Is 475 Timbercrest Cir SE in Bolivia, NC a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it C with a 7.6% cap rate and $272/mo modeled cash flow at a $242,850 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 475 Timbercrest Cir SE?

The modeled cap rate is 7.6% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,570/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

C Composite 56.3

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

Cash flow +19.4/30.0
ARV discount +10.7/15.0
DSCR +6.1/10.0
1% rule +5.6/10.0
Schools +4.7/10.0
Condition / age +4.2/5.0
Livability +3.0/5.0
Rent growth +2.5/5.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$242,850

475 Timbercrest Cir SE · Bolivia, NC 28422

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,807 sqft · Townhouse · 165 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 2,614 sqft lot Garage $134/sqft · 7% below area Est $262k · 7% under $80/mo HOA · 3% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

MOVE-IN READY! Experience coastal modern living at Autumn Trail in this brand-new 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath end unit townhome, conveniently located 15-20 minutes from Oak Island and Holden Beach, with easy access to the historic waterfront town of Southport. Designed with versatility in mind, the open-concept floor plan features a desirable first-floor primary suite with high ceilings, a walk-in closet, and a private bath with quartz countertops and a 5-foot glass-enclosed shower. The kitchen is thoughtfully finished with granite countertops, soft-close cabinetry, crown and cap trim on the cabinets, a ceramic tile backsplash, and stainless steel appliances.

Key facts

Quartz countertops
Walk-in closet
Private bath

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $243k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $272 ($3k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $243k).
Recommended offer: $214k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 4.7% in Bolivia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

Location reads 59/100 on livability (#549 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
Brunswick County Schools (rural): math 45% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #82 of 178 in NC (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Virginia Williamson Elem (math 50% / reading 49%, grade D, #417 of 1,410 statewide, top 32%, 502 students, 99% FRL); Cedar Grove Middle (math 30% / reading 36%, grade F, #305 of 475 statewide, top 65%, 434 students, 99% FRL); South Brunswick High (math 62% / reading 57%, grade C+, #216 of 535 statewide, top 43%, 1,172 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 53% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: 867 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 42d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 6,112 units permitted in Brunswick County in 2024 (990 in 5+ unit buildings).
This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Brunswick County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 165 days — a 12% lower offer ($214k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $213,708 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

It's been on market 165 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 1.06% ✓
Cap rate: 7.64%
Cash-on-cash: 4.80%
DSCR: 1.21
GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $261,677
List price: $242,850
Delta: -7.19%
Verdict: FAIR
Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
451 Timbercrest Cir SE	0.04mi	4/2.5	1,807 (0%)	1mo	$235,850	$131	98
545 Timbercrest Cir SE	0.07mi	4/2.5	1,807 (0%)	2mo	$247,850	$137	95
554 Timbercrest Cir SE	0.06mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,567 (-13%)	11mo	$275,000	$175	61
522 Timbercrest Cir	0.08mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,567 (-13%)	15mo	$275,000	$175	57
520 Timbercrest Cir SE Unit 5b	0.08mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,567 (-13%)	17mo	$270,000	$172	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -8.8%
Equity multiple: 0.68×
Total profit: $-21,952
Equity at exit: $36,210

10-year hold

IRR: 0.7%
Equity multiple: 1.05×
Total profit: $3,533
Equity at exit: $20,997

Cash invested: $67,998 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 12 active · 3 under contract
Months of supply: 36.0 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $237,850 ($132/sqft)
Median days on market: 172 d
This list price: 67% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +10.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 28422

Home prices YoY: -23.8%
Active inventory: 867
Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,570 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,274
Tax est. 1.5%: −$304 /mo · $3,643/yr
Insurance: −$101
HOA: −$80
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$540
Net cashflow: $272

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,226

Max offer price $242,850

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $440	-5% $356	+0% $272	+5% $188	+10% $104
Rent	-10% $69	-5% $170	+0% $272	+5% $373	+10% $475
Rate	-1.0pp $394	-0.5pp $334	base $272	+0.5pp $209	+1.0pp $145

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $60,712
Closing costs: $7,286
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
601 Creekway Cir SE Bolivia, NC	3.0	2.5	2101	$2,250	$1.07	41d	1	0.18mi
514 Silky Oak Dr SE Bolivia, NC	3.0	2.0	1672	$2,400	$1.44	164d	1	0.89mi
510 Silky Oak Dr SE Bolivia, NC	3.0	3.0	2371	$2,350	$0.99	10d	1	0.90mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other: Subdivision: Autumn TrailLocated east of Highway 17 along NC-211Zoning: Co-Cld
HOA & community: Homeowners association with grounds maintenanceHOA fee $960 annually (approximately $80/month)

Exterior

Parking: Attached garage (faces front)Concrete drivewayTotal 1 parking space / 1 garage space
Utilities: Sewer connectedWater connected
Home design: TownhouseTwo levels (2 stories)Entry level: 1New construction
Construction: Vinyl siding and frame constructionSlab foundation
Exterior features: Covered patio/porchFront porchRear porchPrivacy and partial fencingShingle roofIrrigation systemHas view

Interior

Kitchen: Electric ovenDishwasherMicrowaveGarbage disposal
Flooring: CarpetLaminateVinyl
Bathrooms: Two full bathroomsOne half bathroomAccessible full bathroom
Heating & cooling: Heat pump heatingElectric heatingHeat pump cooling
Interior features: Master bedroom on main levelWalk-in closet(s)High ceilingsCeiling fan(s)Pantry
Laundry & utility: Laundry roomElectric water heater

