17210 Chestnut Dr · Belton, MO 64012

$185,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1960 0.40 ac lot Est $218k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.8/30.0
• ARV discount +14.4/15.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 0.4 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1960

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Annual tax amount reported

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: City/public water (verify); Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; Above-grade living area reported as 1,200
• Construction: Frame construction; Composition roof; Estimated age: 51–75 years
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 17,424 square feet

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Ranch floor plan; Workshop; Crawl space basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $320 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $185k).
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 4.7% in Belton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#52 in MO, #3,782 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, commute F.
• Belton 124 (suburban): math 28% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #216 of 324 in MO (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Wilckens Steam Acad @Hillcrest (math 44% / reading 47%, grade D-, #405 of 1,115 statewide, top 37%, 474 students, 37% FRL); Belton Middle School (math 24% / reading 35%, grade F, #291 of 391 statewide, top 76%, 639 students, 46% FRL); Belton High (math 27% / reading 59%, grade F, #211 of 521 statewide, top 41%, 1,374 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools at 42% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 205 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 588 units permitted in Cass County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cass County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.2% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $185,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.41%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $218,400
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17244 Montgall Dr	0.19mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,184 (-1%)	4mo	$179,000	$151	76
17217 Chestnut St	0.05mi	3/1.5	1,228 (+2%)	19mo	$174,900	$142	76
17220 Monte Verde Dr	0.31mi	3/1.0	1,220 (+2%)	12mo	$214,900	$176	72
17233 Monte Verde Dr	0.36mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,200 (0%)	15mo	$236,900	$197	65
17233 Chestnut Dr	0.13mi	3/1.0	1,266 (+6%)	23mo	$199,900	$158	65
17130 Cerrito Dr	0.32mi	3/1.0	1,104 (-8%)	9mo	$205,000	$186	64
17405 S Benton Dr	0.32mi	3/1.0	1,336 (+11%)	6mo	$189,900	$142	61
17405 Chula Vista Dr	0.35mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (0%)	17mo	$224,999	$187	60
17604 Montgall Dr	0.58mi	3/1.5	1,100 (-8%)	3mo	$179,900	$164	55
17229 Monte Verde Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,128 (-6%)	18mo	$229,000	$203	54
17201 Cerrito Dr	0.36mi	3/1.0	1,048 (-13%)	10mo	$239,000	$228	54
17401 S Prospect Ave	0.31mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,100 (-8%)	19mo	$199,900	$182	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.17% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-5,461
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.76×
• Total profit: $39,227
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64012

• Rents YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 205
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,872 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$112 /mo · $1,342/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$393
• Net cashflow: $320

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,467

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $425	-5% $372	+0% $320	+5% $268	+10% $215
Rent	-10% $172	-5% $246	+0% $320	+5% $394	+10% $468
Rate	-1.0pp $413	-0.5pp $367	base $320	+0.5pp $272	+1.0pp $223

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
107 N Cleveland Ave Belton, MO	3.0	2.0	1128	$1,860	$1.65	6d	1	0.80mi
611 W Sunrise Dr Belton, MO	3.0	2.5	1496	$1,990	$1.33	9d	1	1.00mi
401 Lacy Ln Belton, MO	4.0	2.0	1225	$1,750	$1.43	9d	1	1.28mi
403 Shawn Dr Belton, MO	4.0	2.0	1234	$1,495	$1.21	0d	1	1.33mi
210 Mill St Belton, MO	2.0	1.0	700	$1,050	$1.50	0d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-20
   listed $185,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,342 · $112/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,794 · $150/mo
• Expected delta: +$452/yr (+$38/mo · 33.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,469
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$1,342
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,797
• − Management: −$1,797
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable income: $861
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$207
• After-tax cash flow: $3,634/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Belton 124
• NCES district ID: 2904620
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $56,946
• Composite: 29.73/100
• National rank: #6446
• State rank: #216 of 324 in MO

Livability — Belton

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #52
• US rank: #3782

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Belton, MO
• County: Cass County · 65,358 people
• City population: 29,304
• Metro: Kansas City, MO-KS
• Population (ZIP): 29,304
• Household income: $71,814
• Rent vs Own: 34.9% rent · 65.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1081.0

Population outlook (Cass County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,292 people
• By 2030: 106,109 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 105,786 · +0.5%
• By 2050: 102,062 · -3.1%
• By 2075: 88,569 · -15.9%
• By 2100: 68,293 · -35.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cass

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.1) · D 33.3% · R 65.4% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: -19.6pp · 2024: -32.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.1 2020: R+31.6 2016: R+35.9 2012: R+28.4 2008: R+19.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -244.76%
• Current HPI: 214.6157
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.17%
• Metro: Kansas City, MO-KS
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Pending — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-20 Listed $185,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,342 · +10.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.