525 Larch Ave · Pemberton, NJ 08015

$259,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,045 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 105 Days on market

Built 1958 0.46 ac lot $248/sqft · 11% below area Est $290k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.3/15.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come see this three-bedroom one-bath ranch nestled in a quiet area that back to the woods on an oversized lot (200x100). Home features a wood-burning fireplace, backs to the woods with a deck. The property is close to Joint Base. Property is being sold as is. Seller will not make any repairs.

Key facts

• 0.46 acre lot
• Built 1958
• Listed 104 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $259k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $270 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $259k).
• Recommended offer: $236k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 4.8% in Pemberton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#217 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: cost of living C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Pemberton Township School District (rural): math 12% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #382 of 472 in NJ (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 117 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,161 units permitted in Burlington County in 2024 (988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Burlington County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($236k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 27y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $56k; list at $259k implies a 363% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 57% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $235,690 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.47%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $289,994
• List price: $259,000
• Delta: -10.69%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2158 Hanover Blvd	0.41mi	3/1.0	1,056 (+1%)	4mo	$340,000	$322	76
30 Fern St	0.32mi	2/1.0 (-1)	973 (-7%)	2mo	$180,000	$185	67
101 Waverly St	0.29mi	3/1.0	1,152 (+10%)	6mo	$360,000	$313	64
3 Orchid St	0.32mi	3/1.0	960 (-8%)	10mo	$278,000	$290	63
800 Hickory Ave	0.35mi	3/1.0	927 (-11%)	3mo	$215,000	$232	62
118 Syringa St	0.73mi	3/1.0	1,080 (+3%)	2mo	$345,000	$319	58
50 Begonia St	0.49mi	2/1.0 (-1)	984 (-6%)	7mo	$220,000	$224	57
123 Lilac St	0.74mi	3/1.0	1,092 (+4%)	3mo	$374,000	$342	56
441 Goodwater Ave	0.46mi	3/1.0	1,184 (+13%)	2mo	$210,000	$177	55
2210 Hanover Blvd	0.43mi	3/1.0	1,142 (+9%)	12mo	$115,000	$101	54
1030 Hanover Blvd	0.48mi	3/1.0	1,170 (+12%)	5mo	$85,000	$73	53
808 Hickory Ave	0.39mi	2/2.0 (-1)	935 (-10%)	10mo	$270,000	$289	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-24,676
• Equity at exit: $38,618

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $972
• Equity at exit: $22,394

Cash invested: $72,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08015

• Home prices YoY: -23.1%
• Active inventory: 117
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,668 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,358
• Tax from tax record: −$371 /mo · $4,453/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$560
• Net cashflow: $270

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,326

Max offer price $259,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $417	-5% $344	+0% $270	+5% $197	+10% $124
Rent	-10% $60	-5% $165	+0% $270	+5% $376	+10% $481
Rate	-1.0pp $401	-0.5pp $336	base $270	+0.5pp $203	+1.0pp $135

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,750
• Closing costs: $7,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
837 Forest Ave Browns Mills, NJ	3.0	1.0	1334	$2,900	$2.17	6d	1	0.45mi
6 Rockland Ave Browns Mills, NJ	3.0	1.5	1475	$2,400	$1.63	44d	1	0.47mi
453 Bayberry St Browns Mills, NJ	3.0	1.5	1032	$2,700	$2.62	0d	1	0.78mi
601 E Lakeshore Dr Browns Mills, NJ	2.0	1.0	961	$2,595	$2.70	11d	1	0.80mi
27 Carlisle St Browns Mills, NJ	3.0	1.0	984	$2,900	$2.95	44d	1	1.19mi
126 Juniper Ave Browns Mills, NJ	4.0	1.0	1092	$2,500	$2.29	19d	1	1.21mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-03-10
   status Active 293-char remark

   Show marketing remark (293 chars)

   Come see this three-bedroom one-bath ranch nestled in a quiet area that back to the woods on an oversized lot (200x100). Home features a wood-burning fireplace, backs to the woods with a deck. The property is close to Joint Base. Property is being sold as is. Seller will not make any repairs.

