9511 Canyon Pass Dr · Hamilton, OH 45011

$155,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 904 sqft · Condo public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1989 $240/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.9/30.0
• DSCR +9.3/10.0
• 1% rule +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move in condition 2 bedroom 1.5 bath condo in great location.. Everything newer. Brand new Refrigerator 6/21.Oven/range 5yrs, Sink Faucet '21, microwave 3 yrs, HVAC 3 yrs. Nothing to do but move in! Must see! Will go fast! NO FHA

Key facts

• In unit laundry room
• Pool
• Functional layout

Tags

• IN UNIT LAUNDRY ROOM
• EASY ACCESS TO HIGHWAYS
• POOL
• ONE LEVEL LIVING
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• MAJOR MECHANICAL UPDATE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Residential zoning; Less than 0.5 acre (condo lot ~0.0084 acres)
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with a monthly fee of $240; HOA includes exterior maintenance, snow removal, pool access, and professional management

Exterior

• Parking: One assigned parking space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service
• Home design: Townhouse (traditional style); One-level unit with lower-level entry; Unit entry on lower level; Three levels in building
• Construction: Brick construction; Shingle roof; Poured foundation; Built on a condo lot
• Exterior features: Patio; Wooded lot; Vinyl windows

Interior

• Kitchen: Galley kitchen with wood cabinets; Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Microwave; Oven/Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms (both on level 1) — Primary approx. 11 x 13, Second approx. 10 x 12
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on level 1; One partial bathroom on level 1
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning; Electric water heating
• Interior features: Common hallway entry; Walkout great room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in unit (laundry room approx. 7 x 5); Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $431 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 4.6% in Hamilton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#332 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, schools B; Watch: crime C-, amenities C-, employment D.
• Lakota Local (suburban): math 68% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #107 of 656 in OH (top 16%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 196 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,163 units permitted in Butler County in 2024 (356 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 7 sale attempts since 27y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $110k; 41% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $155,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.91%
• DSCR: 1.53
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $2,343
• Equity at exit: $23,111

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.86×
• Total profit: $37,497
• Equity at exit: $13,402

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45011

• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 196
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,131 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$135 /mo · $1,624/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$240
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$447
• Net cashflow: $431

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,586

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9050 W Chester Blvd West Chester, OH	3.0	1.0–2.0	977	$2,192	$2.24	4d	24	1.07mi
9365 Clocktower Sq West Chester Township, OH	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1172	$2,775	$2.37	1d	47	1.34mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $240 · $2,880/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $155,000 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $155,000 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $155,000 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $155,000 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 486-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   listed $155,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,624 · $135/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,021 · $168/mo
• Expected delta: +$397/yr (+$33/mo · 24.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,569
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$1,624
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,046
• − Management: −$2,046
• − HOA: −$2,880
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable income: $3,008
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$722
• After-tax cash flow: $4,445/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lakota Local
• NCES district ID: 3904611
• Math proficiency: 68% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $90,743
• Composite: 63.25/100
• National rank: #631
• State rank: #107 of 656 in OH

Livability — Hamilton

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #332
• US rank: #5467

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Butler County · 381,674 people
• City population: 140,900
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 75,864
• Household income: $91,873
• Rent vs Own: 25.4% rent · 74.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1795.0

Population outlook (Butler County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 387,706 people
• By 2030: 392,028 · +1.1%
• By 2040: 395,307 · +2.0%
• By 2050: 391,116 · +0.9%
• By 2075: 378,642 · -2.3%
• By 2100: 343,248 · -11.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 12% Black 11% Two or more races 9% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Butler

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+26.3) · D 36.4% · R 62.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.6pp · 2024: -26.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+26.3 2020: R+24.0 2016: R+28.3 2012: R+26.2 2008: R+22.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -188.67%
• Current HPI: 259.7868
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.95%
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+182.3% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $155,000 Cincy MLS
• 2021-07-26 Sold (MLS) $110,000 Cincy MLS
• 2021-06-30 Contingent — Cincy MLS
• 2021-06-28 Listed $99,900 Cincy MLS
• 2018-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $71,000 Public Records
• 2018-02-23 Sold (MLS) $71,000 Cincy MLS
• 2018-01-22 Contingent — Cincy MLS
• 2018-01-03 Price Changed $71,500 Cincy MLS
• 2017-12-18 Listed $75,000 Cincy MLS
• 2005-10-13 Sold (Public Records) $73,500 Public Records
• 2005-10-05 Sold (MLS) $73,500 Cincy MLS
• 2005-07-18 Listed $71,500 Cincy MLS
• 2005-05-04 Listing Removed — Cincy MLS
• 2004-08-16 Listed $71,500 Cincy MLS
• 2002-08-22 Sold (Public Records) $66,500 Public Records
• 2002-08-19 Sold (MLS) $66,500 Cincy MLS
• 2002-05-30 Listed $68,900 Cincy MLS
• 1999-05-05 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 1999-04-28 Sold (MLS) $50,000 Cincy MLS
• 1999-01-29 Listed $54,900 Cincy MLS

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,624 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.