23820 Ironwood #61 · Moreno Valley, CA 92557

$193,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured public records · 149 Days on market

Built 1980 $134/sqft · 75% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your beautifully remodeled home in the gated 55+ community of Moreno Valley. Every corner of this two-bedroom, two-bath home has been thoughtfully updated for comfort and style. The kitchen features brand-new cabinets, quartz countertops, and stainless-steel appliances—ready for everyday cooking or entertaining. Fresh paint, new luxury vinyl plank flooring in the kitchen, laundry, and bathrooms, plus soft new carpet in the living areas and bedrooms, make the space feel fresh and inviting. Updates include new electrical and plumbing, brand-new dual-pane windows, a new roof on the carport, and a newer A/C system for efficiency and peace of mind. Step outside to enjoy a covered front patio where you can sit and relax, or unwind in your private backyard with newly poured concrete—perfect for easy maintenance. The community offers resort-style amenities including a pool, spa, clubhouse, gym, card room, and pool hall. Plus, you’re just a short walk from nearby shopping and dining. Come experience this move-in-ready home that combines modern upgrades with easy, relaxed living. Schedule your private showing today.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Quartz countertops
• Soft new carpet

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• REMODELED HOME
• BRAND NEW CABINETS
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• SOFT NEW CARPET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $193k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $719 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $193k).
• Recommended offer: $170k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.8% vs local median 3.9% in Moreno Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#838 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, employment B; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Moreno Valley Unified (suburban): math 23% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #1,050 of 1,400 in CA (top 75%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 88 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($95k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.0% rent growth), your $54k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 149 days — a 12% lower offer ($170k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $115k; list at $193k implies a 68% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $169,840 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 149 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.97%
• DSCR: 1.71
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $110,000
• List price: $193,000
• Delta: 75.45%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
23820 Ironwood #189	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	1mo	$79,900	$55	99
23820 Ironwood Ave #71	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	10mo	$72,000	$50	92
23820 Ironwood Ave #151	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	13mo	$100,000	$69	89
23820 Ironwood #222	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,536 (+7%)	0mo	$110,000	$72	88
23820 Ironwood #217	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,536 (+7%)	2mo	$95,000	$62	88
23820 Ironwood Ave #126	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	12mo	$160,000	$111	87
23820 Ironwood #173	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	3mo	$76,000	$57	86
23820 Ironwood Ave #82	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,536 (+7%)	2mo	$110,000	$72	84
23820 Ironwood Ave #102	0.06mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (0%)	12mo	$113,000	$78	82
23820 Ironwood #143	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,584 (+10%)	5mo	$90,000	$57	79
23820 Ironwood #153	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,647 (+14%)	2mo	$135,000	$82	70
23820 Ironwood Ave #4	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-13%)	13mo	$70,000	$56	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.22×
• Total profit: $11,976
• Equity at exit: $28,777

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.09×
• Total profit: $59,150
• Equity at exit: $16,687

Cash invested: $54,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92557

• Home prices YoY: -16.7%
• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 88
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,599 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,012
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$241 /mo · $2,895/yr
• Insurance: −$80
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$546
• Net cashflow: $719

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,688

Max offer price $193,000

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $852	-5% $786	+0% $719	+5% $652	+10% $586
Rent	-10% $514	-5% $616	+0% $719	+5% $822	+10% $924
Rate	-1.0pp $816	-0.5pp $768	base $719	+0.5pp $669	+1.0pp $618

