475 Timbercrest Cir SE · Bolivia, NC 28422

$267,850

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,807 sqft · Townhouse · 73 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 2,614 sqft lot Garage $148/sqft · at area comps Est $268k · at est. $80/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.2/5.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* Under Construction * Photos are of similar model. Experience coastal modern living at Autumn Trail in this brand-new 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath end unit townhome, conveniently located 15-20 minutes from Oak Island and Holden Beach, with easy access to the historic waterfront town of Southport. Designed with versatility in mind, the open-concept floor plan features a desirable first-floor primary suite with high ceilings, a walk-in closet, and a private bath with quartz countertops and a 5-foot glass-enclosed shower. The kitchen is thoughtfully finished with granite countertops, soft-close cabinetry, crown and cap trim on the cabinets, a ceramic tile backsplash, and stainless steel appliances.

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Walk-in closet
• Private bath

Tags

• FIRST-FLOOR PRIMARY SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• PRIVATE BATH
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• GLASS-ENCLOSED SHOWER
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $268k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $9 ($105/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $246k (8.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $246k (8.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.6% in Bolivia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#549 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Brunswick County Schools (rural): math 45% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #82 of 178 in NC (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Virginia Williamson Elem (math 50% / reading 49%, grade D, #417 of 1,410 statewide, top 32%, 502 students, 99% FRL); Cedar Grove Middle (math 30% / reading 36%, grade F, #305 of 475 statewide, top 65%, 434 students, 99% FRL); South Brunswick High (math 62% / reading 57%, grade C+, #216 of 535 statewide, top 43%, 1,172 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 53% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 690 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 6,112 units permitted in Brunswick County in 2024 (990 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brunswick County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($252k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $245,542 (8.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.14%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $267,913
• List price: $267,850
• Delta: -0.02%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
432 Eden Dr SW	1.18mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,895 (+5%)	1mo	$349,900	$185	49
759 Hollybriar Loop Rd SE	0.44mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,198 (+22%)	1mo	$550,000	$250	48
888 Billys Dream Cir SW	1.41mi	4/2.5	1,981 (+10%)	2mo	$334,990	$169	48
2046 Cypress Hill Dr SE Lot 280	0.89mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,928 (+7%)	2mo	$362,999	$188	46
633 Ashbury Dr SE	0.59mi	4/3.0	2,196 (+22%)	0mo	$575,000	$262	46
522 Silky Oak Dr SE Lot 261	0.86mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,674 (-7%)	3mo	$345,990	$207	44
429 Autumn Chase SE	1.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,966 (+9%)	2mo	$385,000	$196	42
526 Silky Oak Dr SE Lot 260	0.85mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,618 (-10%)	1mo	$341,640	$211	40
518 Silky Oak Dr SE Lot 262	0.86mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,618 (-10%)	2mo	$331,990	$205	39
2084 Cypress Hill Dr SE Lot 273	0.88mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,518 (-16%)	0mo	$296,250	$195	35
473 Shiloh Ln SE	0.87mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,186 (+21%)	2mo	$497,500	$228	33
369 Broad Leaf Ln SE	1.26mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,086 (+15%)	1mo	$490,000	$235	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-42,761
• Equity at exit: $39,937

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-36,169
• Equity at exit: $23,159

Cash invested: $74,998 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 15 active
• Median asking: $242,850 ($134/sqft)
• Median days on market: 87 d
• This list price: 80% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +10.3% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 28422

• Home prices YoY: -23.8%
• Active inventory: 690
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,455 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,405
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$335 /mo · $4,018/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$80
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$516
• Net cashflow: $9

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,444

Max offer price $267,850

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $194	-5% $101	+0% $9	+5% $-84	+10% $-176
Rent	-10% $-185	-5% $-88	+0% $9	+5% $106	+10% $203
Rate	-1.0pp $144	-0.5pp $77	base $9	+0.5pp $-61	+1.0pp $-131

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,962
• Closing costs: $8,036
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
514 Silky Oak Dr SE Bolivia, NC	3.0	2.0	1672	$2,400	$1.44	72d	1	0.89mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: Autumn TrailLocated east of Highway 17 along NC-211Zoning: Co-Cld
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with grounds maintenanceHOA fee $960 annually (approximately $80/month)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (faces front)Concrete drivewayTotal 1 parking space / 1 garage space
• Utilities: Sewer connectedWater connected
• Home design: TownhouseTwo levels (2 stories)Entry level: 1New construction
• Construction: Vinyl siding and frame constructionSlab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porchFront porchRear porchPrivacy and partial fencingShingle roofIrrigation systemHas view

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric ovenDishwasherMicrowaveGarbage disposal
• Flooring: CarpetLaminateVinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathroomsOne half bathroomAccessible full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heatingElectric heatingHeat pump cooling
• Interior features: Master bedroom on main levelWalk-in closet(s)High ceilingsCeiling fan(s)Pantry
• Laundry & utility: Laundry roomElectric water heater

