1313 N Noble Rd · Texas City, TX 77591

$149,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,063 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 107 Days on market

Built 1970 6,011 sqft lot $141/sqft · 10% below area Est $167k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• ARV discount +12.2/15.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming single-family home with 3 bedrooms and 1 bathroom. New roof in Nov. 2009, re-piped in Nov. 2013, and A/C replaced with 14 seer in May 2013. Some new flooring in living room, kitchen, and dining area. Separate storage building and a nice patio in the back. 1-car garage with carport in front. Lots of potential to make it your own. Built in 1970, this property sits on a 6010 square foot lot. Contact me for more information on this lovely home at 1313 Noble.

Key facts

• New flooring
• Re-piped
• Patio

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• RE-PIPED
• A/C REPLACED
• NEW FLOORING
• SEPARATE STORAGE BLDG
• PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-12 ($-142/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $148k (1.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $144k (4.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $136k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.3% in Texas City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#907 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Texas City ISD (suburban): math 28% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #655 of 826 in TX (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.7%/yr); 240 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 107 days — a 9% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $38k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $136,409 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 107 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.34%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $167,246
• List price: $149,900
• Delta: -10.37%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1113 N Noble Rd	0.11mi	3/1.5	1,059 (-0%)	3mo	$150,000	$142	92
8510 Shiloh Dr	0.09mi	3/1.5	1,129 (+6%)	1mo	$129,000	$114	85
1118 N Noble Rd	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,102 (+4%)	6mo	$199,700	$181	82
1314 N Noble Rd	0.03mi	3/1.5	1,144 (+8%)	12mo	$140,000	$122	76
1213 N Natchez Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,174 (+10%)	3mo	$194,900	$166	74
1122 N Natchez Dr	0.12mi	3/1.5	1,180 (+11%)	5mo	$98,000	$83	72
617 N Noble Rd	0.44mi	3/1.5	1,200 (+13%)	0mo	$220,000	$183	58
9222 Mackerel Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,134 (+7%)	21mo	$138,000	$122	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-22,501
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-9,789
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77591

• Home prices YoY: -5.6%
• Rents YoY: 4.7%
• Active inventory: 240
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,435 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$297 /mo · $3,567/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$301
• Net cashflow: $-12

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,450

Max offer price $147,815

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $73	-5% $31	+0% $-12	+5% $-54	+10% $-97
Rent	-10% $-125	-5% $-69	+0% $-12	+5% $45	+10% $102
Rate	-1.0pp $64	-0.5pp $26	base $-12	+0.5pp $-51	+1.0pp $-90

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8807 Emmett F Lowry Expy Texas City, TX	2.0	2.0	987	$1,105	$1.12	46d	1	0.23mi
7561 Medical Center Dr Texas City, TX	2.0	2.0	892	$1,113	$1.25	46d	1	0.72mi
9001 Glacier Ave Texas City, TX	2.0	2.0	1062	$1,180	$1.11	0d	4	0.77mi
7510 Hummingbird Ln Texas City, TX	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,550	$1.29	5d	1	1.23mi
6607 Memorial Dr Texas City, TX	2.0	1.0	936	$1,200	$1.28	46d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $149,900 Active 107 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,900 Active 104 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,900 Active 103 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,900 Active 102 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,900 Active 101 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,900 Active 99 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,900 Active 95 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,900 Active 94 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $149,900 Active 93 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $149,900 Active 90 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,900 Active 89 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,900 Active 88 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,900 Active 87 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,900 Active 86 DOM
15. 2026-05-02
    price $149,900 467-char remark

    Show marketing remark (467 chars)

    Charming single-family home with 3 bedrooms and 1 bathroom. New roof in Nov. 2009, re-piped in Nov. 2013, and A/C replaced with 14 seer in May 2013. Some new flooring in living room, kitchen, and dining area. Separate storage building and a nice patio in the back. 1-car garage with carport in front. Lots of potential to make it your own. Built in 1970, this property sits on a 6010 square foot lot. Contact me for more information on this lovely home at 1313 Noble.

16. 2026-03-03
    listed $188,210 Active 467-char remark

    Show marketing remark (467 chars)

    Charming single-family home with 3 bedrooms and 1 bathroom. New roof in Nov. 2009, re-piped in Nov. 2013, and A/C replaced with 14 seer in May 2013. Some new flooring in living room, kitchen, and dining area. Separate storage building and a nice patio in the back. 1-car garage with carport in front. Lots of potential to make it your own. Built in 1970, this property sits on a 6010 square foot lot. Contact me for more information on this lovely home at 1313 Noble.

17. 2018-07-02
    soldstatus Sold 290-char remark

    Show marketing remark (290 chars)

    Needs a little work. Some work already completed. New roof Nov. 2009, Re-piped Nov. 2013, and A/c replaced with 14 seer in May 2013. Some new flooring in living room, kitchen and dining area. Separate storage bldg. Nice patio in back. 1 car garage with carport in front. Lots of potential.

18. 2018-07-02
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (290 chars)

    Needs a little work. Some work already completed. New roof Nov. 2009, Re-piped Nov. 2013, and A/c replaced with 14 seer in May 2013. Some new flooring in living room, kitchen and dining area. Separate storage bldg. Nice patio in back. 1 car garage with carport in front. Lots of potential.

19. 2018-04-19
    status Pending 290-char remark

    Show marketing remark (290 chars)

    Needs a little work. Some work already completed. New roof Nov. 2009, Re-piped Nov. 2013, and A/c replaced with 14 seer in May 2013. Some new flooring in living room, kitchen and dining area. Separate storage bldg. Nice patio in back. 1 car garage with carport in front. Lots of potential.

20. 2018-04-13
    status Option Pending 290-char remark

    Show marketing remark (290 chars)

    Needs a little work. Some work already completed. New roof Nov. 2009, Re-piped Nov. 2013, and A/c replaced with 14 seer in May 2013. Some new flooring in living room, kitchen and dining area. Separate storage bldg. Nice patio in back. 1 car garage with carport in front. Lots of potential.

21. 2018-04-09
    listed $89,000 Active 290-char remark

    Show marketing remark (290 chars)

    Needs a little work. Some work already completed. New roof Nov. 2009, Re-piped Nov. 2013, and A/c replaced with 14 seer in May 2013. Some new flooring in living room, kitchen and dining area. Separate storage bldg. Nice patio in back. 1 car garage with carport in front. Lots of potential.

22. 2008-10-30
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,567 · $297/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,567 · $297/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 69% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,225
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$3,567
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,378
• − Management: −$1,378
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable loss: −$2,605
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$625
• After-tax cash flow: $483/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Texas City ISD
• NCES district ID: 4842510
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,875
• Composite: 24.47/100
• National rank: #7664
• State rank: #655 of 826 in TX

Livability — Texas City

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #907
• US rank: #16268

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Texas City, TX
• County: Galveston County · 357,330 people
• City population: 49,936
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,294
• Household income: $68,593
• Rent vs Own: 44.6% rent · 55.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 718.0

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 50% White 26% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 9% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -14.63%
• Current HPI: 247.1905
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.67%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+68.4% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $149,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-03 Listed $188,210 HARMLS
• 2018-07-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-07-02 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2018-04-19 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-04-13 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-04-09 Listed $89,000 HARMLS
• 2008-10-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,567 · +11.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.