5005 Zuck Rd Lot 7 · Erie, PA 16506

$70,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,282 sqft · SingleFamily · 19 Days on market

Built 1987 Good condition $55/sqft · 35% above area Est $52k · 35% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Introducing this 1200 square foot residence situated in the desirable Millcreek Township. The property boasts three bedrooms, fresh vinyl flooring, and an expansive open layout encompassing the living room, kitchen, and dining space. For those desiring a more substantial master bedroom, there's the option to eliminate the wall separating the two bedrooms. Additionally, the home includes three decks, a beautifully landscaped yard, and a storage shed.

Key facts

• Front porch
• Back deck
• Built 1987

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• BACK DECK
• MILLCREEK VILLAGE COMMUNITY

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential single-family home; R-1 zoning
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Asphalt roof
• Exterior features: Storage; Shed(s); Landscaped lot; Level lot; See remarks for additional lot details

Interior

• Bedrooms: Total of 7 rooms (bedroom count not specified)
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Heating present
• Interior features: Laminate flooring; No basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $70k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $69k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 28.5% vs local median 5.2% in Erie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#109 in PA, #840 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
• Millcreek Township SD (suburban): math 46% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #105 of 539 in PA (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 96 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($69k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $70k implies a 75% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $68,950 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 28.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 79.25%
• DSCR: 4.53
• GRM: 2.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $51,863
• List price: $70,000
• Delta: 34.97%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4802 Wynburne Ave	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,320 (+3%)	18mo	$192,700	$146	54
2925 Harvest Bnd	0.63mi	3/1.5	1,356 (+6%)	7mo	$275,000	$203	53
4041 Calico Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,167 (-9%)	6mo	$275,000	$236	50
3003 Harvest Bnd	0.68mi	3/1.5	1,436 (+12%)	3mo	$287,900	$200	44
2015 Berkshire Ln	0.73mi	3/1.5	1,458 (+14%)	10mo	$277,500	$190	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 79.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.63×
• Total profit: $71,132
• Equity at exit: $10,437

10-year hold

• IRR: 82.9%
• Equity multiple: 9.58×
• Total profit: $168,234
• Equity at exit: $6,052

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16506

• Active inventory: 96
• Price-to-rent: 2.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,251 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$88 /mo · $1,050/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$473
• Net cashflow: $1,294

Break-even live

Break-even rent $612

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 37%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4536 Hammocks Dr Unit 542401 Erie, PA	2.0	2.0	1327	$2,160	$1.63	44d	1	0.46mi
4536 Hammocks Dr Unit 536204 Erie, PA	3.0	2.0	1416	$2,275	$1.61	44d	1	0.46mi
4536 Hammocks Dr Unit 536404 Erie, PA	3.0	2.0	1416	$2,290	$1.62	44d	1	0.46mi
4500 Hammocks Dr Erie, PA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1312	$3,270	$2.49	44d	7	0.49mi
2857 Willowood Dr Unit 2901 Erie, PA	2.0	1.5	1300	$1,750	$1.35	44d	1	0.94mi
4024 Canterbury Dr Erie, PA	2.0	1.5	1044	$1,350	$1.29	44d	1	0.94mi
3158 W 40th St Erie, PA	2.0	2.0	1024	$1,280	$1.25	44d	1	1.03mi
1540 W 54th St Unit 156104 Erie, PA	2.0	1.0	952	$1,425	$1.50	44d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $70,000 Active 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $70,000 Active 18 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $70,000 Active 17 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $70,000 Active 16 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $70,000 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $70,000 Active 13 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $70,000 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-05-14
   listed $70,000 Active 335-char remark
9. 2026-01-02
   price $70,000
10. 2025-09-30
    listed $75,000 Active
11. 2024-06-10
    soldstatus $40,000 Closed

    Show marketing remark (453 chars)

    Introducing this 1200 square foot residence situated in the desirable Millcreek Township. The property boasts three bedrooms, fresh vinyl flooring, and an expansive open layout encompassing the living room, kitchen, and dining space. For those desiring a more substantial master bedroom, there's the option to eliminate the wall separating the two bedrooms. Additionally, the home includes three decks, a beautifully landscaped yard, and a storage shed.

