4366 Sulla Dr · Black Jack, MO 63033

$196,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,354 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 83 Days on market

Built 1965 9,500 sqft lot $145/sqft · 14% below area Est $228k · 14% under $10/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.9/15.0
• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This move-in ready three-bedroom, two-bathroom home is perfectly situated in the desirable Seven Hills Plat 1 neighborhood. The interior features a functional layout highlighted by a kitchen equipped with durable granite countertops and sleek black appliances. The basement remains unfinished, offering a blank canvas and plenty of additional storage space to suit your needs. The location is a standout feature, offering incredible convenience with close proximity to local stores, grocery shops, and a variety of restaurants. You will also enjoy easy access to the highway for a quick commute without being right on top of the traffic. Schedule your private showing today!

Key facts

• Black appliances
• Unfinished basement
• Granite countertops

Tags

• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• BLACK APPLIANCES
• UNFINISHED BASEMENT
• ADDITIONAL STORAGE SPACE
• EASY ACCESS TO HIGHWAY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $196k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-13 ($-157/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $194k (1.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (15.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $165k (15.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#132 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Hazelwood (suburban): math 11% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #306 of 324 in MO (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Jury Elem. (math 5% / reading 19%, grade F, #1,016 of 1,115 statewide, top 92%, 420 students, 99% FRL); Central Middle (math 12% / reading 25%, grade F, #348 of 391 statewide, top 89%, 707 students, 68% FRL); Hazelwood Central High (math 12% / reading 33%, grade F, #455 of 521 statewide, top 88%, 1,628 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 53% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.5%/yr); 221 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 41% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 7.5% rent growth), your $55k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($184k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $64k; list at $196k implies a 206% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $164,911 (15.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.29%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $228,251
• List price: $196,000
• Delta: -14.13%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4394 Satiris Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,301 (-4%)	1mo	$235,000	$181	89
4428 Papal Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,318 (-3%)	6mo	$129,900	$99	85
4451 Rhine Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,421 (+5%)	0mo	$165,000	$116	84
4443 Remus Dr	0.15mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,354 (0%)	3mo	$224,900	$166	83
4333 Caracalla Dr	0.12mi	3/2.5	1,271 (-6%)	3mo	$225,000	$177	80
11962 Nero Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+6%)	1mo	$220,000	$153	77
11678 Galba Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,292 (-5%)	2mo	$129,900	$101	73
11565 Mehl Ave	0.19mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,270 (-6%)	4mo	$81,000	$64	70
4377 Varano Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,155 (-15%)	2mo	$150,000	$130	60
11636 Macrinus Dr	0.29mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,525 (+13%)	1mo	$229,900	$151	56
2325 Grassland Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,525 (+13%)	2mo	$239,000	$157	52
11129 Old Halls Ferry Rd	0.63mi	3/1.0	1,216 (-10%)	7mo	$75,000	$62	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 7.51% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.07×
• Total profit: $113,738
• Equity at exit: $176,572

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.7%
• Equity multiple: 7.46×
• Total profit: $354,612
• Equity at exit: $380,785

Cash invested: $54,880 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63033

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Rents YoY: 7.5%
• Active inventory: 221
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,649 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,028
• Tax from tax record: −$196 /mo · $2,356/yr
• Insurance: −$82
• HOA: −$10
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $-13

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,666

Max offer price $193,690

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $98	-5% $42	+0% $-13	+5% $-69	+10% $-124
Rent	-10% $-143	-5% $-78	+0% $-13	+5% $52	+10% $117
Rate	-1.0pp $86	-0.5pp $37	base $-13	+0.5pp $-64	+1.0pp $-116

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,000
• Closing costs: $5,880
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11635 Hazeloak Dr Black Jack, MO	3.0	2.0	1124	$1,728	$1.54	19d	1	0.52mi
2745 Rottingdean Dr St. Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	825	$975	$1.18	45d	1	0.55mi
4872 Bristol Rock Rd Black Jack, MO	4.0	2.0	1448	$2,061	$1.42	3d	1	0.61mi
4583 Whisper Lake Dr Black Jack, MO	1.0–5.0	1.0–2.5	1225	$1,180	$0.96	0d	18	0.91mi
2544 Netherton Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,945	$1.51	0d	1	0.94mi
2257 Luxmore Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	3.0	1073	$1,495	$1.39	25d	1	1.13mi
1670 Arundel Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	1012	$1,450	$1.43	25d	1	1.16mi
1536 Springlet Ct #31 Florissant, MO	3.0	2.5	1161	$1,450	$1.25	0d	1	1.18mi
1536 Springlet Ct #31 Florissant, MO	3.0	2.5	1161	$1,450	$1.25	9d	1	1.18mi
1502 Summer Run Dr #108 Florissant, MO	2.0	1.5	922	$1,200	$1.30	25d	1	1.23mi
2259 Ainsworth Dr Saint Louis, MO	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,776	$1.18	45d	1	1.28mi
2259 Ainsworth Dr Saint Louis, MO	4.0	2.0	1561	$2,100	$1.35	0d	1	1.28mi
3582 Pershall Rd Unit 3631 Ferguson, MO	2.0	2.0	1500	$1,295	$0.86	45d	1	1.34mi
10329 Chesley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,350	$1.33	25d	1	1.35mi
3585 Pershall Rd Unit Moor Ferguson, MO	3.0	2.0	1577	$1,500	$0.95	45d	1	1.39mi
3585 Pershall Rd Unit Savana Ferguson, MO	2.0	1.5	1518	$1,375	$0.91	45d	1	1.39mi
3585 Pershall Rd Ferguson, MO	2.0	2.0	1388	$1,400	$1.01	45d	1	1.39mi
62 Capitol Hill Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1239	$1,250	$1.01	45d	1	1.40mi
10304 Bon Oak Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1500	$1,250	$0.83	45d	1	1.41mi
1547 Babcock Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,480	$1.46	45d	1	1.41mi
1915 Green Valley Dr Saint Louis, MO	4.0	2.0	1740	$1,500	$0.86	5d	1	1.42mi
1095 Ozment Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	984	$1,461	$1.48	25d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $10 · $120/yr

