204 W Murrill St · Baytown, TX 77520

$130,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,134 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 21 Days on market

Built 1935 5,000 sqft lot Est $167k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming home located in the desirable Martin Subdivision in downtown Baytown! This cozy 2-3 bedroom, 1 bathroom home features an updated kitchen, spacious living areas, and a garage for added convenience. Situated on a corner lot, the property offers extra outdoor space and great curb appeal. Conveniently located near freeways, shopping, and schools, making commuting and daily errands a breeze. Don’t miss this opportunity — call today to schedule your private showing!

Key facts

• Extra outdoor space
• Great curb appeal
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• SPACIOUS LIVING AREAS
• CORNER LOT
• EXTRA OUTDOOR SPACE
• GREAT CURB APPEAL
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Seller disclosure available
• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; 1 garage space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Faces south; Full ownership
• Construction: Built in 1935; Cement siding; Wood siding; Composition roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: Private yard; Corner lot; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Window unit heating; Window unit cooling
• Interior features: Tub shower; Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1 ($-7/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $130k (0.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $121k (6.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $121k (6.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.2% in Baytown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#412 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Goose Creek CISD (urban): math 37% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #473 of 826 in TX (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Horace Mann J H (math 34% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,015 of 1,662 statewide, top 62%, 811 students, 87% FRL); High Point School (12 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 61% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 271 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 58% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $121,400 (6.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.02%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $166,698
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
323 E Murrill St	0.36mi	2/1.0	1,208 (+6%)	0mo	$169,000	$140	72
122 E Murrill Ave	0.23mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,008 (-11%)	1mo	$109,000	$108	65
400 Live Oak St	0.45mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,116 (-2%)	7mo	$197,000	$177	61
15 High St	0.54mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,162 (+2%)	3mo	$140,000	$120	59
501 E Wright St	0.45mi	2/1.0	1,266 (+12%)	7mo	$100,000	$79	53
804 E James St	0.64mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,100 (-3%)	7mo	$185,000	$168	50
520 E Fayle St	0.56mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,020 (-10%)	4mo	$149,900	$147	49
709 E Gulf St	0.69mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (+6%)	0mo	$207,900	$173	49
605 E Murrill Ave	0.54mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,250 (+10%)	2mo	$209,000	$167	47
1805 N 5th St	0.74mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,044 (-8%)	1mo	$150,000	$144	47
504 Stimpson St	0.73mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,216 (+7%)	1mo	$179,990	$148	44
503 E Fayle St	0.53mi	3/1.0 (+1)	980 (-14%)	6mo	$139,900	$143	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-23,088
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-28,022
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77520

• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 271
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,214 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$224 /mo · $2,685/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$255
• Net cashflow: $-1

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,215

Max offer price $129,899

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
105 E Adoue St Baytown, TX	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,200	$1.15	43d	1	0.25mi
612 W Texas Ave Baytown, TX	1.0	1.0	652	$975	$1.49	1d	4	0.38mi
508 Forrest St Baytown, TX	2.0	1.0	980	$1,299	$1.33	5d	1	0.46mi
510 Williams Ave Baytown, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	699	$1,599	$2.29	1d	5	0.65mi
516 William Ave Baytown, TX	2.0	1.0	931	$1,250	$1.34	43d	1	0.66mi
1305 Memorial Dr Baytown, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	845	$1,193	$1.41	24d	3	0.79mi
607 Vista Ave Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1232	$1,475	$1.20	43d	1	0.86mi
1607 Garth Rd Baytown, TX	2.0	2.0	1017	$1,025	$1.01	43d	1	0.89mi
301 Tri City Beach Rd Baytown, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	792	$1,350	$1.70	43d	1	0.91mi
1601 Garth Rd Baytown, TX	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1190	$979	$0.82	2d	5	0.91mi
1502 Beaumont Rd Baytown, TX	2.0	1.0	1010	$1,000	$0.99	43d	1	0.99mi
1510 Beaumont Rd Baytown, TX	2.0	1.0	1010	$1,100	$1.09	43d	1	1.00mi
1512 Beaumont Rd Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1112	$1,200	$1.08	43d	1	1.00mi
1507 Barcelona Way Baytown, TX	2.0	2.0	1070	$1,075	$1.00	43d	1	1.01mi
1519 Barcelona Way Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1325	$1,250	$0.94	43d	1	1.03mi
1525 Barcelona Way Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1112	$1,250	$1.12	24d	1	1.04mi
1300 Madison St Baytown, TX	3.0	1.0	1316	$1,500	$1.14	43d	1	1.09mi
811 Barrymore Blvd Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,300	$1.08	5d	1	1.24mi
1804 Chilton Dr Baytown, TX	3.0	2.5	1255	$1,720	$1.37	24d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $130,000 Active 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $130,000 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $150,000 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $150,000 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $150,000 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $150,000 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $150,000 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $150,000 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $150,000 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 3 DOM
13. 2026-05-28
    listed $150,000 Active
14. 2019-07-02
    soldstatus
15. 2004-08-11
    soldstatus
16. 1988-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,685 · $224/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,685 · $224/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,568
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$2,685
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,165
• − Management: −$1,165
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable loss: −$2,161
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$519
• After-tax cash flow: $512/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Goose Creek CISD
• NCES district ID: 4821150
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,468
• Composite: 31.84/100
• National rank: #5877
• State rank: #473 of 826 in TX

Livability — Baytown

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #412
• US rank: #8494

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baytown, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 135,579
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 36,355
• Household income: $54,278
• Rent vs Own: 47.8% rent · 52.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1559.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 30% Two or more races 19% Black 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 48%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 43% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -143.36%
• Current HPI: 262.066
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $150,000 HARMLS
• 2019-07-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-08-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,685 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.