2906 Bales Ave · Kansas City, MO 64128

$94,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,438 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 235 Days on market

Built 1925 4,404 sqft lot $66/sqft · 15% above area Est $134k · 29% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.1/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming and move-in ready, this 3-bedroom, 1-bath home in Kansas City, MO features fresh updates throughout, including neutral décor and solid-surface countertops in the modern kitchen. Enjoy a covered front porch for relaxing, a spacious full basement for storage or expansion, and a private second-floor primary bedroom for added comfort.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• 4,404 sq ft lot
• Built 1925

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• SPACIOUS FULL BASEMENT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $472 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.3% vs local median 3.9% in Kansas City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#28 in MO, #2,671 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools C-, crime F.
• Kansas City 33 (urban): math 12% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #308 of 324 in MO (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.7%/yr); 86 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 4,002 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (2,271 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($36k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($656 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Jackson County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 4.7% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 235 days — a 12% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $55k (37%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $83,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 235 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.34%
• DSCR: 1.95
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $134,296
• List price: $94,900
• Delta: -29.34%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2922 E 30th St	0.31mi	3/1.0	1,364 (-5%)	3mo	$73,600	$54	74
2850 Mersington Ave	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,382 (-4%)	10mo	$119,500	$86	70
3706 E 29th St	0.16mi	3/1.0	1,248 (-13%)	2mo	$95,000	$76	69
3023 College Ave	0.18mi	3/1.5	1,320 (-8%)	9mo	$40,000	$30	68
2512 Mersington Ave	0.55mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,500 (+4%)	6mo	$72,000	$48	55
3026 Walrond Ave	0.25mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,244 (-14%)	8mo	$55,000	$44	54
3341 Chestnut Ave	0.70mi	3/1.0	1,366 (-5%)	10mo	$80,000	$59	51
2334 Walrond Ave	0.72mi	3/1.5	1,370 (-5%)	8mo	$59,000	$43	50
3422 Askew Ave	0.66mi	3/1.0	1,226 (-15%)	4mo	$114,900	$94	41
2636 Spruce St	0.58mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,282 (-11%)	7mo	$199,000	$155	40
2455 Montgall Ave	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,256 (-13%)	13mo	$170,000	$135	31
2456 Spruce Ave	0.72mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,625 (+13%)	11mo	$105,000	$65	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 4.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 41.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.16×
• Total profit: $84,006
• Equity at exit: $85,493

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.0%
• Equity multiple: 9.60×
• Total profit: $228,563
• Equity at exit: $184,370

Cash invested: $26,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64128

• Home prices YoY: 21.6%
• Rents YoY: 4.7%
• Active inventory: 86
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,336 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$46 /mo · $548/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$281
• Net cashflow: $472