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $196,000 Active 83 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $196,000 Active 80 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $196,000 Active 79 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $196,000 Active 78 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   price $196,000 Active 77 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $202,000 Active 77 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $202,000 Active 75 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $202,000 Active 74 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $202,000 Active 71 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $202,000 Active 70 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $202,000 Active 69 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $202,000 Active 66 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $202,000 Active 65 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $202,000 Active 64 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $202,000 Active 63 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $202,000 Active 62 DOM
17. 2026-05-15
    price $202,000 674-char remark

    Show marketing remark (674 chars)

    This move-in ready three-bedroom, two-bathroom home is perfectly situated in the desirable Seven Hills Plat 1 neighborhood. The interior features a functional layout highlighted by a kitchen equipped with durable granite countertops and sleek black appliances. The basement remains unfinished, offering a blank canvas and plenty of additional storage space to suit your needs. The location is a standout feature, offering incredible convenience with close proximity to local stores, grocery shops, and a variety of restaurants. You will also enjoy easy access to the highway for a quick commute without being right on top of the traffic. Schedule your private showing today!

18. 2026-03-30
    listed $208,000 Active 674-char remark

    Show marketing remark (674 chars)

    This move-in ready three-bedroom, two-bathroom home is perfectly situated in the desirable Seven Hills Plat 1 neighborhood. The interior features a functional layout highlighted by a kitchen equipped with durable granite countertops and sleek black appliances. The basement remains unfinished, offering a blank canvas and plenty of additional storage space to suit your needs. The location is a standout feature, offering incredible convenience with close proximity to local stores, grocery shops, and a variety of restaurants. You will also enjoy easy access to the highway for a quick commute without being right on top of the traffic. Schedule your private showing today!

19. 2024-01-27
    historical $1,505
20. 2024-01-27
    historical $1,505
21. 2024-01-25
    price $1,505
22. 2024-01-25
    price $1,505
23. 2024-01-04
    price $1,575
24. 2024-01-04
    price $1,575
25. 2023-12-21
    price $1,610
26. 2023-12-20
    price $1,610
27. 2023-12-14
    price $1,650
28. 2023-12-07
    price $1,650
29. 2023-11-30
    price $1,675
30. 2023-11-30
    price $1,675
31. 2023-11-28
    listed $1,475
32. 2023-11-23
    listed $1,475
33. 2016-06-29
    soldstatus $64,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,356 · $196/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,356 · $196/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,789
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,979
• − Property taxes: −$2,356
• − Insurance: −$980
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,583
• − Management: −$1,583
• − HOA: −$120
• − Depreciation: −$5,702
• Taxable loss: −$3,514
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$843
• After-tax cash flow: $686/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hazelwood
• NCES district ID: 2913830
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,621
• Composite: 16.77/100
• National rank: #9156
• State rank: #306 of 324 in MO

Livability — Black Jack

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #132
• US rank: #7706

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 69,104
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 43,056
• Household income: $66,776
• Rent vs Own: 33.4% rent · 66.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1429.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 71% White 23% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.78%
• Current HPI: 570.6
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.51%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+215.6% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $202,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-30 Listed $208,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-27 Rental Removed $1,505 RENTLY
• 2024-01-27 Rental Removed $1,505 RENT.
• 2024-01-25 Price Changed $1,505 RENTLY
• 2024-01-25 Price Changed $1,505 RENT.
• 2024-01-04 Price Changed $1,575 RENTLY
• 2024-01-04 Price Changed $1,575 RENT.
• 2023-12-21 Price Changed $1,610 RENTLY
• 2023-12-20 Price Changed $1,610 RENT.
• 2023-12-14 Price Changed $1,650 RENTLY
• 2023-12-07 Price Changed $1,650 RENT.
• 2023-11-30 Price Changed $1,675 RENTLY
• 2023-11-30 Price Changed $1,675 RENT.
• 2023-11-28 Listed for Rent $1,475 RENTLY
• 2023-11-23 Listed for Rent $1,475 RENT.
• 2016-06-29 Sold (Public Records) $64,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2022): $2,356 · +5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.