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,250
• Closing costs: $5,790
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 31 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11883 Bayless St Moreno Valley, CA	3.0	2.5	1308	$2,850	$2.18	19d	1	0.23mi
23780 Hemlock Ave Moreno Valley, CA	2.0	2.0	914	$2,498	$2.73	44d	1	0.36mi
23400 Hemlock Ave Moreno Valley, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	830	$2,025	$2.44	44d	1	0.56mi
12081 Marigold Ave Moreno Valley, CA	3.0	1.0	1110	$2,350	$2.12	44d	1	0.62mi
12315 Graham St Unit 30 Moreno Valley, CA	2.0	2.0	938	$1,775	$1.89	44d	1	0.62mi
12159 Calle Sombra Moreno Valley, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	868	$2,134	$2.46	0d	22	0.72mi
23163 Ironwood Ave Moreno Valley, CA	2.0–3.0	2.0	900	$1,845	$2.05	44d	1	0.77mi
23214 Sonnet Dr Moreno Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	1375	$2,800	$2.04	6d	1	0.80mi
12080 Pigeon Pass Rd Moreno Valley, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	805	$2,110	$2.62	44d	1	0.84mi
23606 Parkland Ave Moreno Valley, CA	3.0	2.5	1474	$2,995	$2.03	6d	1	0.86mi
24519 Chippewa Trl Moreno Valley, CA	2.0	2.0	1040	$2,450	$2.36	17d	1	0.92mi
23890 Hazelwood Dr Moreno Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	1534	$3,100	$2.02	6d	1	0.98mi
22961 Chambray Dr Moreno Valley, CA	3.0	1.5	1139	$2,850	$2.50	19d	1	0.98mi
24701 Starcrest Dr Moreno Valley, CA	3.0	1.5	1012	$2,500	$2.47	44d	1	1.13mi
12196 Carnation Ln Unit A Moreno Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	1110	$2,650	$2.39	44d	1	1.15mi
12196 Carnation Ln Unit B Moreno Valley, CA	2.0	1.5	1037	$1,900	$1.83	44d	1	1.15mi
12636 Andretti St Moreno Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	1460	$3,500	$2.40	0d	1	1.16mi
23925 Eucalyptus Ave Moreno Valley, CA	2.0	1.0–1.5	650	$2,399	$3.69	3d	4	1.19mi
24460 Myers Ave Moreno Valley, CA	2.0	1.0	950	$2,195	$2.31	44d	1	1.19mi
24745 Webster Ave Unit C Moreno Valley, CA	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,650	$1.50	44d	1	1.20mi
24342 Eucalyptus Ave Moreno Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,750	$2.50	25d	1	1.24mi
24352 Eucalyptus Ave Moreno Valley, CA	3.0	1.5	1150	$2,650	$2.30	6d	1	1.26mi
24340 Eucalyptus Ave Moreno Valley, CA	3.0	1.5	1100	$2,550	$2.32	6d	1	1.27mi
12845 Frederick St Moreno Valley, CA	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1146	$2,031	$1.77	0d	7	1.41mi
12780 Pan Am Blvd Moreno Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,650	$2.21	21d	1	1.42mi
12780 Pan Am Blvd Moreno Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,750	$2.29	25d	1	1.42mi
12780 Pan Am Blvd Moreno Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,850	$2.38	44d	1	1.42mi
12780 Pan Am Blvd Moreno Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,650	$2.21	16d	1	1.42mi
13260 Heacock St Moreno Valley, CA	3.0	1.0–1.5	762	$1,950	$2.56	0d	3	1.48mi
10374 Lake Summit Dr Unit B Moreno Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	1056	$2,800	$2.65	3d	1	1.48mi
10374 Lake Summit Dr Moreno Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	1056	$2,800	$2.65	19d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-04
   days on market $193,000 Active 149 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $193,000 Active 148 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $193,000 Active 147 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $193,000 Active 146 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $193,000 Active 145 DOM
6. 2026-03-27
   price $193,000 1152-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1152 chars)