HOA detail $80/mo · $960/yr

Likely covers: water

Listing history 50 events

2026-11-08

days on market $242,850 Active 165 DOM
2026-11-07

days on market $242,850 Active 164 DOM
2026-11-06

days on market $242,850 Active 163 DOM
2026-11-05

days on market $242,850 Active 162 DOM
2026-11-04

days on market $242,850 Active 161 DOM
2026-11-02

days on market $242,850 Active 159 DOM
2026-11-01

days on market $242,850 Active 158 DOM
2026-10-31

days on market $242,850 Active 157 DOM
2026-10-30

days on market $242,850 Active 156 DOM
2026-10-29

days on market $242,850 Active 155 DOM
2026-10-28

days on market $242,850 Active 154 DOM
2026-10-27

days on market $242,850 Active 153 DOM
2026-10-26

days on market $242,850 Active 152 DOM
2026-10-26

days on market $242,850 Active 151 DOM
2026-10-24

days on market $242,850 Active 150 DOM
2026-10-23

days on market $242,850 Active 149 DOM
2026-10-22

days on market $242,850 Active 148 DOM
2026-10-21

days on market $242,850 Active 147 DOM
2026-10-20

days on market $242,850 Active 146 DOM
2026-10-19

days on market $242,850 Active 145 DOM
2026-10-18

days on market $242,850 Active 144 DOM
2026-10-17

days on market $242,850 Active 143 DOM
2026-10-16

days on market $242,850 Active 142 DOM
2026-10-15

days on market $242,850 Active 141 DOM
2026-10-14

days on market $242,850 Active 140 DOM
2026-10-13

days on market $242,850 Active 139 DOM
2026-10-12

days on market $242,850 Active 138 DOM
2026-10-11

days on market $242,850 Active 137 DOM
2026-10-10

days on market $242,850 Active 136 DOM
2026-10-09

days on market $242,850 Active 135 DOM
2026-10-08

days on market $242,850 Active 134 DOM
2026-10-07

days on market $242,850 Active 133 DOM
2026-10-06

days on market $242,850 Active 132 DOM
2026-10-05

days on market $242,850 Active 131 DOM
2026-10-04

days on market $242,850 Active 130 DOM
2026-10-03

days on market $242,850 Active 129 DOM
2026-10-02

days on market $242,850 Active 128 DOM
2026-10-01

days on market $242,850 Active 127 DOM
2026-09-30

days on market $242,850 Active 126 DOM
2026-09-29

days on market $242,850 Active 125 DOM
2026-09-28

days on market $242,850 Active 124 DOM
2026-09-27

days on market $242,850 Active 123 DOM
2026-09-26

pricedays on market $242,850 Active 121 DOM
2026-09-24

days on market $267,850 Active 120 DOM
2026-09-23

days on market $267,850 Active 119 DOM
2026-09-22

days on market $267,850 Active 118 DOM
2026-09-21

days on market $267,850 Active 117 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $267,850 Active 116 DOM
2026-09-19

days on market $267,850 Active 115 DOM
2026-09-18

days on market $267,850 Active 114 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $30,837
− Mortgage interest: −$13,603
− Property taxes: −$3,643
− Insurance: −$1,214
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,467
− Management: −$2,467
− HOA: −$960
− Depreciation: −$7,065
Taxable loss: −$582

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$140
After-tax cash flow: $3,401/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 85/100 None rehab

This brand-new townhome is move-in ready with modern finishes and a good condition score. Potential buyers and renters will appreciate the open-concept floor plan and modern kitchen and bathrooms.

Value-add opportunities

Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve both resale and rental value. ↑
Both Add smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental appeal by adding modern conveniences. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 47/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Virginia Williamson Elem D NC #417/1,410 Nat'l #12,785/41,679 Middle Cedar Grove Middle F NC #305/475 Nat'l #8,059/14,009 High South Brunswick High C+ NC #216/535 Nat'l #3,588/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Brunswick County Schools
NCES district ID: 3700420
Math proficiency: 45% ▲ 4.00%
Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 4.00%
Median HH income: $47,494
Composite: 39.23/100
National rank: #4011
State rank: #82 of 178 in NC

D Composite livability gradescore 59/100

Livability — Bolivia

Score: 59/100
State rank: #549
US rank: #20206

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B- Employment F Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Brunswick County · 152,111 people
City population: 10,059
Metro: Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC
Population (ZIP): 10,059
Household income: $69,412
Rent vs Own: 13.7% rent · 86.3% own

Population outlook (Brunswick County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 152,111 people
By 2030: 165,705 · +8.9%
By 2040: 188,494 · +23.9%
By 2050: 206,228 · +35.6%
By 2075: 237,876 · +56.4%
By 2100: 251,451 · +65.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
Race & ethnicity: White 80% Black 9% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 3% Native American 1%
Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Brunswick

2024 margin: Strong R (+24.9) · D 37.2% · R 62.0%
2008→2024 swing: -6.9pp toward R · 2008: -17.9pp · 2024: -24.9pp
All cycles: 2024: R+24.9 2020: R+25.0 2016: R+28.7 2012: R+22.2 2008: R+17.9

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -44.19%
Current HPI: 141.1956
Rent YoY: —
Metro: Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Financial Services	2	$213B
#17 Bank of America Charlotte $192.4B #166 Truist Financial Charlotte $20.5B
Retail	2	$95B
#52 Lowe's Mooresville $83.7B #337 Advance Auto Parts Raleigh $11.2B
Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
#114 Honeywell International Charlotte $37.9B
Metals / Steel	1	$35B
#121 Nucor Charlotte $35.4B
Utilities	1	$30B
#133 Duke Energy Charlotte $29.9B
Industrial Machinery	1	$19B
#182 Trane Technologies Davidson $18.9B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

2026-05-27 Listed $267,850 Hive MLS

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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