161 S Myrtle St · Fellsmere, FL 32948

$200,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,670 sqft · Manufactured public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1987

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.9/30.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• Appreciation +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your slice of peaceful Florida living in Fellsmere. Situated on nearly half an acre, this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath offers over 1,600 sqft of comfort and possibility. Enjoy a 2023 roof, S/S kitchen appliances, an extra refrigerator and a spacious Florida room perfect for relaxing or entertaining. With front and back porches, a storage shed, and fully furnished, it’s move-in ready. The expansive lot invites you to dream bigger garden, expand, or simply enjoy the open space.

Key facts

• Expansive lot
• Extra refrigerator
• Storage shed

Tags

• EXTRA REFRIGERATOR
• SPACIOUS FLORIDA ROOM
• FRONT AND BACK PORCHES
• STORAGE SHED
• FULLY FURNISHED
• EXPANSIVE LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $306 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 3.3% in Fellsmere — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#136 in FL, #2,043 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, employment F.
• Indian River (other): math 48% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #35 of 73 in FL (top 48%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Fellsmere Elementary School (math 44% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,366 of 2,144 statewide, top 64%, 594 students, 100% FRL); Sebastian River Middle School (math 46% / reading 44%, grade D, #310 of 571 statewide, top 56%, 862 students, 65% FRL); Sebastian River High School (math 29% / reading 45%, grade F, #340 of 667 statewide, top 52%, 1,843 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools average 72% FRL vs 53% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 58 active listings in the ZIP; 564 units permitted in Indian River County in 2024 (281 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (5.2% local appreciation)).
• Indian River County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (5.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $200,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.24%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.19% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.21×
• Total profit: $67,710
• Equity at exit: $115,601

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.34×
• Total profit: $186,863
• Equity at exit: $201,410

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32948

• Home prices YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 58
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,042 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$50 /mo · $598/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$429
• Net cashflow: $306

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,655

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $419	-5% $363	+0% $306	+5% $250	+10% $193
Rent	-10% $145	-5% $225	+0% $306	+5% $387	+10% $467
Rate	-1.0pp $407	-0.5pp $357	base $306	+0.5pp $254	+1.0pp $202

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-17
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-04-15
   listed $200,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $598 · $50/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,660 · $138/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,062/yr (+$88/mo · 177.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,507
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$598
• − Insurance: −$2,502
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,961
• − Management: −$1,961
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable income: $464
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$111
• After-tax cash flow: $3,563/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Indian River
• NCES district ID: 1200930
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,597
• Composite: 42.45/100
• National rank: #3218
• State rank: #35 of 73 in FL

Livability — Fellsmere

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #136
• US rank: #2043

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fellsmere, FL
• Population (ZIP): 6,802

Population outlook (Indian River County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 165,104 people
• By 2030: 172,869 · +4.7%
• By 2040: 185,640 · +12.4%
• By 2050: 194,465 · +17.8%
• By 2075: 211,115 · +27.9%
• By 2100: 211,781 · +28.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 64% White 29% Two or more races 22% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 58%
• Common ancestry: German 1% Lithuanian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada
• Languages at home: 41% English-only · Spanish 57% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Indian River

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 36.0% · R 63.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: -14.8pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+21.6 2016: R+24.5 2012: R+22.3 2008: R+14.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.19%
• Current HPI: 340.7468
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Pending — RAIRCMLS
• 2026-04-17 Contingent — RAIRCMLS
• 2026-04-15 Listed $200,000 RAIRCMLS

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $598 · +10.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.