bathroom, while the additional bedrooms offer flexibility for guests, office space, or hobbies. Outside, enjoy pe

Key facts

• Covered deck
• Built 1992
• Listed 44 days

Tags

• ROOF LESS THAN 1 YEARS OLD
• COVERED DECK
• STAIRS AND RAMP ACCESS
• SOFT-CLOSE GLIDE-OUT DRAWERS
• DESIGNATED EAT-IN AREA
• COZY WOOD-BURNING FIREPLACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property manager present; Not in a federal flood zone; Accessible features: 32"+ wide doors; Pets allowed with no pet restrictions; Above-grade finished area ~1,323 (estimated)
• Financial info: Ownership interest: Ground rent
• HOA & community: Log Cabin Court mobile home park; Association recreation fee $647 (includes trash, water, sewer); Ground rent exists (monthly payment)

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Off-street parking
• Utilities: Community water; Shared septic; Electric available (100 amp service); Propane available; Cable TV available; Phone available; Hot water: Electric
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home (Fleetwood, model MH); Main entrance faces east; Built/major remodel effective 2016 (year estimated)
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Shingle roof; Crawl space foundation; Building not winterized
• Exterior features: Deck(s); Exterior lighting; Chimney cap(s); Shed

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Oven (self-cleaning); Stove; Refrigerator; Energy-efficient appliances; Exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (including main level)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (forced air); Propane (leased) heating fuel; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floor plan; Breakfast area / Eat-in kitchen; Dining area; Ceiling fan(s); Upgraded countertops; Soaking tub; Stall shower / Tub-shower combination; Walk-in shower; Paneled walls; Insulated doors; Not furnished
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer (electric); Main-floor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $138k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $306 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $138k).
• Recommended offer: $134k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Eastern Lancaster County SD (suburban): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #321 of 539 in PA (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 1,093 units permitted in Lancaster County in 2024 (201 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $954 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lancaster County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($134k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 24% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $133,860 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.49%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $98,064
• List price: $138,000
• Delta: 40.73%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-2,952
• Equity at exit: $20,576

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.58×
• Total profit: $22,256
• Equity at exit: $11,932

Cash invested: $38,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17519

• Home prices YoY: -12.1%
• Active inventory: 15
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,425 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$724
• Tax from tax record: −$39 /mo · $468/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$299
• Net cashflow: $306

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,038

Max offer price $138,000

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $384	-5% $345	+0% $306	+5% $267	+10% $228
Rent	-10% $193	-5% $249	+0% $306	+5% $362	+10% $418
Rate	-1.0pp $375	-0.5pp $341	base $306	+0.5pp $270	+1.0pp $234

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,500
• Closing costs: $4,140
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $138,000 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $138,000 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $138,000 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $138,000 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   pricedays on market $138,000 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $139,000 Active 36 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,000 Active 35 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,000 Active 34 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $139,000 Active 33 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $139,000 Active 29 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    price $139,000 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $140,000 Active 28 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $140,000 Active 27 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $140,000 Active 26 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $140,000 Active 25 DOM
16. 2026-05-05
    historical
17. 2026-05-05
    listed $140,000 Active 1619-char remark
18. 2026-02-19
    status Active
19. 2026-02-15
    historical Active Under Contract
20. 2026-02-06
    listed $150,000 Active
21. 2026-02-04
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $468 · $39/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,324 · $110/mo
• Expected delta: +$856/yr (+$71/mo · 182.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 24% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,102
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,730
• − Property taxes: −$468
• − Insurance: −$690
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,368
• − Management: −$1,368
• − Depreciation: −$4,015
• Taxable income: $1,463
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$351
• After-tax cash flow: $3,317/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Eastern Lancaster County SD
• NCES district ID: 4208820
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $57,567
• Composite: 36.0/100
• National rank: #4787
• State rank: #321 of 539 in PA

Livability — Earl

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,868

Population outlook (Lancaster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 561,011 people
• By 2030: 570,969 · +1.8%
• By 2040: 585,929 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 591,056 · +5.4%
• By 2075: 594,747 · +6.0%
• By 2100: 558,850 · -0.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 3% Portuguese 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5%
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · German/W. Germanic 20% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lancaster

• 2024 margin: R (+15.9) · D 41.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.1pp toward R · 2008: -11.8pp · 2024: -15.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+15.9 2020: R+15.8 2016: R+19.7 2012: R+19.2 2008: R+11.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -36.32%
• Current HPI: 265.1191
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-8.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-14 Price Changed $138,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-06-02 Price Changed $139,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-05 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-05 Listed $140,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-19 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-15 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-06 Listed $150,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-04 Coming Soon — BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

-3.1%/yr

Latest (2026): $468 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.