127 Lelon Ln · Carter, TX 76082

$210,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,128 sqft · Manufactured public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1997 1.00 ac lot Est $387k · 46% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Seller offering $10,000 towards updates or closing costs!!! Spacious and full of potential, this 5-bedroom, 3-bathroom home offers plenty of room to grow both inside and out. Newer decks with ramps for easier access for all. The thoughtfully designed floor plan includes a convenient Jack-and-Jill bathroom, generous living spaces, and a versatile flex room that could serve as a home office, formal dining room, playroom, or second living area. Located outside the city limits with no known restrictions, this property provides the freedom and flexibility many buyers are looking for. While the home could benefit from some TLC, it presents an excellent opportunity to add your personal touch and

Key facts

• Flex room
• 1 acre lot
• Built 1997

Tags

• JACK-AND-JILL BATHROOM
• FLEX ROOM
• LOCATED OUTSIDE CITY LIMITS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Horse permitted; Easements: Access and Other; No known restrictions
• Financial info: Listing terms: Cash, Conventional, FHA, VA; Loan type noted as 'Treat As Clear'; No second mortgage indicated
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Circular driveway; No garage or covered/carport spaces indicated
• Security: Video surveillance noted for visitors/recording
• Utilities: Co-op electric; Co-op water; Propane; Septic; Outside city limits
• Home design: Manufactured home; One level; Accessible approach with ramp; Property attached
• Construction: Built in 1997; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; RV/boat parking; Cleared acreage (1.0 acre); Acreage lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms (primary bedroom on level 1)
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Ceiling fan(s); Wall/window unit(s); Other heating
• Interior features: Flat screen wiring; High-speed internet available; Pantry; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $570 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $210k).
• Recommended offer: $207k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 2.5% in Carter — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Springtown ISD (town): math 36% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #435 of 826 in TX (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Goshen Creek El (math 47% / reading 43%, grade D-, #1,133 of 4,322 statewide, top 27%, 645 students, 42% FRL).
• Market conditions: 528 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 437 units permitted in Parker County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($92k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Parker County population projected at +32% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $59k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $206,850 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.64%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $387,296
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7133 Hutcheson Hill Rd	0.31mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,063 (-3%)	18mo	$295,000	$143	56
7300 Prather Rd	0.74mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,836 (-14%)	17mo	$335,000	$182	20

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $2,227
• Equity at exit: $31,312

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.82×
• Total profit: $48,461
• Equity at exit: $18,157

Cash invested: $58,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76082

• Home prices YoY: -21.5%
• Active inventory: 528
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,364 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$109 /mo · $1,307/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$497
• Net cashflow: $570

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,643

Max offer price $210,000

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $689	-5% $630	+0% $570	+5% $511	+10% $451
Rent	-10% $383	-5% $477	+0% $570	+5% $664	+10% $757
Rate	-1.0pp $676	-0.5pp $624	base $570	+0.5pp $516	+1.0pp $460

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,500
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $210,000 Active 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $210,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $210,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $210,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $210,000 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $210,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $210,000 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $210,000 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $210,000 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $210,000 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $210,000 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    remarks 699-char remark
13. 2026-06-03
    listed $210,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,307 · $109/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,843 · $320/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,536/yr (+$211/mo · 194.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 24% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,372
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$1,307
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,270
• − Management: −$2,270
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable income: $3,603
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$865
• After-tax cash flow: $5,977/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Springtown ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841280
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $56,136
• Composite: 33.41/100
• National rank: #5474
• State rank: #435 of 826 in TX

Livability — Carter

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carter, TX
• County: Parker County · 144,797 people
• City population: 24,880
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 24,880
• Household income: $92,485
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 333.0

Population outlook (Parker County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 147,426 people
• By 2030: 157,863 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 177,519 · +20.4%
• By 2050: 194,786 · +32.1%
• By 2075: 238,799 · +62.0%
• By 2100: 264,126 · +79.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Parker

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.4) · D 16.4% · R 82.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -55.2pp · 2024: -66.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.4 2020: R+64.4 2016: R+67.5 2012: R+65.8 2008: R+55.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.65%
• Current HPI: 262.1991
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+412.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $210,000 NTREIS
• 2004-03-19 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2004-03-15 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2004-02-05 Listed $41,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,307 · +14.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.