45 Harbour Row Dr · Cape Royale, TX 77331

$189,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,380 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 32 Days on market

Built 1980 2,914 sqft lot Est $290k · 35% under $59/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.8/30.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Step inside this charming Cape Royale home featuring 3-4 bedrooms and 2 baths. Recently updated with fresh paint, new flooring, fixtures, and windows in the front. Embrace the resort lifestyle with amenities like a boat ramp, marina, clubhouse, pool, park, playground, tennis/pickleball courts, basketball court, and picnic area. Make this your new home sweet home today!

Key facts

• Cape royale home
• Clubhouse
• Pool

Tags

• CAPE ROYALE HOME
• BOAT RAMP
• MARINA
• CLUBHOUSE
• POOL
• PARK

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Association fee amount: $702 annually
• HOA & community: Part of Cape Royale association; Association amenities include clubhouse, marina, boat ramp, basketball and sport courts, pickleball, tennis courts, playground, picnic area, trash service, security, and community pool; Annual association fee

Exterior

• Security: Controlled access
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1980; Slab foundation; Composition roof; Concrete road access; Subdivision lot
• Construction: Construction materials: Unknown
• Exterior features: Balcony; Deck; Porch; Patio; Storage; Shed(s); Tennis court(s); Association pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Electric range
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 8
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Kitchen island; Ceiling fans; Kitchen/dining combo; Programmable thermostat; Insulated doors
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-120 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $168k (11.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $150k (20.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $150k (20.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 2.5% in Cape Royale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,203 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, housing A, cost of living B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Coldspring-Oakhurst CISD (rural): math 18% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #732 of 826 in TX (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Street El (449 students, 70% FRL); Lincoln J H (math 14% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,387 of 1,662 statewide, top 85%, 347 students, 58% FRL); Coldspring-Oakhurst H S (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,044 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 496 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools at 61% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 364 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 575 units permitted in San Jacinto County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Jacinto County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($183k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,000 (20.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.73%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $289,800
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
116 Harbour Ln	0.04mi	3/1.5	1,286 (-7%)	2mo	$155,000	$121	84
30 N Pine Harbour Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,379 (-0%)	9mo	$289,989	$210	72
81 Harbour Point Cir	0.29mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,464 (+6%)	3mo	$599,000	$409	69
330 S Pine Harbour Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,260 (-9%)	2mo	$254,900	$202	69
150 Piping Rock Pl	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,322 (-4%)	23mo	$288,000	$218	52
410 N Pine Harbour Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,266 (-8%)	18mo	$240,000	$190	49
40 Pecan Cv	0.71mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,431 (+4%)	9mo	$169,000	$118	48
531 N Forest Cove Loop	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,176 (-15%)	6mo	$410,000	$349	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-38,265
• Equity at exit: $28,181

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-43,096
• Equity at exit: $16,341

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77331

• Active inventory: 364
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax from tax record: −$176 /mo · $2,117/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$59
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $-120

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,652

Max offer price $167,751

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-13	-5% $-67	+0% $-120	+5% $-174	+10% $-227
Rent	-10% $-239	-5% $-180	+0% $-120	+5% $-61	+10% $-2
Rate	-1.0pp $-25	-0.5pp $-72	base $-120	+0.5pp $-169	+1.0pp $-219

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
30 Harbour Ln Coldspring, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,500	$1.17	0d	1	0.10mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $59 · $708/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $189,000 Active 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $189,000 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,000 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   price $189,000 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 28 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 27 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,000 Active 24 DOM
9. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 23 DOM
10. 2026-06-10
    days on market $199,000 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    days on market $199,000 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $199,000 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,000 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,000 Active 14 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,000 Active 13 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 12 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 11 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $199,000 Active 10 DOM
19. 2026-05-20
    listed $199,000 Active
20. 2025-11-24
    soldstatus
21. 2018-04-27
    soldstatus
22. 1997-02-04
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,117 · $176/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,459 · $288/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,342/yr (+$112/mo · 63.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$2,117
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,440
• − Management: −$1,440
• − HOA: −$708
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable loss: −$4,735
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,136
• After-tax cash flow: $-307/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Coldspring-Oakhurst CISD
• NCES district ID: 4814520
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $46,916
• Composite: 20.07/100
• National rank: #8653
• State rank: #732 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cape Royale

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1203
• US rank: #21032

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment D- Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cape Royale, TX
• Population (ZIP): 7,348

Population outlook (San Jacinto County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 29,069 people
• By 2030: 29,750 · +2.3%
• By 2040: 30,714 · +5.7%
• By 2050: 31,010 · +6.7%
• By 2075: 31,616 · +8.8%
• By 2100: 29,874 · +2.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Black 13% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Jacinto

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.3) · D 17.0% · R 82.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.0pp toward R · 2008: -38.3pp · 2024: -65.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.3 2020: R+61.9 2016: R+58.4 2012: R+48.9 2008: R+38.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -146.98%
• Current HPI: 199.0493
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $199,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-04-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1997-02-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,117 · -1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.