938 Covered Wagon · Canyon Lake, TX 78070

$158,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 902 sqft · Manufactured · 230 Days on market

Built 2023 10,280 sqft lot $175/sqft · 10% below area Est $175k · 10% under $5/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.3/30.0
• ARV discount +11.9/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to this beautiful 2023 manufactured home on a generous 0.236-acre lot in Cypress Lake Gardens! With room to add a garage, carport, shop, or RV parking, the possibilities are endless. Spend time outdoors at the neighborhood park and playground, and enjoy the convenient location near US-281, shopping, and dining. A versatile property in a prime location-don't miss it!

Key facts

• 0.236-acre lot
• Convenient location
• Neighborhood park

Tags

• 0.236-ACRE LOT
• NEIGHBORHOOD PARK
• CONVENIENT LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $158k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $506 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $158k).
• Recommended offer: $139k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 2.3% in Canyon Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#534 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Comal ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #58 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 633 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 3,420 units permitted in Comal County in 2024 (1,164 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Comal County population projected at +70% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $44k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 230 days — a 12% lower offer ($139k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 17 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 68% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $139,040 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 230 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.72%
• DSCR: 1.61
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $175,000
• List price: $158,000
• Delta: -9.71%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2931 Western Skies Dr	0.06mi	2/2.0 (-1)	896 (-1%)	9mo	$199,900	$223	83

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $6,571
• Equity at exit: $23,558

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.06×
• Total profit: $47,005
• Equity at exit: $13,661

Cash invested: $44,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78070

• Home prices YoY: -20.8%
• Active inventory: 633
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,856 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$829
• Tax from tax record: −$61 /mo · $733/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$5
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$390
• Net cashflow: $506

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,216

Max offer price $158,000

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,500
• Closing costs: $4,740
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2381 Cypress Gardens Blvd Spring Branch, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$1,195	$1.49	43d	1	0.27mi
2341 Puter Creek Rd Spring Branch, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,700	$1.70	43d	1	1.32mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $5 · $60/yr

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $158,000 Active 230 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $158,000 Active 229 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $158,000 Active 228 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $158,000 Active 227 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $158,000 Active 225 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $158,000 Active 221 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $158,000 Active 220 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $158,000 Active 219 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $158,000 Active 216 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $158,000 Active 215 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $158,000 Active 214 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $158,000 Active 213 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $158,000 Active 212 DOM
14. 2025-10-31
    listed $158,000 New 381-char remark

    Show marketing remark (381 chars)

    Welcome home to this beautiful 2023 manufactured home on a generous 0.236-acre lot in Cypress Lake Gardens! With room to add a garage, carport, shop, or RV parking, the possibilities are endless. Spend time outdoors at the neighborhood park and playground, and enjoy the convenient location near US-281, shopping, and dining. A versatile property in a prime location-don't miss it!

15. 2025-10-20
    historical $1,300
16. 2025-10-17
    historical
17. 2025-09-29
    status Pending
18. 2025-09-26
    historical
19. 2025-08-08
    price $1,300
20. 2025-05-26
    price $1,450
21. 2025-04-22
    listed $1,650
22. 2025-04-22
    historical $1,650
23. 2025-04-20
    listed $1,650
24. 2025-04-19
    listed $158,000 New
25. 2025-04-19
    listed $158,000 Active
26. 2025-04-04
    historical
27. 2025-04-04
    historical
28. 2025-03-12
    status Active
29. 2025-03-12
    status Active
30. 2025-03-12
    status Back on Market
31. 2025-03-09
    status Pending
32. 2025-03-09
    status Pending
33. 2025-03-09
    status Pending
34. 2025-03-05
    historical Active Under Contract
35. 2025-03-05
    historical Active Under Contract
36. 2025-03-05
    historical Active Option
37. 2024-10-23
    price $158,900
38. 2024-10-23
    price $158,900
39. 2024-10-22
    listed Active
40. 2024-09-13
    listed $159,900 New
41. 2024-09-13
    listed $159,900 Active
42. 2024-09-09
    historical
43. 2024-08-17
    price $169,999
44. 2024-08-02
    price $174,799
45. 2024-08-01
    status Back on Market
46. 2024-07-31
    historical
47. 2024-07-31
    historical
48. 2024-07-12
    price $174,899
49. 2024-07-12
    price $174,899
50. 2024-06-10
    status Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $733 · $61/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,891 · $241/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,159/yr (+$180/mo · 294.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 68% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,275
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,850
• − Property taxes: −$733
• − Insurance: −$790
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,782
• − Management: −$1,782
• − HOA: −$60
• − Depreciation: −$4,596
• Taxable income: $3,682
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$884
• After-tax cash flow: $5,188/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Comal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814730
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $74,792
• Composite: 51.79/100
• National rank: #1671
• State rank: #58 of 826 in TX

