206 Lilly St · Elkhart, TX 75839

$139,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,446 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 59 Days on market

Built 1971 0.48 ac lot $96/sqft · 14% above area Est $163k · 15% under ↓ 35% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.3/30.0
• ARV discount +14.1/15.0
• Appreciation +8.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This roomy property offers four bedrooms, three full bathrooms, and an additional flex room perfect for a home office, playroom, or even a small fifth bedroom. With a generous lot and plenty of potential, it's ready for you to bring your imagination and make it truly your own. A great opportunity to create the home that fits your vision.

Key facts

• 0.48 acre lot
• Built 1971
• Listed 58 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $25 ($299/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $139k (0.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $135k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 1.5% in Elkhart — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#750 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Elkhart ISD (rural): math 49% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #153 of 826 in TX (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 69 active listings in the ZIP; 29 units permitted in Anderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($961 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (6.3% local appreciation)).
• Anderson County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (6.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($135k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $134,830 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.77%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $163,078
• List price: $139,000
• Delta: -14.76%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

6.28% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.13×
• Total profit: $44,092
• Equity at exit: $89,813

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.29×
• Total profit: $128,058
• Equity at exit: $165,014

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75839

• Home prices YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 69
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,385 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax from tax record: −$283 /mo · $3,393/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$291
• Net cashflow: $25

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,354

Max offer price $139,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $104	-5% $64	+0% $25	+5% $-14	+10% $-54
Rent	-10% $-85	-5% $-30	+0% $25	+5% $80	+10% $134
Rate	-1.0pp $95	-0.5pp $60	base $25	+0.5pp $-11	+1.0pp $-48

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $139,000 Active 59 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,000 Active 58 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,000 Active 57 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,000 Active 56 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,000 Active 55 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $139,000 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $139,000 Active 52 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,000 Active 49 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,000 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,000 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,000 Active 46 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $139,000 Active 43 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,000 Active 42 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,000 Active 41 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,000 Active 40 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,000 Active 39 DOM
17. 2026-05-11
    price $149,000 339-char remark

    Show marketing remark (339 chars)

    This roomy property offers four bedrooms, three full bathrooms, and an additional flex room perfect for a home office, playroom, or even a small fifth bedroom. With a generous lot and plenty of potential, it's ready for you to bring your imagination and make it truly your own. A great opportunity to create the home that fits your vision.

18. 2026-04-21
    listed $165,000 Active 339-char remark

    Show marketing remark (339 chars)

    This roomy property offers four bedrooms, three full bathrooms, and an additional flex room perfect for a home office, playroom, or even a small fifth bedroom. With a generous lot and plenty of potential, it's ready for you to bring your imagination and make it truly your own. A great opportunity to create the home that fits your vision.

19. 2025-11-20
    historical
20. 2025-11-20
    historical
21. 2025-08-04
    listed $212,500 Active
22. 2025-07-15
    listed $212,500 Active
23. 2025-07-07
    price $212,500
24. 2025-07-07
    price $212,500
25. 2025-06-10
    listed $230,000 Active
26. 2021-10-29
    soldstatus
27. 2016-09-15
    soldstatus
28. 2012-02-16
    soldstatus
29. 2009-02-12
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,393 · $283/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,393 · $283/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,625
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$3,393
• − Insurance: −$695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,330
• − Management: −$1,330
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable loss: −$1,953
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$469
• After-tax cash flow: $767/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elkhart ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818390
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,633
• Composite: 44.01/100
• National rank: #2890
• State rank: #153 of 826 in TX

Livability — Elkhart

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #750
• US rank: #13836

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elkhart, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,577

Population outlook (Anderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 56,663 people
• By 2030: 57,373 · +1.3%
• By 2040: 58,960 · +4.1%
• By 2050: 59,073 · +4.3%
• By 2075: 53,737 · -5.2%
• By 2100: 42,516 · -25.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Two or more races 15% Hispanic / Latino 12% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Anderson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.8) · D 18.8% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.3pp toward R · 2008: -43.5pp · 2024: -61.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.8 2020: R+58.0 2016: R+58.1 2012: R+52.2 2008: R+43.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.28%
• Current HPI: 232.112
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-35.2% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $149,000 PAOR
• 2026-04-21 Listed $165,000 PAOR
• 2025-11-20 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-11-20 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-08-04 Listed $212,500 HARMLS
• 2025-07-15 Listed $212,500 NTREIS
• 2025-07-07 Price Changed $212,500 GTAR
• 2025-07-07 Price Changed $212,500 PAOR
• 2025-06-10 Listed $230,000 PAOR
• 2021-10-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-09-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2012-02-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2009-02-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,393 · +10.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.