13 N Aspen Rd · Middletown, NY 10940

$349,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,484 sqft · Townhouse public records · 62 Days on market

Built 1974 2,178 sqft lot $235/sqft · 17% below area Est $418k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.9/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Rent growth +4.6/5.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to effortless living in the heart of Middletown! This turnkey, move-in ready 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home has been thoughtfully updated with modern finishes and designed for comfortable everyday living. From the moment you step inside, you’re greeted by a bright, inviting foyer and a fresh, stylish interior that feels like home. The beautifully updated kitchen features gleaming granite countertops, crisp cabinetry, and modern appliances. The formal dining room flows seamlessly into the spacious living room, creating an ideal layout for both relaxing and entertaining. A sliding glass door leads to a large rear deck and fully fenced backyard, offering the perfect private outdoor space for summer gatherings, morning coffee, or simply unwinding at the end of the day. The main level also includes a convenient laundry closet and a tastefully updated half bath. Upstairs, you’ll find three generously sized bedrooms with ample closet space, beautiful new carpet, and an updated full bathroom with a sleek, modern feel. With its stylish upgrades, low taxes, and low-maintenance lifestyle, this home is the perfect blend of function, comfort, and charm. Ideally located near I-84, Route 17/I-86, shopping, dining, medical facilities, and everything Middletown has to offer, this home combines everyday convenience with Hudson Valley appeal. Whether you’re a first-time buyer, downsizing, or searching for a smart investment, this turnkey property checks all the boxes. Homes like this don’t last long, schedule your private showing today!

Key facts

• 2,178 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1974

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $349k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-470 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $266k (23.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $243k (30.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $243k (30.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.3% in Middletown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#79 in NY, #1,219 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute C-, schools D+.
• Middletown City School District (suburban): math 41% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #411 of 590 in NY (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.2%/yr); 273 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($328k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $243,279 (30.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.78%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $418,226
• List price: $349,000
• Delta: -16.55%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
146 Deer Ct Dr	0.45mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,473 (-1%)	4mo	$285,000	$193	65
161 Deer Court Dr #10	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,508 (+2%)	15mo	$345,000	$229	63
199 Deer Ct Dr	0.47mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,473 (-1%)	17mo	$295,000	$200	54
78 Deer Ct Dr #78	0.40mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,291 (-13%)	2mo	$277,000	$215	51
71 Jordan Ln	0.40mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,348 (-9%)	8mo	$310,000	$230	50
32 Jordan Ln	0.36mi	3/2.5	1,345 (-9%)	18mo	$325,000	$242	48
118 Deer Ct Dr Bldg 5	0.44mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,291 (-13%)	4mo	$257,000	$199	47
78 Jordan Ln	0.39mi	3/2.5	1,345 (-9%)	18mo	$355,000	$264	47
103 Deer Court Dr	0.33mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,296 (-13%)	11mo	$300,000	$231	47
193 Deer Ct Dr	0.46mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,291 (-13%)	4mo	$275,460	$213	46
63 Deer Ct Dr	0.35mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,291 (-13%)	15mo	$280,000	$217	42
132 Deer Ct Dr	0.44mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,291 (-13%)	17mo	$319,000	$247	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-73,633
• Equity at exit: $52,037

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-44,081
• Equity at exit: $30,175

Cash invested: $97,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10940

• Home prices YoY: -18.7%
• Rents YoY: 8.2%
• Active inventory: 273
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,433 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,830
• Tax from tax record: −$417 /mo · $5,001/yr
• Insurance: −$145
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$511
• Net cashflow: $-470

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,028

Max offer price $265,898

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-273	-5% $-372	+0% $-470	+5% $-569	+10% $-668
Rent	-10% $-663	-5% $-567	+0% $-470	+5% $-374	+10% $-278
Rate	-1.0pp $-295	-0.5pp $-382	base $-470	+0.5pp $-561	+1.0pp $-653

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,250
• Closing costs: $10,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
38 Richmond Pl Unit 1B Middletown, NY	2.0	1.0	950	$2,400	$2.53	15d	1	0.58mi
39 Cedar Ct Middletown, NY	3.0	1.5	1540	$2,350	$1.53	44d	1	0.68mi
23 Wawayanda Ave Middletown, NY	3.0	2.0	1072	$2,150	$2.01	44d	1	0.96mi
5 Schindler Ct Middletown, NY	2.0	2.0	1278	$2,950	$2.31	15d	3	1.02mi
26 Mill St Unit 2 Middletown, NY	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,600	$2.00	44d	1	1.08mi
26 Mill St Middletown, NY	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,600	$2.00	24d	1	1.08mi
7 Mulberry St Middletown, NY	4.0	1.5	1696	$2,800	$1.65	45d	1	1.14mi
32 Palmer Ave Unit 5 Middletown, NY	2.0	1.0	1100	$2,000	$1.82	44d	1	1.15mi
260 Ruth Ct Middletown, NY	2.0	2.0	900	$2,025	$2.25	24d	1	1.19mi
128 W Main St Unit 2 Middletown, NY	3.0	2.0	880	$2,500	$2.84	44d	1	1.19mi
126 W Main St Middletown, NY	3.0	1.0	900	$2,200	$2.44	22d	1	1.20mi
139 Ruth Ct Middletown, NY	2.0	2.0	880	$2,000	$2.27	24d	1	1.20mi
268 Ruth Ct Middletown, NY	2.0	2.0	1125	$2,375	$2.11	44d	1	1.20mi
118 W Main St Unit 1 Middletown, NY	3.0	1.0	1158	$2,350	$2.03	22d	1	1.21mi
2 E Main St #5 Middletown, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,850	$1.54	15d	1	1.25mi
1 Ruth Ct Middletown, NY	2.0	1.0	984	$2,200	$2.24	24d	1	1.25mi
11 Knapp Ave Apt 2 Middletown, NY	2.0	1.0	950	$2,500	$2.63	44d	1	1.26mi
28 North St #1 Middletown, NY	2.0	2.0	1200	$2,000	$1.67	44d	1	1.28mi
30 Knapp Ave Middletown, NY	2.0	1.0	1532	$1,800	$1.17	44d	1	1.29mi
39 Crescent Pl Middletown, NY	3.0	1.0	1278	$2,500	$1.96	24d	1	1.31mi
90 Washington St Unit 92 Middletown, NY	2.0	1.0	1600	$2,500	$1.56	24d	1	1.35mi
31 Liberty St Middletown, NY	2.0	1.0	1090	$2,000	$1.83	15d	1	1.36mi
151 Tall Oaks Dr Middletown, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0	920	$1,607	$1.75	15d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $349,000 Active 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $349,000 Active 61 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $349,000 Active 60 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $349,000 Active 59 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $349,000 Active 57 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $349,000 Active 56 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $349,000 Active 54 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $349,000 Active 53 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $349,000 Active 52 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $349,000 Active 51 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $349,000 Active 48 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $349,000 Active 47 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $349,000 Active 46 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $349,000 Active 45 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $349,000 Active 44 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $349,000 Active 43 DOM
17. 2026-04-18
    listed $369,000 Active 1572-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1572 chars)

