203 S Grain Ave · Crosbyton, TX 79322

$55,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,054 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1940 10,498 sqft lot ↓ 27% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.7/30.0
• Appreciation +9.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Crosbyton cottage that features 2 bedrooms 1 bath and a heated and cooled basement. This home does have central heat and air, metal siding for low maintenance, a metal roof, and is on a large set of lots. There is a storage building and a detached 2 car carport. Recent flooring throughout as well. Current month to month renters will be moving out July 1st.

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Central heat and air
• Metal siding

Tags

• HEATED AND COOLED BASEMENT
• CENTRAL HEAT AND AIR
• METAL SIDING
• METAL ROOF
• LARGE SET OF LOTS
• STORAGE BUILDING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached carport; On-street parking; Has carport
• Utilities: Paved public road access (city street)
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Metal siding; Metal roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built area approximately 1,054 above grade
• Exterior features: Private yard; Outdoor storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Free‑standing electric range
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Ceiling fans

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4 ($47/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $54k (0.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $54k (0.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,147 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Crosbyton CISD (rural): math 25% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #1,055 of 1,141 in TX (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($380 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (8.7% local appreciation)).
• Crosby County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (8.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price; built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $54,500 (0.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.30%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.72% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.66×
• Total profit: $25,498
• Equity at exit: $44,504

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.81×
• Total profit: $74,091
• Equity at exit: $91,068

Cash invested: $15,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79322

• Home prices YoY: 8.3%
• Active inventory: 16
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $545 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax from tax record: −$115 /mo · $1,384/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$114
• Net cashflow: $4

Break-even live

Break-even rent $540

Max offer price $55,000

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,750
• Closing costs: $1,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
645 S Crosby St Crosbyton, TX	2.0	1.0	881	$545	$0.62	44d	1	0.54mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $55,000 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $55,000 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   remarks 358-char remark
4. 2026-06-16
   listed $55,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,384 · $115/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,384 · $115/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $6,540
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,081
• − Property taxes: −$1,384
• − Insurance: −$275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$523
• − Management: −$523
• − Depreciation: −$1,600
• Taxable loss: −$846
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$203
• After-tax cash flow: $250/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crosbyton CISD
• NCES district ID: 4800001
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $37,076
• Composite: 25.82/100
• National rank: #12789
• State rank: #1055 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Crosbyton

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1147
• US rank: #20185

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Crosbyton, TX
• Population (ZIP): 1,945

Population outlook (Crosby County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,795 people
• By 2030: 5,626 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 5,198 · -10.3%
• By 2050: 4,696 · -19.0%
• By 2075: 3,250 · -43.9%
• By 2100: 2,123 · -63.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 63% White 34% Two or more races 16% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 59%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Serbian 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 60% English-only · Spanish 39% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Crosby

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.3) · D 24.0% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.3pp toward R · 2008: -28.1pp · 2024: -51.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.3 2020: R+44.5 2016: R+41.6 2012: R+27.6 2008: R+28.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.72%
• Current HPI: 114.2754
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-26.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $55,000 LARMLS
• 2025-06-05 Price Changed $75,000 LARMLS
• 2014-06-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2000-08-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,384 · +25.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.