Livability — Canyon Lake

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #534
• US rank: #10441

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Canyon Lake, TX
• County: Comal County · 206,262 people
• City population: 42,159
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,200
• Household income: $115,175
• Rent vs Own: 10.8% rent · 89.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 73.0

Population outlook (Comal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 175,637 people
• By 2030: 199,911 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 249,436 · +42.0%
• By 2050: 299,430 · +70.5%
• By 2075: 423,857 · +141.3%
• By 2100: 512,048 · +191.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 12% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Comal

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.9pp toward D · 2008: -47.4pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+42.7 2016: R+50.1 2012: R+54.1 2008: R+47.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -61.35%
• Current HPI: 233.2875
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+364.7% since first listed

47 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-31 Listed $158,000 LERA
• 2025-10-20 Rental Removed $1,300 CTXMLS
• 2025-10-17 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2025-09-29 Pending — CTXMLS
• 2025-09-26 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2025-08-08 Price Changed $1,300 CTXMLS
• 2025-05-26 Price Changed $1,450 CTXMLS
• 2025-04-22 Listed for Rent $1,650 CTXMLS
• 2025-04-22 Rental Removed $1,650 SABOR
• 2025-04-20 Listed for Rent $1,650 SABOR
• 2025-04-19 Listed $158,000 LERA
• 2025-04-19 Listed $158,000 CTXMLS
• 2025-04-04 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2025-04-04 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2025-03-12 Relisted — Unlock MLS
• 2025-03-12 Relisted — CTXMLS
• 2025-03-12 Relisted — LERA
• 2025-03-09 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2025-03-09 Pending — CTXMLS
• 2025-03-09 Pending — LERA
• 2025-03-05 Contingent — Unlock MLS
• 2025-03-05 Contingent — CTXMLS
• 2025-03-05 Contingent — LERA
• 2024-10-23 Price Changed $158,900 LERA
• 2024-10-23 Price Changed $158,900 CTXMLS
• 2024-10-22 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2024-09-13 Listed $159,900 LERA
• 2024-09-13 Listed $159,900 CTXMLS
• 2024-09-09 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2024-08-17 Price Changed $169,999 LERA
• 2024-08-02 Price Changed $174,799 LERA
• 2024-08-01 Relisted — LERA
• 2024-07-31 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2024-07-31 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2024-07-12 Price Changed $174,899 LERA
• 2024-07-12 Price Changed $174,899 CTXMLS
• 2024-06-10 Relisted — CTXMLS
• 2024-06-10 Relisted — LERA
• 2024-05-31 Contingent — CTXMLS
• 2024-05-31 Contingent — LERA
• 2024-03-27 Price Changed $174,999 LERA
• 2024-03-27 Price Changed $174,999 CTXMLS
• 2024-03-07 Listed $179,999 CTXMLS
• 2024-02-01 Listed $179,999 LERA
• 2022-06-03 Pending — CTXMLS
• 2022-06-01 Listed $34,000 CTXMLS
• 1986-05-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+15.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $733 · -13.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.