5873 NE Minnow Ln · Elgin, OK 73538

$395,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,178 sqft · Land public records · 171 Days on market

Built 2025 1.00 ac lot ↓ 2% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +4.1/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautifully designed new 4-Bedroom 2-Bath House with 3-Car Garage with 8-feet tall doors, full 1-acre lot with plenty of room for shop or pool, award-winning Elgin School District, brick veneer/stone accent exterior, Open floor plan, Gorgeous colors, Spacious bedrooms, Large primary bathroom with makeup counter and 6' whirlpool tub, Custom painted White maple wood cabinets with lots of special trim/built-ins/crown molding with White walls, Black hardware, Upgraded 3 cm quartz countertops, Stainless steel appliances including gas cookstove, dishwasher, refrigerator, vent hood and drawer-type microwave, 95% high-efficiency HVAC system, Ceramic tiled floors, backsplashes and shower walls with

Key facts

• Full 1-acre lot
• Large covered patio
• Ceramic tiled floors

Tags

• FULL 1-ACRE LOT
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• CERAMIC TILED FLOORS
• LARGE COVERED PATIO
• ELECTRIC GENERATOR HOOKUP
• PARTIALLY FENCED YARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 3 total parking spaces; 3 covered spaces; 3-car garage; Garage with door opener and side-facing garage; Driveway (open parking available)
• Security: Security system; Carbon monoxide detectors
• Utilities: Natural gas available; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; New construction
• Construction: Brick veneer exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built by Hardwood Homes; Home warranty included
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Covered porch; Wood fencing; Spa / hot tub

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator; Range hood
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Fireplace(s); Central air; Ceiling fans; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Walk-in closets; Pantry; Double-pane windows; Window coverings; Gas fireplace; Therapeutic whirlpool (accessibility feature)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Gas water heater

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $396k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $237k (40.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $207k (47.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $207k (47.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.0% vs local median 5.1% in Elgin — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#17 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Elgin (rural): math 29% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #38 of 270 in OK (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Elgin Es (math 36% / reading 33%, grade F, #168 of 845 statewide, top 24%, 945 students, 0% FRL); Elgin Ms (math 26% / reading 34%, grade F, #49 of 345 statewide, top 15%, 791 students, 0% FRL); Elgin Hs (math 27% / reading 47%, grade F, #42 of 447 statewide, top 10%, 771 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 29% district-wide (29 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 95 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 133 units permitted in Comanche County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $42k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $40k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Comanche County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$68k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 171 days — a 12% lower offer ($348k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $207,367 (47.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 171 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 48% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.52% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.88%
• DSCR: 0.47
• GRM: 15.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.31×
• Total profit: $145,731
• Equity at exit: $356,658

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.37×
• Total profit: $484,199
• Equity at exit: $769,147

Cash invested: $110,852 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 73538

• Home prices YoY: 22.9%
• Active inventory: 95
• Price-to-rent: 15.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,074 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,076
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$495 /mo · $5,938/yr
• Insurance: −$165
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$435
• Net cashflow: $-1,098

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,463

Max offer price $237,050

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $98,975
• Closing costs: $11,877
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1201 Kensington Ln Elgin, OK	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1414	$1,700	$1.20	23d	1	0.83mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $395,900 Active 171 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $395,900 Active 170 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $395,900 Active 169 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $395,900 Active 168 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $395,900 Active 167 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $395,900 Active 165 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $395,900 Active 164 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $395,900 Active 162 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $395,900 Active 161 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $395,900 Active 160 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $395,900 Active 159 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $395,900 Active 156 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $395,900 Active 154 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $395,900 Active 153 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $395,900 Active 152 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $395,900 Active 151 DOM
17. 2026-04-14
    price $395,900
18. 2026-04-06
    price $389,900
19. 2026-03-02
    price $395,000
20. 2026-01-08
    price $399,900
21. 2025-12-30
    listed $405,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,884
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,177
• − Property taxes: −$5,938
• − Insurance: −$1,980
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,991
• − Management: −$1,991
• − Depreciation: −$11,517
• Taxable loss: −$20,709
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,970
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,203/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elgin
• NCES district ID: 4010710
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $65,900
• Composite: 29.77/100
• National rank: #6432
• State rank: #38 of 270 in OK

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #17
• US rank: #5411

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Comanche County · 96,361 people
• City population: 7,128
• Metro: Lawton, OK
• Population (ZIP): 7,128
• Household income: $91,324
• Rent vs Own: 16.1% rent · 83.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 70.0

Population outlook (Comanche County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 124,518 people
• By 2030: 124,231 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 122,193 · -1.9%
• By 2050: 120,368 · -3.3%
• By 2075: 120,492 · -3.2%
• By 2100: 123,113 · -1.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Two or more races 15% Hispanic / Latino 13% Native American 4% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Romanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Comanche

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.3) · D 37.4% · R 60.7% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.8pp toward R · 2008: -17.5pp · 2024: -23.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.3 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+23.7 2012: R+17.0 2008: R+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 45.70%
• Current HPI: 245.4249
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lawton, OK
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

-2.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $395,900 LBRMLS
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $389,900 LBRMLS
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $395,000 LBRMLS
• 2026-01-08 Price Changed $399,900 LBRMLS
• 2025-12-30 Listed $405,000 LBRMLS

Property tax history

+0.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.