4431 Jarvis St · Lubbock, TX 79416

$164,950

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,595 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1960 8,059 sqft lot $103/sqft · 32% below area Est $241k · 32% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This wonderful 3 bedroom home in the north Lubbock neighborhood of Depauw Mclarty boasts 2 spacious living areas, one with a fireplace, a cozy kitchen, 3 spacious bedrooms, and an incredible backyard. The backyard comes complete with a large covered patio, great landscaping with plenty of grassy space, and a 2-room workshop. Come see this home before it's too late!

Key facts

• 8,059 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1960

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Garage faces front; On-street parking available
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built with composition roof
• Exterior features: No notable exterior features listed; Composition roof

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning (electric); Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $101 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $155k (6.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $155k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 464 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($162k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $155,114 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.61%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $241,352
• List price: $164,950
• Delta: -31.63%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4918 Marshall St	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,516 (-5%)	23mo	$249,900	$165	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-21,528
• Equity at exit: $24,595

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-15,376
• Equity at exit: $14,262

Cash invested: $46,186 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79416

• Home prices YoY: -20.0%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 464
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,551 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$191 /mo · $2,292/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$326
• Net cashflow: $101

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,424

Max offer price $164,950

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $194	-5% $147	+0% $101	+5% $54	+10% $7
Rent	-10% $-22	-5% $39	+0% $101	+5% $162	+10% $223
Rate	-1.0pp $184	-0.5pp $143	base $101	+0.5pp $58	+1.0pp $14

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,238
• Closing costs: $4,948
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4412 Kemper St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1157	$1,250	$1.08	44d	1	0.11mi
4605 Harvard St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1362	$1,400	$1.03	22d	1	0.16mi
4615 Grinnell St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.5	1446	$1,474	$1.02	44d	1	0.23mi
4615 Grinnell St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.5	1446	$1,700	$1.18	14d	1	0.23mi
4530 Marshall St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1106	$1,600	$1.45	14d	1	0.25mi
4634 Fordham St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1995	$1,850	$0.93	14d	1	0.32mi
1415 N Knoxville Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0	1291	$934	$0.72	14d	1	0.91mi
5234 Kemper St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1821	$2,400	$1.32	44d	1	0.99mi
5234 Kemper St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1821	$2,200	$1.21	14d	1	0.99mi
3444 Itasca St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.5	1728	$1,600	$0.93	44d	1	0.99mi
4802 Amherst St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1824	$2,300	$1.26	44d	1	1.01mi
3430 Itasca St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.5	1728	$1,600	$0.93	14d	1	1.04mi
908 N Belmont Ave Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1366	$1,175	$0.86	44d	1	1.16mi
906 N Belmont Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1366	$1,225	$0.90	44d	1	1.16mi
602 N Belmont Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1370	$1,325	$0.97	14d	3	1.19mi
3318 Itasca St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.5	1068	$950	$0.89	14d	1	1.20mi
3307 Erskine St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1120	$1,000	$0.89	22d	1	1.25mi
5420 Kemper St Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1381	$1,175	$0.85	44d	1	1.30mi
3119 Jarvis St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1352	$1,025	$0.76	14d	1	1.35mi
5504 Itasca St Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1445	$1,500	$1.04	44d	1	1.35mi
5501 Jarvis St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1445	$1,450	$1.00	22d	1	1.35mi
522 N Chicago Ave Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1370	$1,200	$0.88	44d	1	1.35mi
310 N Brentwood Ave Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1400	$1,250	$0.89	44d	1	1.35mi
503 N Brentwood Ave Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1370	$1,200	$0.88	44d	1	1.37mi
516 N Chicago Ave Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1370	$1,200	$0.88	44d	1	1.37mi
1217 N Chicago Ave Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1375	$1,400	$1.02	44d	1	1.37mi
5506 Itasca St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1445	$1,500	$1.04	44d	1	1.38mi
1309 N Chicago Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,745	$1.20	14d	1	1.38mi
5511 Itasca St Lubbock, TX	4.0	4.0	1348	$2,000	$1.48	14d	1	1.38mi
1315 N Chicago Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,745	$1.20	22d	1	1.38mi
5513 Itasca St Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1368	$1,500	$1.10	44d	1	1.39mi
5515 Kemper St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,425	$1.06	44d	1	1.42mi
505 N Chicago Ave Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1435	$1,325	$0.92	44d	1	1.42mi
505 N Chicago Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1435	$1,425	$0.99	44d	1	1.42mi
1303 N Clinton Ave Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1375	$1,495	$1.09	44d	1	1.42mi
533 N Clinton Ave Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1340	$1,300	$0.97	44d	1	1.42mi
523 N Clinton Ave Unit Clinton Side A Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1435	$1,295	$0.90	22d	1	1.44mi
5516 Itasca St Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1360	$1,500	$1.10	44d	1	1.44mi
5516 Jarvis St Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1831	$1,375	$0.75	44d	1	1.44mi
305 N Chicago Ave Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1294	$1,200	$0.93	44d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $164,950 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $164,950 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $164,950 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $164,950 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $164,950 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $164,950 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $164,950 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $164,950 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $164,950 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $164,950 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $164,950 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on marketlisting id $164,950 Active 1 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,000 Active 125 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 124 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 123 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $165,000 Active 122 DOM
17. 2026-01-28
    listed $165,000 Active 781-char remark
18. 2023-06-22
    historical
19. 2017-12-15
    soldstatus
20. 2017-12-08
    soldstatus 367-char remark

    Show marketing remark (367 chars)

    This wonderful 3 bedroom home in the north Lubbock neighborhood of Depauw Mclarty boasts 2 spacious living areas, one with a fireplace, a cozy kitchen, 3 spacious bedrooms, and an incredible backyard. The backyard comes complete with a large covered patio, great landscaping with plenty of grassy space, and a 2-room workshop. Come see this home before it's too late!

21. 2017-10-11
    listed $92,000 367-char remark

    Show marketing remark (367 chars)

    This wonderful 3 bedroom home in the north Lubbock neighborhood of Depauw Mclarty boasts 2 spacious living areas, one with a fireplace, a cozy kitchen, 3 spacious bedrooms, and an incredible backyard. The backyard comes complete with a large covered patio, great landscaping with plenty of grassy space, and a 2-room workshop. Come see this home before it's too late!

22. 2010-02-09
    soldstatus
23. 2005-07-20
    soldstatus
24. 2001-02-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,292 · $191/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,019 · $252/mo
• Expected delta: +$726/yr (+$61/mo · 31.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,614
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,240
• − Property taxes: −$2,292
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,489
• − Management: −$1,489
• − Depreciation: −$4,799
• Taxable loss: −$1,520
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$365
• After-tax cash flow: $1,572/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 36,442
• Household income: $63,896
• Rent vs Own: 51.5% rent · 48.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 2214.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 35% Two or more races 14% Black 9% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 13% Chinese 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.94%
• Current HPI: 227.7841
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.21%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+79.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $164,950 LARMLS
• 2023-06-22 Rental Removed — APPFOLIO
• 2017-12-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-12-08 Sold (MLS) — LARMLS
• 2017-10-11 Listed $92,000 LARMLS
• 2010-02-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-07-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-02-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,292 · -16.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.