   Welcome to your beautifully remodeled home in the gated 55+ community of Moreno Valley. Every corner of this two-bedroom, two-bath home has been thoughtfully updated for comfort and style. The kitchen features brand-new cabinets, quartz countertops, and stainless-steel appliances—ready for everyday cooking or entertaining. Fresh paint, new luxury vinyl plank flooring in the kitchen, laundry, and bathrooms, plus soft new carpet in the living areas and bedrooms, make the space feel fresh and inviting. Updates include new electrical and plumbing, brand-new dual-pane windows, a new roof on the carport, and a newer A/C system for efficiency and peace of mind. Step outside to enjoy a covered front patio where you can sit and relax, or unwind in your private backyard with newly poured concrete—perfect for easy maintenance. The community offers resort-style amenities including a pool, spa, clubhouse, gym, card room, and pool hall. Plus, you’re just a short walk from nearby shopping and dining. Come experience this move-in-ready home that combines modern upgrades with easy, relaxed living. Schedule your private showing today.

7. 2026-01-06
   listed $195,000 Active 1152-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1152 chars)

   Welcome to your beautifully remodeled home in the gated 55+ community of Moreno Valley. Every corner of this two-bedroom, two-bath home has been thoughtfully updated for comfort and style. The kitchen features brand-new cabinets, quartz countertops, and stainless-steel appliances—ready for everyday cooking or entertaining. Fresh paint, new luxury vinyl plank flooring in the kitchen, laundry, and bathrooms, plus soft new carpet in the living areas and bedrooms, make the space feel fresh and inviting. Updates include new electrical and plumbing, brand-new dual-pane windows, a new roof on the carport, and a newer A/C system for efficiency and peace of mind. Step outside to enjoy a covered front patio where you can sit and relax, or unwind in your private backyard with newly poured concrete—perfect for easy maintenance. The community offers resort-style amenities including a pool, spa, clubhouse, gym, card room, and pool hall. Plus, you’re just a short walk from nearby shopping and dining. Come experience this move-in-ready home that combines modern upgrades with easy, relaxed living. Schedule your private showing today.

8. 2024-03-15
   soldstatus $115,000 Closed Sale 229-char remark

   Show marketing remark (229 chars)

   Get Ready for Spring Right Here!!! Home offers a spacious two bedroom and 2 bath 1,440 sq ft living area in the popular IL Sorrento MHP 55+ gated community. Close to freeway and short walking distance to nearest shopping center.

9. 2024-02-29
   status Pending Sale 229-char remark

   Show marketing remark (229 chars)

   Get Ready for Spring Right Here!!! Home offers a spacious two bedroom and 2 bath 1,440 sq ft living area in the popular IL Sorrento MHP 55+ gated community. Close to freeway and short walking distance to nearest shopping center.

10. 2024-02-07
    listed $118,000 Active 229-char remark

    Show marketing remark (229 chars)

    Get Ready for Spring Right Here!!! Home offers a spacious two bedroom and 2 bath 1,440 sq ft living area in the popular IL Sorrento MHP 55+ gated community. Close to freeway and short walking distance to nearest shopping center.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 21 unhealthy d/yr today · 25 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,183
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,811
• − Property taxes: −$2,895
• − Insurance: −$965
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,495
• − Management: −$2,495
• − Depreciation: −$5,615
• Taxable income: $5,908
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,418
• After-tax cash flow: $7,211/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Moreno Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0625800
• Math proficiency: 23% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $55,495
• Composite: 28.36/100
• National rank: #12131
• State rank: #1050 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Moreno Valley

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #838
• US rank: #23203

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Moreno Valley, CA
• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• City population: 212,104
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 54,061
• Household income: $94,804
• Rent vs Own: 34.9% rent · 65.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1627.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 19% Black 17% Two or more races 15% Asian 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 46%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 57% English-only · Spanish 38% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.93%
• Current HPI: 388.882
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.00%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+63.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $193,000 CRMLS
• 2026-01-06 Listed $195,000 CRMLS
• 2024-03-15 Sold (MLS) $115,000 CRMLS
• 2024-02-29 Pending — CRMLS
• 2024-02-07 Listed $118,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

-2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $299 · +8.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.