555 W Warner Rd · Chandler, AZ 85225

$88,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,925 sqft · Land public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1996

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

3 bed 2 bath manufactured home Leased land- lot rent $760.00 month All ages community - Kon tiki Chandler AZ Split floor plan master bedroom is in the other six of the home with walk in closet, en suite bathroom laundry in hall , new flooring throughout fixed for move in ready home.

Key facts

• Built 1996
• Listed 23 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $89k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($18k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $89k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 26.1% vs local median 3.3% in Chandler — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#9 in AZ, #2,508 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety D, cost of living D-.
• Chandler Unified District #80 (4242) (suburban): math 49% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #31 of 249 in AZ (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 182 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $615 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,566 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.97% ✓
• Cap rate: 26.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 70.84%
• DSCR: 4.15
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 67.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.87×
• Total profit: $71,496
• Equity at exit: $13,255

10-year hold

• IRR: 70.3%
• Equity multiple: 7.15×
• Total profit: $153,060
• Equity at exit: $7,686

Cash invested: $24,892 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85225

• Home prices YoY: -28.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 182
• Price-to-rent: 2.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,638 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$466
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$111 /mo · $1,334/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$554
• Net cashflow: $1,469

Break-even live

Break-even rent $778

Max offer price $88,900

Occupancy floor 39%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,225
• Closing costs: $2,667
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
650 W Kent Pl Chandler, AZ	3.0	2.5	1933	$2,995	$1.55	4d	1	0.31mi
837 W Baylor Ln Chandler, AZ	4.0	3.0	2222	$2,695	$1.21	43d	1	0.63mi
1168 N Burbank Ct Chandler, AZ	4.0	4.0	2222	$2,900	$1.31	4d	1	0.68mi
532 W Dublin St Chandler, AZ	3.0	2.0	2302	$2,050	$0.89	12d	1	0.89mi
1551 W Ironwood Dr Chandler, AZ	4.0	2.5	2186	$3,000	$1.37	1d	1	1.16mi
1732 W Gary Dr Chandler, AZ	3.0	3.0	2648	$3,100	$1.17	43d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $88,900 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $88,900 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $88,900 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $88,900 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $88,900 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $88,900 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $88,900 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $88,900 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $88,900 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $88,900 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $88,900 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $88,900 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $88,900 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $88,900 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-05-26
    listed $88,900 Active
16. 1994-05-27
    soldstatus $3,250,000
17. 1983-04-01
    soldstatus $1,316,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,653
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,980
• − Property taxes: −$1,334
• − Insurance: −$444
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,532
• − Management: −$2,532
• − Depreciation: −$2,586
• Taxable income: $17,245
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,139
• After-tax cash flow: $13,495/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chandler Unified District #80 (4242)
• NCES district ID: 0401870
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $74,048
• Composite: 47.54/100
• National rank: #2268
• State rank: #31 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Chandler

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #9
• US rank: #2508

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute B Cost of living D- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Chandler, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 299,016
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 72,297
• Household income: $88,676
• Rent vs Own: 38.3% rent · 61.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 2327.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 16% Black 7% Asian 6% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 21% Vietnamese 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -128.25%
• Current HPI: 328.8354
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.66%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-93.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $88,900 FSBO.com
• 1994-05-27 Sold (Public Records) $3,250,000 Public Records
• 1983-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $1,316,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $30,177 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.