318 Church St · Poughkeepsie, NY 12601

$40,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,521 sqft · Land · 33 Days on market

Built 1921

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Don't miss this great opportunity! Level, vacant lot located on Church St (44/55 west) in Poughkeepsie, NY. Book your appointment to see this great property today! This is a FannieMae HomePath property.

Key facts

• Single family home
• Centrally located
• Triplex

Tags

• SINGLE FAMILY HOME
• TRIPLEX
• CENTRALLY LOCATED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath land listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($19k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $39k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 54.9% vs local median 3.4% in Poughkeepsie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#165 in NY, #2,577 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: employment D+, crime F.
• Poughkeepsie City School District (suburban): math 29% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #559 of 590 in NY (top 95%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 189 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,420/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($64k/yr) (locally 2891% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $277 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.7% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $14k; list at $40k implies a 182% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1921 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $38,800 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1921 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 6.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 54.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 173.48%
• DSCR: 8.72
• GRM: 1.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 9.78×
• Total profit: $98,330
• Equity at exit: $5,964

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 21.13×
• Total profit: $225,432
• Equity at exit: $3,458

Cash invested: $11,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12601

• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 189
• Price-to-rent: 1.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,420 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax from tax record: −$66 /mo · $796/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$508
• Net cashflow: $1,619

Break-even live

Break-even rent $371

Max offer price $40,000

Occupancy floor 28%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,642	-5% $1,630	+0% $1,619	+5% $1,608	+10% $1,596
Rent	-10% $1,428	-5% $1,524	+0% $1,619	+5% $1,715	+10% $1,810
Rate	-1.0pp $1,639	-0.5pp $1,629	base $1,619	+0.5pp $1,609	+1.0pp $1,598

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,000
• Closing costs: $1,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 33 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8 Fox Ter Unit 1 Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	1.0	1450	$2,200	$1.52	44d	1	0.07mi
25 Virginia Ave Unit 1 Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	1.0	1150	$2,200	$1.91	44d	1	0.16mi
15 Forbus St Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	1.0	2140	$2,500	$1.17	24d	1	0.23mi
94 Winnikee Ave Unit 2 Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$2,000	$1.82	14d	1	0.30mi
104 Winnikee Ave #3 Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$2,200	$2.00	44d	1	0.30mi
49 S Hamilton St Unit 2 Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$2,000	$1.82	44d	1	0.39mi
1 S Hamilton St Unit 3 Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$2,500	$2.27	44d	1	0.40mi
148 Winnikee Ave Unit 2 Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	1.0	1198	$1,900	$1.59	44d	1	0.41mi
18 Innis Ave Unit 1 Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	1.0	1344	$2,500	$1.86	24d	1	0.51mi
236 Mansion St #2 Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	1.0	2076	$2,600	$1.25	44d	1	0.52mi
37 Roosevelt Ave Unit 1 Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	1.0	1250	$2,000	$1.60	21d	1	0.52mi
197 Winnikee Ave Unit 2 Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	1.0	1344	$2,600	$1.93	44d	1	0.54mi
15 Hoffman Ave Unit 2 Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	1.0	1400	$2,400	$1.71	14d	1	0.57mi
2 Park Pl Unit 2 Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	1.0	1380	$1,900	$1.38	24d	1	0.58mi
6mt Carmel PL Unit 2 Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	1.0	1250	$2,500	$2.00	24d	1	0.75mi
43 High St Unit 1 Poughkeepsie, NY	4.0	1.0	1250	$2,300	$1.84	24d	1	0.77mi
1 Dean Pl Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	2.5	1700	$4,000	$2.35	14d	1	0.82mi
6 Taconic St Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	2.5	1380	$3,300	$2.39	24d	1	0.83mi
32 Balding Ave Unit 2 Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	1.0	1226	$2,500	$2.04	44d	1	0.87mi
77 Marshall St Unit 1F Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	1.0	1050	$2,350	$2.24	44d	1	0.87mi
77 Marshall St Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	1.0	1050	$2,250	$2.14	44d	1	0.87mi
77 Marshall St Fl 1 Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	1.0	1050	$2,250	$2.14	24d	1	0.87mi
156 N Clinton St Apt 2 Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,800	$1.38	24d	1	0.89mi
1 Grove St Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,750	$1.46	44d	1	0.91mi
9 Bartlett St Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	1.0	1080	$2,000	$1.85	24d	1	0.91mi
50 Parker Ave Unit 3 Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	1.0	1300	$2,100	$1.62	44d	1	1.00mi
50 Parker Ave Unit 2 Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	1.0	1300	$2,150	$1.65	24d	1	1.00mi
36 Pine St Unit Three Bedroom Waitlist Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	2.0	1299	$3,300	$2.54	44d	1	1.00mi
40 Parker Ave Apt 1 Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$2,100	$1.91	44d	1	1.00mi
197 N Hamilton St #2 Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	1.0	1056	$2,200	$2.08	24d	1	1.02mi
50 Crestwood Blvd Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,595	$1.62	14d	1	1.17mi
32 Salt Point Tpke Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	2.5	1761	$3,000	$1.70	21d	1	1.27mi
61 Delafield St Unit 2 Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	1.0	1400	$2,600	$1.86	14d	1	1.29mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $40,000 Active 33 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $40,000 Active 32 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $40,000 Active 31 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $40,000 Active 30 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $40,000 Active 28 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $40,000 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $40,000 Active 24 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $40,000 Active 23 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $40,000 Active 22 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $40,000 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $40,000 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $40,000 Active 17 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $40,000 Active 16 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $40,000 Active 15 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $40,000 Active 14 DOM
16. 2026-05-17
    listed $40,000 Active
17. 2025-07-09
    historical
18. 2025-01-07
    listed $55,000 Active
19. 2024-10-22
    soldstatus $14,176 Closed 202-char remark