2. 2026-02-28
   historical 293-char remark

   Show marketing remark (293 chars)

   Come see this three-bedroom one-bath ranch nestled in a quiet area that back to the woods on an oversized lot (200x100). Home features a wood-burning fireplace, backs to the woods with a deck. The property is close to Joint Base. Property is being sold as is. Seller will not make any repairs.

3. 2026-02-19
   status Active 293-char remark

   Show marketing remark (293 chars)

   Come see this three-bedroom one-bath ranch nestled in a quiet area that back to the woods on an oversized lot (200x100). Home features a wood-burning fireplace, backs to the woods with a deck. The property is close to Joint Base. Property is being sold as is. Seller will not make any repairs.

4. 2026-01-06
   status Pending 293-char remark

   Show marketing remark (293 chars)

   Come see this three-bedroom one-bath ranch nestled in a quiet area that back to the woods on an oversized lot (200x100). Home features a wood-burning fireplace, backs to the woods with a deck. The property is close to Joint Base. Property is being sold as is. Seller will not make any repairs.

5. 2026-01-02
   historical Active Under Contract 293-char remark

   Show marketing remark (293 chars)

   Come see this three-bedroom one-bath ranch nestled in a quiet area that back to the woods on an oversized lot (200x100). Home features a wood-burning fireplace, backs to the woods with a deck. The property is close to Joint Base. Property is being sold as is. Seller will not make any repairs.

6. 2025-12-18
   listed $259,000 Active 293-char remark

   Show marketing remark (293 chars)

   Come see this three-bedroom one-bath ranch nestled in a quiet area that back to the woods on an oversized lot (200x100). Home features a wood-burning fireplace, backs to the woods with a deck. The property is close to Joint Base. Property is being sold as is. Seller will not make any repairs.

7. 2025-12-17
   historical $259,000 293-char remark

   Show marketing remark (293 chars)

   Come see this three-bedroom one-bath ranch nestled in a quiet area that back to the woods on an oversized lot (200x100). Home features a wood-burning fireplace, backs to the woods with a deck. The property is close to Joint Base. Property is being sold as is. Seller will not make any repairs.

8. 2025-04-18
   historical $2,400
9. 2025-04-18
   listed $2,400
10. 2003-10-15
    soldstatus $55,900
11. 2003-03-04
    historical
12. 2002-09-09
    listed $69,900
13. 2001-08-01
    soldstatus $55,100
14. 2000-02-28
    historical
15. 1999-03-16
    listed $63,500
16. 1986-05-30
    soldstatus $52,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,453 · $371/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,451 · $454/mo
• Expected delta: +$998/yr (+$83/mo · 22.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 57% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,015
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,508
• − Property taxes: −$4,453
• − Insurance: −$1,295
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,561
• − Management: −$2,561
• − Depreciation: −$7,535
• Taxable loss: −$898
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$216
• After-tax cash flow: $3,461/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pemberton Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3412810
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $60,951
• Composite: 23.0/100
• National rank: #7979
• State rank: #382 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Pemberton

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #217
• US rank: #6053

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Browns Mills, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 19,143

Population outlook (Burlington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 453,425 people
• By 2030: 452,359 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 445,033 · -1.9%
• By 2050: 431,760 · -4.8%
• By 2075: 406,277 · -10.4%
• By 2100: 364,732 · -19.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 14% Black 13% Two or more races 10% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Burlington

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.6% · R 41.0% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.0pp toward R · 2008: 18.6pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+19.5 2016: D+14.8 2012: D+18.7 2008: D+18.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -98.84%
• Current HPI: 329.1731
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+398.1% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-10 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-28 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-19 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-06 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-02 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-18 Listed $259,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-17 Coming Soon $259,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-04-18 Rental Removed $2,400 BRIGHTMLS
• 2025-04-18 Listed for Rent $2,400 BRIGHTMLS
• 2003-10-15 Sold (Public Records) $55,900 Public Records
• 2003-03-04 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2002-09-09 Listed $69,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2001-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $55,100 Public Records
• 2000-02-28 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 1999-03-16 Listed $63,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 1986-05-30 Sold (Public Records) $52,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,453 · +6.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.