3101 Francisca Ave · McAllen, TX 78503

$130,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 880 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1987 Est $121k · 7% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.6/30.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• ARV discount +4.3/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.4/10.0

Listing remarks

Needs TLC! Wood home sitting on 1/4 of an acre can be subdivided for 2 lots close to airports and shopping malls close to Hidalgo bridge. All trees have been cleared out.

Key facts

• Close to airports
• 1/4 of an acre
• Built 1987

Tags

• 1/4 OF AN ACRE
• SUBDIVIDED FOR 2 LOTS
• CLOSE TO AIRPORTS
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING MALLS
• CLOSE TO HIDALGO BRIDGE
• ALL TREES CLEARED OUT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $173 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $128k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.7% in McAllen — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#119 in TX, #3,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Mcallen ISD (urban): math 34% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #440 of 826 in TX (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.2%/yr); 215 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $128,050 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.70%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $121,440
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3024 Judith Ave	0.18mi	3/1.0	867 (-2%)	4mo	$120,000	$138	86
3113 Daytona Ave	0.12mi	3/3.0	888 (+1%)	10mo	$110,000	$124	76
2416 Daytona Ave	0.50mi	3/1.0	950 (+8%)	8mo	$139,000	$146	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-14,027
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-13,368
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78503

• Home prices YoY: -4.2%
• Rents YoY: -4.2%
• Active inventory: 215
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,361 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$167 /mo · $2,001/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$286
• Net cashflow: $173

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,143

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2500 S Ware Rd Unit 34 McAllen, TX	2.0	1.0	730	$800	$1.10	43d	1	1.16mi
2313 N 43rd St Unit 1 McAllen, TX	2.0	2.0	950	$1,300	$1.37	43d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $130,000 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $130,000 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $130,000 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $130,000 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $130,000 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $130,000 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $130,000 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $130,000 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $130,000 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $130,000 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $130,000 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $130,000 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $130,000 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $130,000 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $130,000 Active 4 DOM
16. 2026-05-26
    listed $130,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,001 · $167/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,379 · $198/mo
• Expected delta: +$378/yr (+$31/mo · 18.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,336
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$2,001
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,307
• − Management: −$1,307
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable income: $7
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2
• After-tax cash flow: $2,072/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mcallen ISD
• NCES district ID: 4829670
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $40,805
• Composite: 33.16/100
• National rank: #5551
• State rank: #440 of 826 in TX

Livability — McAllen

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #119
• US rank: #3771

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: McAllen, TX
• County: Hidalgo County · 623,128 people
• City population: 144,650
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• Population (ZIP): 22,621
• Household income: $53,322
• Rent vs Own: 38.9% rent · 61.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 762.0

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 92% Two or more races 34% White 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 88%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 29% · Canada
• Languages at home: 13% English-only · Spanish 86%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -9.15%
• Current HPI: 208.4757
• Rent YoY: ▼ -4.21%
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $130,000 FSBO.com

Property tax history

+7.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,001 · +10.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.