Plan 8 Grayson Plan · Elk Grove, CA 95757

$779,999

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,129 sqft · SingleFamily · 135 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +1.7/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The two-story Grayson floor plan is an open-concept and energetic home inspired by the best moments in life. Begin your journey at the foyer that flows effortlessly past a flex room, formal dining space or optional study, and into the great room. The chef-inspired kitchen and dining space are conveniently paired to ensure the utmost accessibility. For your convenience, add an optional bedroom 6 suite ILO of the 3-car tandem garage. This lovely home features 4-6 bedrooms and 3-4 baths. As you venture upstairs, you are greeted by the loft space that can be transformed into the 5th bedroom. Work from home in style or create a game room! The primary suite is a stunning private oasis with dual vanities and a walk-in closet. The 3-car tandem garage is the perfect complement to this thoughtful floor plan.

Key facts

• 3 garage spots
• Listed 135 days

🏗️ New construction. The $779,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $914,289.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $780k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-42k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $411k (47.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $360k (53.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $360k (53.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 1.7% vs local median 2.8% in Elk Grove — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#212 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: commute F, cost of living F.
• Elk Grove Unified (suburban): math 40% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #165 of 517 in CA (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 295 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($138k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $98k of equity ($6k loan paydown + $91k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$157k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 135 days — a 12% lower offer ($686k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $359,912 (53.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 135 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 54% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.39% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -16.29%
• DSCR: 0.28
• GRM: 21.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $914,289
• List price: $779,999
• Delta: -14.69%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8435 Kyler Rd	0.02mi	5/4.0 (+1)	3,031 (-3%)	2mo	$940,000	$310	83
10293 Ayla Way	0.34mi	4/3.0	3,129 (0%)	4mo	$879,999	$281	81
8397 Kyler Rd	0.14mi	5/4.0 (+1)	3,031 (-3%)	6mo	$859,999	$284	74
8473 Kissa Circle Cir	0.43mi	5/3.0 (+1)	3,061 (-2%)	3mo	$775,000	$253	69
8384 Kyler Rd	0.17mi	4/3.5	2,782 (-11%)	5mo	$824,999	$297	68
10289 Ayla Way	0.34mi	4/3.5	3,439 (+10%)	4mo	$919,999	$268	63
10084 Cape Verde Dr	0.51mi	3/2.5 (-1)	3,058 (-2%)	4mo	$744,000	$243	62
10309 Ayla Way	0.36mi	4/3.5	3,510 (+12%)	1mo	$959,999	$274	60
10167 Ramy Cir	0.34mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,713 (-13%)	1mo	$716,000	$264	56
10288 Garmont Way	0.36mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,713 (-13%)	1mo	$706,000	$260	55
10312 Garmont Way	0.41mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,713 (-13%)	0mo	$720,000	$265	53
10291 Garmont Way	0.40mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,713 (-13%)	1mo	$715,000	$264	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 4.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.10×
• Total profit: $282,329
• Equity at exit: $823,664

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.98×
• Total profit: $1,017,808
• Equity at exit: $1,776,263

Cash invested: $256,001 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95757

• Home prices YoY: 13.5%
• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 295
• Price-to-rent: 18.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,599 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,795
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$1,143 /mo · $13,714/yr
• Insurance: −$381
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$756
• Net cashflow: $-3,475

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,998

Max offer price $411,431

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-2,843	-5% $-3,159	+0% $-3,475	+5% $-3,791	+10% $-4,107
Rent	-10% $-3,759	-5% $-3,617	+0% $-3,475	+5% $-3,333	+10% $-3,191
Rate	-1.0pp $-3,015	-0.5pp $-3,243	base $-3,475	+0.5pp $-3,712	+1.0pp $-3,953

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $228,572
• Closing costs: $27,429
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8358 Akino Ct Elk Grove, CA	4.0	3.5	2321	$3,200	$1.38	44d	1	0.24mi
10114 Elise Way Elk Grove, CA	4.0	3.0	2214	$2,995	$1.35	8d	1	0.50mi
10333 Tempier Way Elk Grove, CA	3.0	3.0	2795	$3,350	$1.20	44d	1	0.56mi
10333 Tempier Way Elk Grove, CA	3.0	2.5	2795	$3,195	$1.14	18d	1	0.56mi
8471 Anker Way Elk Grove, CA	4.0	2.5	2107	$3,200	$1.52	24d	1	0.63mi
10446 Tamburlane Dr Elk Grove, CA	4.0	3.5	2693	$3,495	$1.30	44d	1	0.65mi
8420 Mondale Way Elk Grove, CA	4.0	3.0	2450	$3,950	$1.61	44d	1	0.80mi
8151 Lavigne Cir Elk Grove, CA	4.0	3.0	2928	$3,445	$1.18	44d	1	0.87mi
8883 Solo Way Elk Grove, CA	5.0	3.0	2140	$3,300	$1.54	2d	1	0.88mi
10123 Blue Whale Way Elk Grove, CA	4.0	3.0	2445	$4,200	$1.72	17d	1	0.99mi
8069 Gwinn Cir Elk Grove, CA	5.0	4.0	3002	$4,300	$1.43	44d	1	1.07mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $779,999 Active 135 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $779,999 Active 134 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $779,999 Active 133 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $779,999 Active 132 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $779,999 Active 130 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $779,999 Active 129 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $779,999 Active 126 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $779,999 Active 125 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $779,999 Active 124 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $779,999 Active 121 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $779,999 Active 120 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $779,999 Active 119 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $779,999 Active 118 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $779,999 Active 117 DOM
15. 2026-02-03
    listed $779,999 Active 809-char remark

    Show marketing remark (809 chars)

    The two-story Grayson floor plan is an open-concept and energetic home inspired by the best moments in life. Begin your journey at the foyer that flows effortlessly past a flex room, formal dining space or optional study, and into the great room. The chef-inspired kitchen and dining space are conveniently paired to ensure the utmost accessibility. For your convenience, add an optional bedroom 6 suite ILO of the 3-car tandem garage. This lovely home features 4-6 bedrooms and 3-4 baths. As you venture upstairs, you are greeted by the loft space that can be transformed into the 5th bedroom. Work from home in style or create a game room! The primary suite is a stunning private oasis with dual vanities and a walk-in closet. The 3-car tandem garage is the perfect complement to this thoughtful floor plan.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 25 unhealthy d/yr today · 27 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $43,189
• − Mortgage interest: −$51,214
• − Property taxes: −$13,714
• − Insurance: −$4,571
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,455
• − Management: −$3,455
• − Depreciation: −$26,598
• Taxable loss: −$59,819
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$14,356
• After-tax cash flow: $-27,345/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elk Grove Unified
• NCES district ID: 0612330
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $67,860
• Composite: 40.72/100
• National rank: #3658
• State rank: #165 of 517 in CA

Livability — Elk Grove

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #212
• US rank: #6681

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elk Grove, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 190,119
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 56,764
• Household income: $138,198
• Rent vs Own: 26.5% rent · 73.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1121.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 40% White 21% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 14% Black 11% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Russian 1% Italian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 28% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 7% Chinese 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 39.15%
• Current HPI: 328.5885
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-03 Listed $779,999 Zillow