Break-even live

Break-even rent $738

Max offer price $94,900

Occupancy floor 60%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,725
• Closing costs: $2,847
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3220 E 30th St Unit 1A Kansas City, MO	2.0	1.0	1214	$950	$0.78	43d	1	0.15mi
3205 E 31st St Kansas City, MO	4.0	1.0	1800	$1,325	$0.74	23d	1	0.29mi
2846 Myrtle Ave Kansas City, MO	3.0	2.0	1705	$1,350	$0.79	16d	1	0.33mi
2637 E 29th St Unit 3 Kansas City, MO	2.0	1.0	954	$1,050	$1.10	43d	1	0.43mi
3305 Askew Ave Kansas City, MO	3.0	1.5	1428	$1,450	$1.02	23d	1	0.51mi
3304 Agnes Ave Unit Downstairs Kansas City, MO	3.0	1.0	1150	$1,095	$0.95	43d	1	0.58mi
2419 Bales Ave Kansas City, MO	3.0	1.5	1116	$1,500	$1.34	3d	1	0.63mi
3330 Agnes Ave Kansas City, MO	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,410	$1.41	43d	1	0.63mi
2413 College Ave Kansas City, MO	2.0	2.0	1022	$1,225	$1.20	23d	1	0.65mi
3419 College Ave Kansas City, MO	4.0	1.0	1608	$1,300	$0.81	2d	1	0.66mi
3346 Agnes Ave Kansas City, MO	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,200	$0.86	7d	1	0.67mi
3332 Norton Ave Kansas City, MO	3.0	1.0	1272	$1,350	$1.06	43d	1	0.69mi
2708 Olive St Kansas City, MO	4.0	2.0	1585	$1,500	$0.95	17d	1	0.70mi
2424 Norton Ave Unit B Kansas City, MO	3.0	1.0	982	$1,150	$1.17	16d	1	0.70mi
3032 Elmwood Ave Kansas City, MO	3.0	1.0	1027	$1,275	$1.24	7d	1	0.73mi
2724 Brooklyn Ave Kansas City, MO	3.0	2.5	1398	$1,440	$1.03	23d	1	0.81mi
3434 Chestnut Ave Kansas City, MO	2.0	1.0	1512	$1,100	$0.73	10d	1	0.81mi
3525 Monroe Ave Kansas City, MO	3.0	2.0	1569	$1,500	$0.96	43d	1	0.83mi
3009 Garfield Ave Kansas City, MO	3.0	1.5	1334	$1,425	$1.07	43d	1	0.83mi
3233 Park Ave Unit 2 Kansas City, MO	2.0	1.0	950	$1,000	$1.05	23d	1	0.83mi
3233 Park Ave Unit 1 Kansas City, MO	2.0	1.0	950	$1,075	$1.13	43d	1	0.83mi
3524 Bellefontaine Ave Kansas City, MO	3.0	1.0	1228	$1,350	$1.10	43d	1	0.84mi
2120 Linwood Blvd Kansas City, MO	3.0	1.0	1326	$1,400	$1.06	43d	1	0.86mi
3414 Elmwood Ave Kansas City, MO	4.0	1.0	1109	$1,300	$1.17	16d	1	0.96mi
2900 E 21st St Kansas City, MO	3.0	1.5	897	$1,650	$1.84	16d	1	0.99mi
3630 Agnes Ave Kansas City, MO	3.0	2.0	1448	$1,500	$1.04	10d	1	0.99mi
3201 E 20th St Kansas City, MO	2.0	1.0	900	$1,050	$1.17	23d	1	1.03mi
3713 Cleveland Ave Kansas City, MO	4.0	1.0	1256	$1,250	$1.00	16d	1	1.05mi
5108 E 30th St Kansas City, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,400	$1.46	3d	1	1.06mi
3739 Bales Ave Kansas City, MO	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,575	$1.12	23d	1	1.10mi
2018 E 35th St Kansas City, MO	3.0	2.0	1502	$1,800	$1.20	3d	1	1.11mi
2002 E 35th St Kansas City, MO	3.0	2.0	1426	$1,295	$0.91	7d	1	1.13mi
3710 Wabash Ave Unit 2S Kansas City, MO	2.0	1.0	875	$850	$0.97	23d	1	1.14mi
3305 E 19th St Kansas City, MO	2.0	1.0	1500	$1,200	$0.80	43d	1	1.14mi
2003 Wabash Ave Unit B Kansas City, MO	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,095	$0.91	23d	1	1.15mi
3818 Indiana Ave Kansas City, MO	3.0	1.5	1223	$1,147	$0.94	43d	1	1.16mi
3817 S Benton Ave Kansas City, MO	4.0	1.5	1380	$1,650	$1.20	23d	1	1.20mi
3243 Denver Dr Kansas City, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0	862	$1,226	$1.42	43d	1	1.22mi
1905 Kensington Ave Kansas City, MO	3.0	2.0	1285	$1,325	$1.03	23d	1	1.24mi
3840 Bellefontaine Ave Kansas City, MO	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,500	$1.00	16d	1	1.24mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-04-13
   price $109,900 348-char remark

   Show marketing remark (348 chars)

   Charming and move-in ready, this 3-bedroom, 1-bath home in Kansas City, MO features fresh updates throughout, including neutral décor and solid-surface countertops in the modern kitchen. Enjoy a covered front porch for relaxing, a spacious full basement for storage or expansion, and a private second-floor primary bedroom for added comfort.

