611 Rock River Ave · Three Rivers, MI 49093

$136,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1940 1.90 ac lot Est $177k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 1.9 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1940

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $136k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $94 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $124k (8.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $124k (8.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 5.2% in Three Rivers — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#306 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, crime D, amenities F.
• Three Rivers Community Schools (town): math 37% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #200 of 540 in MI (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 178 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 125 units permitted in St. Joseph County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $940 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Joseph County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 7 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $136k implies a 446% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $124,500 (8.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.95%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $177,216
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
508 Maple St	0.15mi	3/1.5	1,366 (+10%)	1mo	$183,000	$134	74
815 N Main St	0.34mi	3/1.5	1,328 (+6%)	5mo	$240,000	$181	67
519 N Main St	0.29mi	3/1.0	1,376 (+10%)	4mo	$195,000	$142	66
15731 Hoffman Rd	0.50mi	3/1.0	1,222 (-2%)	15mo	$179,000	$146	61
611 East St	0.36mi	3/1.0	1,373 (+10%)	15mo	$170,000	$124	54
619 Maple St	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,370 (+10%)	22mo	$163,300	$119	54
903 Maple St	0.26mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,400 (+12%)	12mo	$180,000	$129	50
116 N Douglas Ave	0.67mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,080 (-14%)	1mo	$176,000	$163	40
—	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-4%)	22mo	$867,500	$723	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-16,086
• Equity at exit: $20,278

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-6,376
• Equity at exit: $11,759

Cash invested: $38,080 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49093

• Active inventory: 178
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,245 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$713
• Tax from tax record: −$120 /mo · $1,441/yr
• Insurance: −$57
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$261
• Net cashflow: $94

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,126

Max offer price $136,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,000
• Closing costs: $4,080
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
320 Thomas St Three Rivers, MI	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	925	$1,245	$1.35	13d	4	1.09mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2024-12-17
   status Pending
2. 2024-05-09
   status Pending
3. 2024-05-09
   historical
4. 2024-05-09
   listed $136,000
5. 2024-05-09
   listed $136,000 Active
6. 2024-05-09
   listed $136,000
7. 2024-05-09
   historical
8. 2009-03-12
   soldstatus $24,900
9. 2009-03-12
   soldstatus $24,900
10. 2008-09-18
    listed $25,900
11. 2008-09-18
    listed $25,900
12. 2005-07-06
    soldstatus $78,000
13. 2005-07-06
    soldstatus $78,000
14. 2004-09-23
    listed $77,700
15. 2004-09-23
    listed $77,700

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,441 · $120/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,767 · $147/mo
• Expected delta: +$327/yr (+$27/mo · 22.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,940
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,618
• − Property taxes: −$1,441
• − Insurance: −$680
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,195
• − Management: −$1,195
• − Depreciation: −$3,956
• Taxable loss: −$1,145
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$275
• After-tax cash flow: $1,399/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Three Rivers Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2633840
• Math proficiency: 37% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,576
• Composite: 34.97/100
• National rank: #5058
• State rank: #200 of 540 in MI

Livability — Three Rivers

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #306
• US rank: #7604

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Three Rivers, MI
• Population (ZIP): 18,439

Population outlook (St. Joseph County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 58,726 people
• By 2030: 57,030 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 53,266 · -9.3%
• By 2050: 49,343 · -16.0%
• By 2075: 40,441 · -31.1%
• By 2100: 31,981 · -45.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 11% Iranian 5% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Joseph

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.0) · D 32.2% · R 66.2% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.8pp toward R · 2008: -2.2pp · 2024: -34.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.0 2020: R+31.7 2016: R+31.0 2012: R+12.3 2008: R+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -159.07%
• Current HPI: 226.5079
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+75.0% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2024-12-17 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2024-05-09 Pending — SW Michigan MLS
• 2024-05-09 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-05-09 Listed $136,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-05-09 Listed $136,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2024-05-09 Listed $136,000 REALCOMP
• 2024-05-09 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2009-03-12 Sold (MLS) $24,900 REALCOMP
• 2009-03-12 Sold (MLS) $24,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2008-09-18 Listed $25,900 REALCOMP
• 2008-09-18 Listed $25,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2005-07-06 Sold (MLS) $78,000 REALCOMP
• 2005-07-06 Sold (MLS) $78,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2004-09-23 Listed $77,700 REALCOMP
• 2004-09-23 Listed $77,700 SW Michigan MLS

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,441 · -36.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.