12. 2024-05-24
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (453 chars)

    Introducing this 1200 square foot residence situated in the desirable Millcreek Township. The property boasts three bedrooms, fresh vinyl flooring, and an expansive open layout encompassing the living room, kitchen, and dining space. For those desiring a more substantial master bedroom, there's the option to eliminate the wall separating the two bedrooms. Additionally, the home includes three decks, a beautifully landscaped yard, and a storage shed.

13. 2024-05-21
    price $47,900

    Show marketing remark (453 chars)

    Introducing this 1200 square foot residence situated in the desirable Millcreek Township. The property boasts three bedrooms, fresh vinyl flooring, and an expansive open layout encompassing the living room, kitchen, and dining space. For those desiring a more substantial master bedroom, there's the option to eliminate the wall separating the two bedrooms. Additionally, the home includes three decks, a beautifully landscaped yard, and a storage shed.

14. 2024-05-15
    price $52,900

    Show marketing remark (453 chars)

    Introducing this 1200 square foot residence situated in the desirable Millcreek Township. The property boasts three bedrooms, fresh vinyl flooring, and an expansive open layout encompassing the living room, kitchen, and dining space. For those desiring a more substantial master bedroom, there's the option to eliminate the wall separating the two bedrooms. Additionally, the home includes three decks, a beautifully landscaped yard, and a storage shed.

15. 2024-05-11
    listed $54,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (453 chars)

    Introducing this 1200 square foot residence situated in the desirable Millcreek Township. The property boasts three bedrooms, fresh vinyl flooring, and an expansive open layout encompassing the living room, kitchen, and dining space. For those desiring a more substantial master bedroom, there's the option to eliminate the wall separating the two bedrooms. Additionally, the home includes three decks, a beautifully landscaped yard, and a storage shed.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,010
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$1,050
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,161
• − Management: −$2,161
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $15,331
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,679
• After-tax cash flow: $11,853/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This mobile home is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. It offers a good balance of curb appeal and interior comfort, making it a solid investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Neat landscaping enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property.
• Resale Appliance upgrades — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and renters.
• Resale Window treatments — Updated window treatments can improve curb appeal and energy efficiency.
• Resale Flooring replacement — Replacing worn-out flooring can significantly enhance the home's appearance and value.
• Resale Kitchen and bathroom updates — Updating these spaces can attract more buyers and renters, especially in a mobile home setting.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Neat landscaping enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑
• Resale Appliance upgrades — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Resale Window treatments — Updated window treatments can improve curb appeal and energy efficiency. ↑
• Resale Flooring replacement — Replacing worn-out flooring can significantly enhance the home's appearance and value. ↑
• Resale Kitchen and bathroom updates — Updating these spaces can attract more buyers and renters, especially in a mobile home setting. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Millcreek Township SD
• NCES district ID: 4215330
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $55,734
• Composite: 47.82/100
• National rank: #2224
• State rank: #105 of 539 in PA

Livability — Erie

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #109
• US rank: #840

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Erie County · 92,215 people
• City population: 92,215
• Metro: Erie, PA
• Population (ZIP): 24,070
• Household income: $81,060
• Rent vs Own: 31.5% rent · 68.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 894.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 272,159 people
• By 2030: 266,299 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 250,987 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 234,925 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 199,164 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 162,985 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 5% Asian 4% Black 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.0% · R 50.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: -1.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.0 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+16.9 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -152.21%
• Current HPI: 228.7506
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Erie, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+27.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Relisted — GEBOR
• 2026-05-14 Listed $70,000 GEBOR
• 2026-01-02 Price Changed $70,000 GEBOR
• 2025-09-30 Listed $75,000 GEBOR
• 2024-06-10 Sold (MLS) $40,000 GEBOR
• 2024-05-24 Pending — GEBOR
• 2024-05-21 Price Changed $47,900 GEBOR
• 2024-05-15 Price Changed $52,900 GEBOR
• 2024-05-11 Listed $54,900 GEBOR