    Welcome to effortless living in the heart of Middletown! This turnkey, move-in ready 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home has been thoughtfully updated with modern finishes and designed for comfortable everyday living. From the moment you step inside, you’re greeted by a bright, inviting foyer and a fresh, stylish interior that feels like home. The beautifully updated kitchen features gleaming granite countertops, crisp cabinetry, and modern appliances. The formal dining room flows seamlessly into the spacious living room, creating an ideal layout for both relaxing and entertaining. A sliding glass door leads to a large rear deck and fully fenced backyard, offering the perfect private outdoor space for summer gatherings, morning coffee, or simply unwinding at the end of the day. The main level also includes a convenient laundry closet and a tastefully updated half bath. Upstairs, you’ll find three generously sized bedrooms with ample closet space, beautiful new carpet, and an updated full bathroom with a sleek, modern feel. With its stylish upgrades, low taxes, and low-maintenance lifestyle, this home is the perfect blend of function, comfort, and charm. Ideally located near I-84, Route 17/I-86, shopping, dining, medical facilities, and everything Middletown has to offer, this home combines everyday convenience with Hudson Valley appeal. Whether you’re a first-time buyer, downsizing, or searching for a smart investment, this turnkey property checks all the boxes. Homes like this don’t last long, schedule your private showing today!

18. 2026-04-16
    historical $369,000 1572-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1572 chars)

    Welcome to effortless living in the heart of Middletown! This turnkey, move-in ready 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home has been thoughtfully updated with modern finishes and designed for comfortable everyday living. From the moment you step inside, you’re greeted by a bright, inviting foyer and a fresh, stylish interior that feels like home. The beautifully updated kitchen features gleaming granite countertops, crisp cabinetry, and modern appliances. The formal dining room flows seamlessly into the spacious living room, creating an ideal layout for both relaxing and entertaining. A sliding glass door leads to a large rear deck and fully fenced backyard, offering the perfect private outdoor space for summer gatherings, morning coffee, or simply unwinding at the end of the day. The main level also includes a convenient laundry closet and a tastefully updated half bath. Upstairs, you’ll find three generously sized bedrooms with ample closet space, beautiful new carpet, and an updated full bathroom with a sleek, modern feel. With its stylish upgrades, low taxes, and low-maintenance lifestyle, this home is the perfect blend of function, comfort, and charm. Ideally located near I-84, Route 17/I-86, shopping, dining, medical facilities, and everything Middletown has to offer, this home combines everyday convenience with Hudson Valley appeal. Whether you’re a first-time buyer, downsizing, or searching for a smart investment, this turnkey property checks all the boxes. Homes like this don’t last long, schedule your private showing today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,001 · $417/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,449 · $454/mo
• Expected delta: +$449/yr (+$37/mo · 9.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 71% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,193
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,549
• − Property taxes: −$5,001
• − Insurance: −$1,745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,335
• − Management: −$2,335
• − Depreciation: −$10,153
• Taxable loss: −$11,925
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,862
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,783/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Middletown City School District
• NCES district ID: 3619320
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 19.00%
• Median HH income: $54,612
• Composite: 41.52/100
• National rank: #3453
• State rank: #411 of 590 in NY

Livability — Middletown

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #79
• US rank: #1219

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute C- Cost of living C Crime B- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Middletown, NY
• County: Orange County · 267,004 people
• City population: 68,033
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• Population (ZIP): 53,611
• Household income: $87,080
• Rent vs Own: 38.4% rent · 61.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1846.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 379,830 people
• By 2030: 378,955 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 375,444 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 369,311 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 354,233 · -6.7%
• By 2100: 318,150 · -16.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 39% Hispanic / Latino 32% Black 20% Two or more races 13% Asian 4% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 13% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.4) · D 45.8% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: 4.1pp · 2024: -8.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.4 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+6.5 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+4.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.68%
• Current HPI: 311.5969
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.23%
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Listed $369,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-16 Coming Soon $369,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,001 · -1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.