2. 2026-01-13
   price $124,900 348-char remark

   Show marketing remark (348 chars)

   Charming and move-in ready, this 3-bedroom, 1-bath home in Kansas City, MO features fresh updates throughout, including neutral décor and solid-surface countertops in the modern kitchen. Enjoy a covered front porch for relaxing, a spacious full basement for storage or expansion, and a private second-floor primary bedroom for added comfort.

3. 2025-11-18
   price $134,900 348-char remark

   Show marketing remark (348 chars)

   Charming and move-in ready, this 3-bedroom, 1-bath home in Kansas City, MO features fresh updates throughout, including neutral décor and solid-surface countertops in the modern kitchen. Enjoy a covered front porch for relaxing, a spacious full basement for storage or expansion, and a private second-floor primary bedroom for added comfort.

4. 2025-10-03
   listed $149,900 Active 348-char remark

   Show marketing remark (348 chars)

   Charming and move-in ready, this 3-bedroom, 1-bath home in Kansas City, MO features fresh updates throughout, including neutral décor and solid-surface countertops in the modern kitchen. Enjoy a covered front porch for relaxing, a spacious full basement for storage or expansion, and a private second-floor primary bedroom for added comfort.

5. 2025-02-05
   historical
6. 2025-01-31
   listed $150,000 Active
7. 2024-10-20
   historical $1,050
8. 2024-10-10
   price $1,050
9. 2024-08-08
   listed $1,095
10. 2017-02-01
    soldstatus
11. 2009-05-07
    soldstatus
12. 2009-05-07
    soldstatus
13. 2009-02-27
    listed $8,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $548 · $46/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $921 · $77/mo
• Expected delta: +$373/yr (+$31/mo · 68.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,030
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,316
• − Property taxes: −$548
• − Insurance: −$474
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,282
• − Management: −$1,282
• − Depreciation: −$2,761
• Taxable income: $4,367
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,048
• After-tax cash flow: $4,622/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kansas City 33
• NCES district ID: 2916400
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $35,227
• Composite: 14.8/100
• National rank: #9387
• State rank: #308 of 324 in MO

Livability — Kansas City

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #28
• US rank: #2671

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kansas City, MO
• County: Jackson County · 687,798 people
• City population: 439,467
• Metro: Kansas City, MO-KS
• Population (ZIP): 11,912
• Household income: $36,088
• Rent vs Own: 52.5% rent · 47.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 946.0

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 719,589 people
• By 2030: 731,456 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 746,689 · +3.8%
• By 2050: 749,289 · +4.1%
• By 2075: 736,227 · +2.3%
• By 2100: 668,210 · -7.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 79% Hispanic / Latino 9% White 8% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Swedish 1% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: D (+19.3) · D 58.9% · R 39.5% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.1pp toward R · 2008: 25.4pp · 2024: 19.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.3 2020: D+22.0 2016: D+16.6 2012: D+19.0 2008: D+25.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 73.41%
• Current HPI: 412.6862
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• Metro: Kansas City, MO-KS
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+1273.8% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $109,900 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-13 Price Changed $124,900 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-18 Price Changed $134,900 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-03 Listed $149,900 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-05 Listing Removed — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-31 Listed $150,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-20 Rental Removed $1,050 SHOWMOJO
• 2024-10-10 Price Changed $1,050 SHOWMOJO
• 2024-08-08 Listed for Rent $1,095 SHOWMOJO
• 2017-02-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2009-05-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2009-05-07 Sold (MLS) — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-02-27 Listed $8,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $548 · -22.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.