The Bowen Plan · Cantonment, FL 32533

$282,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,504 sqft · SingleFamily · 391 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 8% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Bowen Floorplan is a cozy cottage-style home features 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, all on one level, with 1,504 square feet of living space. Stylish and comfortable, this home is designed to suit your needs. Additionally, it includes a brand-new one-car garage. This home features a fantastic open-concept main area, seamlessly connecting the kitchen, dining, and living rooms to the outdoor space. Enjoy cooking in the kitchen, which overlooks the dining area and the great room. The split bedroom plan ensures just the right amount of privacy. The primary bedroom serves as a retreat, featuring an ensuite bath and a spacious open closet. The second and third bedrooms are located away from the primary bedroom and are separated by a second full bathroom with a linen closet. The fourth bedroom is conveniently situated across from the second bedroom and kitchen. A laundry room, located just past this bedroom and across from the kitchen, makes cleanup a breeze. Each home is built with our Smart Home Connected package. This plan is designed with modern amenities and the convenience of everyday life in mind. Schedule your tour of the Bowen today! The Smart Home Connected package includes a KwikSet keyless entry, Skybell doorbell, automated front porch lighting, an Echo Dot device, and Quolsys touch panel which can be used to control your lighting, thermostat, front door and more. We invite you to schedule a personal tour of our homes at Sanctuary.

Key facts

• Laundry room
• Ensuite bath
• Spacious open closet

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT MAIN AREA
• SMART HOME CONNECTED PACKAGE
• ENSUITE BATH
• SPACIOUS OPEN CLOSET
• LAUNDRY ROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $282,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $308,847.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $283k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-335 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $260k (8.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $228k (19.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $228k (19.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Escambia (suburban): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #56 of 73 in FL (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Jim Allen Elementary School (math 54% / reading 53%, grade C, #949 of 2,144 statewide, top 45%, 677 students, 61% FRL); Ransom Middle School (math 54% / reading 52%, grade C+, #209 of 571 statewide, top 37%, 1,224 students, 49% FRL); J. M. Tate Senior High School (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #207 of 667 statewide, top 32%, 2,110 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: 842 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 62d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,479 units permitted in Escambia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($86k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Escambia County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 391 days — a 12% lower offer ($249k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $227,756 (19.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 391 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.65%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $308,847
• List price: $282,900
• Delta: -8.40%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2172 Sandhill St	0.21mi	4/2.0	1,504 (0%)	2mo	$259,900	$173	89
2186 Sandhill St	0.23mi	4/2.0	1,504 (0%)	1mo	$269,900	$179	88
1933 Caracara St	0.05mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,568 (+4%)	3mo	$279,900	$179	83
2176 Sandhill St	0.22mi	4/2.0	1,417 (-6%)	0mo	$256,900	$181	80
2111 Sandhill St	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,568 (+4%)	3mo	$275,900	$176	80
2042 Limpkin St	0.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,568 (+4%)	3mo	$277,900	$177	80
2196 Sandhill St	0.23mi	4/2.0	1,417 (-6%)	0mo	$244,900	$173	79
2065 Limpkin St	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,568 (+4%)	1mo	$279,900	$179	78
4 Coweta Rd	0.10mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,607 (+7%)	2mo	$356,041	$222	78
2168 Sandhill St	0.20mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,281 (-15%)	2mo	$249,900	$195	59
2252 Kildeer St	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,697 (+13%)	0mo	$302,000	$178	53
552 Cedar Tree Ln	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,278 (-15%)	2mo	$248,000	$194	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-71,355
• Equity at exit: $46,050

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.03×
• Total profit: $-89,477
• Equity at exit: $26,703

Cash invested: $86,477 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 26 active · 43 under contract
• Months of supply: 3.6 mo (28%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $310,900 ($184/sqft)
• Median days on market: 75 d
• This list price: 12% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +11.8% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 32533

• Home prices YoY: -14.6%
• Active inventory: 842
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,278 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,620
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$386 /mo · $4,633/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$478
• Net cashflow: $-335

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,702

Max offer price $260,358

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-122	-5% $-228	+0% $-335	+5% $-442	+10% $-549
Rent	-10% $-515	-5% $-425	+0% $-335	+5% $-245	+10% $-155
Rate	-1.0pp $-180	-0.5pp $-257	base $-335	+0.5pp $-415	+1.0pp $-497