    Show marketing remark (202 chars)

    Don't miss this great opportunity! Level, vacant lot located on Church St (44/55 west) in Poughkeepsie, NY. Book your appointment to see this great property today! This is a FannieMae HomePath property.

20. 2024-09-20
    status Pending 202-char remark

    Show marketing remark (202 chars)

    Don't miss this great opportunity! Level, vacant lot located on Church St (44/55 west) in Poughkeepsie, NY. Book your appointment to see this great property today! This is a FannieMae HomePath property.

21. 2024-06-11
    price $22,000 202-char remark

    Show marketing remark (202 chars)

    Don't miss this great opportunity! Level, vacant lot located on Church St (44/55 west) in Poughkeepsie, NY. Book your appointment to see this great property today! This is a FannieMae HomePath property.

22. 2024-05-14
    price $25,000 202-char remark

    Show marketing remark (202 chars)

    Don't miss this great opportunity! Level, vacant lot located on Church St (44/55 west) in Poughkeepsie, NY. Book your appointment to see this great property today! This is a FannieMae HomePath property.

23. 2024-04-04
    listed $31,500 Active 202-char remark

    Show marketing remark (202 chars)

    Don't miss this great opportunity! Level, vacant lot located on Church St (44/55 west) in Poughkeepsie, NY. Book your appointment to see this great property today! This is a FannieMae HomePath property.

24. 2004-08-05
    soldstatus $125,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $796 · $66/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $796 · $66/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,042
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,241
• − Property taxes: −$796
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,323
• − Management: −$2,323
• − Depreciation: −$1,164
• Taxable income: $19,994
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,799
• After-tax cash flow: $14,631/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Poughkeepsie City School District
• NCES district ID: 3623760
• Math proficiency: 29% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $39,159
• Composite: 29.68/100
• National rank: #6459
• State rank: #559 of 590 in NY

Livability — Poughkeepsie

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #165
• US rank: #2577

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living C Crime F Employment D+ Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Poughkeepsie, NY
• County: Dutchess County · 188,048 people
• City population: 86,468
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• Population (ZIP): 44,164
• Household income: $63,652
• Rent vs Own: 56.8% rent · 43.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2891.0

Population outlook (Dutchess County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 291,768 people
• By 2030: 287,131 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 274,881 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 259,971 · -10.9%
• By 2075: 235,366 · -19.3%
• By 2100: 208,786 · -28.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Black 24% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 17% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 5% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Iranian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dutchess

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.4) · D 52.7% · R 47.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.2pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: 5.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.4 2020: D+9.6 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+6.6 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -210.62%
• Current HPI: 293.9789
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.67%
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-68.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Listed $40,000 FSBO.com
• 2025-07-09 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-07 Listed $55,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-22 Sold (MLS) $14,176 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-20 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-11 Price Changed $22,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-14 Price Changed $25,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-04 Listed $31,500 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-08-05 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-16.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $796 · +40.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.