HOA detail $80/mo · $960/yr

• Likely covers: water

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $267,850 Active 73 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $267,850 Active 72 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $267,850 Active 71 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $267,850 Active 70 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $267,850 Active 69 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $267,850 Active 68 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $267,850 Active 65 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $267,850 Active 63 DOM
9. 2026-07-27
   days on market $267,850 Active 61 DOM
10. 2026-07-25
    days on market $267,850 Active 59 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $267,850 Active 58 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $267,850 Active 57 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $267,850 Active 56 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $267,850 Active 55 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $267,850 Active 52 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $267,850 Active 50 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $267,850 Active 49 DOM
18. 2026-07-14
    days on market $267,850 Active 48 DOM
19. 2026-07-13
    days on market $267,850 Active 47 DOM
20. 2026-07-12
    days on market $267,850 Active 46 DOM
21. 2026-07-11
    days on market $267,850 Active 45 DOM
22. 2026-07-10
    days on market $267,850 Active 44 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $267,850 Active 43 DOM
24. 2026-07-08
    days on market $267,850 Active 42 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $267,850 Active 41 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $267,850 Active 40 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $267,850 Active 39 DOM
28. 2026-07-04
    days on market $267,850 Active 38 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $267,850 Active 37 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $267,850 Active 36 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $267,850 Active 35 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $267,850 Active 34 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $267,850 Active 33 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $267,850 Active 32 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $267,850 Active 31 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $267,850 Active 30 DOM
37. 2026-06-25
    days on market $267,850 Active 28 DOM
38. 2026-06-23
    days on market $267,850 Active 26 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $267,850 Active 25 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $267,850 Active 22 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $267,850 Active 21 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $267,850 Active 20 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $267,850 Active 19 DOM
44. 2026-06-14
    days on market $267,850 Active 17 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $267,850 Active 16 DOM
46. 2026-06-10
    days on market $267,850 Active 14 DOM
47. 2026-06-09
    days on market $267,850 Active 13 DOM
48. 2026-06-08
    days on market $267,850 Active 12 DOM
49. 2026-06-07
    days on market $267,850 Active 11 DOM
50. 2026-06-05
    days on market $267,850 Active 8 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,465
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,004
• − Property taxes: −$4,018
• − Insurance: −$1,339
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,357
• − Management: −$2,357
• − HOA: −$960
• − Depreciation: −$7,792
• Taxable loss: −$4,362
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,047
• After-tax cash flow: $1,152/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 85/100 None rehab

This brand-new townhome is move-in ready with modern finishes and a good condition score. Potential buyers and renters will appreciate the open-concept floor plan and modern kitchen and bathrooms.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental appeal by adding modern conveniences. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 47/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Virginia Williamson Elem D NC #417/1,410 Nat'l #12,785/41,679 Middle Cedar Grove Middle F NC #305/475 Nat'l #8,059/14,009 High South Brunswick High C+ NC #216/535 Nat'l #3,588/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brunswick County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700420
• Math proficiency: 45% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,494
• Composite: 39.23/100
• National rank: #4011
• State rank: #82 of 178 in NC

D Composite livability gradescore 59/100

Livability — Bolivia

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #549
• US rank: #20206

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B- Employment F Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Brunswick County · 152,111 people
• City population: 10,059
• Metro: Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC
• Population (ZIP): 10,059
• Household income: $69,412
• Rent vs Own: 13.7% rent · 86.3% own

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Population outlook (Brunswick County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 152,111 people
• By 2030: 165,705 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 188,494 · +23.9%
• By 2050: 206,228 · +35.6%
• By 2075: 237,876 · +56.4%
• By 2100: 251,451 · +65.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Black 9% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 3% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

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Political lean MEDSL · Brunswick

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.9) · D 37.2% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.9pp toward R · 2008: -17.9pp · 2024: -24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.9 2020: R+25.0 2016: R+28.7 2012: R+22.2 2008: R+17.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.19%
• Current HPI: 141.1956
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: Autumn TrailLocated east of Highway 17 along NC-211Zoning: Co-Cld
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with grounds maintenanceHOA fee $960 annually (approximately $80/month)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (faces front)Concrete drivewayTotal 1 parking space / 1 garage space
• Utilities: Sewer connectedWater connected
• Home design: TownhouseTwo levels (2 stories)Entry level: 1New construction
• Construction: Vinyl siding and frame constructionSlab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porchFront porchRear porchPrivacy and partial fencingShingle roofIrrigation systemHas view

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric ovenDishwasherMicrowaveGarbage disposal
• Flooring: CarpetLaminateVinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathroomsOne half bathroomAccessible full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heatingElectric heatingHeat pump cooling
• Interior features: Master bedroom on main levelWalk-in closet(s)High ceilingsCeiling fan(s)Pantry
• Laundry & utility: Laundry roomElectric water heater

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $267,850 Hive MLS