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,212
• Closing costs: $9,265
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2107 Sandhill St Cantonment, FL	4.0	2.0	1791	$2,300	$1.28	62d	1	0.13mi
20 Spoonbill St Cantonment, FL	3.0	2.0	1281	$1,800	$1.41	62d	1	0.23mi
1021 Sandhills Ln Cantonment, FL	4.0	2.5	1891	$2,100	$1.11	6d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $282,900 Active 391 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $282,900 Active 390 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $282,900 Active 389 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $282,900 Active 388 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $282,900 Active 387 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $282,900 Active 386 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $282,900 Active 385 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $282,900 Active 384 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $282,900 Active 383 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $282,900 Active 382 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $282,900 Active 381 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $282,900 Active 380 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $282,900 Active 379 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $282,900 Active 378 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $282,900 Active 372 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $282,900 Active 371 DOM
17. 2026-09-03
    days on market $282,900 Active 370 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $282,900 Active 367 DOM
19. 2026-08-30
    days on market $282,900 Active 366 DOM
20. 2026-08-29
    days on market $282,900 Active 365 DOM
21. 2026-08-28
    days on market $282,900 Active 364 DOM
22. 2026-08-27
    days on market $282,900 Active 363 DOM
23. 2026-08-26
    days on market $282,900 Active 362 DOM
24. 2026-08-25
    days on market $282,900 Active 361 DOM
25. 2026-08-24
    days on market $282,900 Active 360 DOM
26. 2026-08-23
    days on market $282,900 Active 359 DOM
27. 2026-08-22
    days on market $282,900 Active 358 DOM
28. 2026-08-21
    days on market $282,900 Active 357 DOM
29. 2026-08-20
    days on market $282,900 Active 356 DOM
30. 2026-08-19
    days on market $282,900 Active 355 DOM
31. 2026-08-18
    days on market $282,900 Active 354 DOM
32. 2026-08-17
    days on market $282,900 Active 353 DOM
33. 2026-08-16
    days on market $282,900 Active 352 DOM
34. 2026-08-15
    days on market $282,900 Active 351 DOM
35. 2026-08-14
    days on market $282,900 Active 350 DOM
36. 2026-08-13
    days on market $282,900 Active 349 DOM
37. 2026-08-12
    days on market $282,900 Active 348 DOM
38. 2026-08-11
    days on market $282,900 Active 347 DOM
39. 2026-08-10
    days on market $282,900 Active 346 DOM
40. 2026-08-09
    days on market $282,900 Active 345 DOM
41. 2026-08-08
    days on market $282,900 Active 344 DOM
42. 2026-08-07
    days on market $282,900 Active 343 DOM
43. 2026-08-06
    days on market $282,900 Active 342 DOM
44. 2026-08-05
    days on market $282,900 Active 341 DOM
45. 2026-08-04
    days on market $282,900 Active 340 DOM
46. 2026-08-03
    days on market $282,900 Active 339 DOM
47. 2026-07-31
    days on market $282,900 Active 336 DOM
48. 2026-07-30
    days on market $282,900 Active 335 DOM
49. 2026-07-29
    days on market $282,900 Active 334 DOM
50. 2026-07-27
    days on market $282,900 Active 332 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,331
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,300
• − Property taxes: −$4,633
• − Insurance: −$1,544
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,186
• − Management: −$2,186
• − Depreciation: −$8,985
• Taxable loss: −$9,504
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,281
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,740/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,520–$22,560 screening

This single-family home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a cosmetic rehab level and requires minor maintenance and repairs. The highest-ROI updates would be to paint the exterior and replace light fixtures to enhance curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace light fixtures — Modernizes and improves energy efficiency ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and energy savings ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 51/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Jim Allen Elementary School C FL #949/2,144 Nat'l #10,846/41,679 Middle Ransom Middle School C+ FL #209/571 Nat'l #2,873/14,009 High J. M. Tate Senior High School D- FL #207/667 Nat'l #6,330/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Escambia
• NCES district ID: 1200510
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,649
• Composite: 36.04/100
• National rank: #4773
• State rank: #56 of 73 in FL

Livability — Cantonment

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Escambia County · 334,637 people
• City population: 31,860
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,860
• Household income: $86,087
• Rent vs Own: 15.4% rent · 84.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 8% of renters

---

Population outlook (Escambia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 334,637 people
• By 2030: 345,779 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 364,828 · +9.0%
• By 2050: 378,514 · +13.1%
• By 2075: 403,220 · +20.5%
• By 2100: 386,125 · +15.4%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 12% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Guatemala, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Vietnamese 1%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Escambia

• 2024 margin: R (+19.5) · D 39.7% · R 59.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.2pp no change · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -19.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.5 2020: R+15.1 2016: R+20.6 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.13%
• Current HPI: 259.2605
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-8.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $282,900 Zillow
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $278,900 Zillow
• 2026-03-14 Price Changed $275,900 Zillow
• 2026-02-01 Price Changed $272,900 Zillow
• 2025-12-12 Price Changed $269,900 Zillow
• 2025-10-28 Price Changed $310,900 Zillow
• 2025-08-29 Listed $307,900 Zillow