20511 Pierson St · Detroit, MI 48219

$144,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,025 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1954 6,098 sqft lot Est $121k · 20% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.7/30.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +4.5/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

GREAT BRICK RANCH LOCATED IN A NICE AREA. JUST ONE BLOCK FROM 8 MILE RD.

Key facts

• 6,098 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1954

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $91 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $140k (3.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $140k (3.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 10.2% in Detroit — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#218 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
• Detroit Public Schools Community District (urban): math 10% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #499 of 540 in MI (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.0%/yr); 305 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,639 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (1,216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($44k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 10 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $18k; list at $145k implies a 683% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $140,173 (3.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.70%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $120,950
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20242 Braile St	0.13mi	3/1.0	1,015 (-1%)	6mo	$115,000	$113	88
20089 Trinity St	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,025 (0%)	4mo	$201,349	$196	82
20300 Chapel St	0.35mi	3/1.0	1,043 (+2%)	1mo	$122,500	$117	80
19711 Chapel St	0.62mi	3/1.0	1,014 (-1%)	1mo	$120,000	$118	69
20266 Greydale Ave	0.48mi	3/1.0	1,072 (+5%)	3mo	$115,000	$107	68
21338 Pembroke Ave	0.46mi	3/1.0	930 (-9%)	1mo	$115,000	$124	62
19734 Westbrook St	0.52mi	3/1.0	950 (-7%)	2mo	$63,500	$67	62
19411 Chapel St	0.72mi	3/1.0	1,014 (-1%)	5mo	$65,000	$64	60
21256 8 1/2 Mile Rd	0.62mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,044 (+2%)	4mo	$169,000	$162	59
21700 Pembroke Ave	0.62mi	3/1.0	1,089 (+6%)	3mo	$155,000	$142	58
19971 Patton St	0.30mi	2/1.5 (-1)	901 (-12%)	3mo	$54,000	$60	56
20116 Greydale Ave	0.50mi	3/1.0	1,164 (+14%)	2mo	$149,500	$128	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-10,230
• Equity at exit: $21,605

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.80×
• Total profit: $32,414
• Equity at exit: $12,528

Cash invested: $40,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48219

• Home prices YoY: -10.3%
• Rents YoY: 8.0%
• Active inventory: 305
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,402 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$196 /mo · $2,350/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$294
• Net cashflow: $91

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,286

Max offer price $144,900

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,225
• Closing costs: $4,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20079 Patton St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1150	$1,550	$1.35	4d	1	0.21mi
19810 Blackstone St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1216	$1,395	$1.15	43d	1	0.42mi
19781 Fielding St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,294	$1.29	4d	1	0.44mi
21422 Pembroke Ave Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	1000	$1,695	$1.70	16d	1	0.49mi
20284 Melrose St Southfield, MI	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,550	$1.29	43d	1	0.57mi
20555 Lahser Rd Detroit, MI	1.0–2.0	1.0	737	$975	$1.32	43d	2	0.61mi
47129 Wedgewood Southfield, MI	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1000	$1,275	$1.27	43d	1	0.65mi
19457 Evergreen Rd Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,200	$1.09	43d	1	0.71mi
19928 Houghton St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	880	$1,495	$1.70	10d	1	0.74mi
20271 Grandville Ave Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1010	$1,550	$1.53	23d	1	0.74mi
22238 Pembroke Ave Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	1100	$1,500	$1.36	43d	1	0.81mi
19372 Grandville Ave Detroit, MI	2.0	1.5	733	$1,050	$1.43	14d	1	1.02mi
20011 Avon Ave Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,200	$1.20	4d	1	1.08mi
22649 Frisbee St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,495	$1.36	43d	1	1.09mi
19800 Berg Rd Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,550	$1.55	16d	1	1.11mi
18556 Kentfield St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	952	$1,250	$1.31	2d	1	1.11mi
19176 Grandville Ave Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	941	$1,300	$1.38	4d	1	1.12mi
18437 Trinity St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	875	$1,364	$1.56	14d	1	1.19mi
19445 Avon Ave Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1023	$1,550	$1.52	43d	1	1.20mi
18461 Heyden St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,050	$1.05	4d	1	1.21mi
20068 Faust Ave Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	750	$1,100	$1.47	24d	1	1.21mi
19329 Stahelin Ave Unit 1 Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	833	$1,250	$1.50	43d	1	1.21mi
22570 Seven Mile W Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	890	$875	$0.98	43d	1	1.25mi
18274 Fielding St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	700	$1,200	$1.71	16d	1	1.27mi
21455 Pickford St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,275	$1.27	43d	1	1.28mi
18699 Shaftsbury Ave Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	800	$1,000	$1.25	43d	1	1.29mi
20527 Rosemont Ave Detroit, MI	2.0	2.0	975	$1,528	$1.57	43d	1	1.29mi
23411 W Eight Mile Rd Detroit, MI	1.0–2.0	1.0	742	$1,000	$1.35	43d	1	1.30mi
21434 Karl St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,350	$1.35	43d	1	1.31mi
18659 Shaftsbury Ave Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	763	$1,373	$1.80	12d	1	1.32mi
18205 Stout St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	901	$1,078	$1.20	24d	1	1.33mi
18450 Edinborough Rd Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	43d	1	1.35mi
18191 Heyden St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	917	$1,100	$1.20	24d	1	1.37mi
20200 Ashton Ave Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,200	$1.00	16d	1	1.39mi
17721 Westbrook St Detroit, MI	4.0	1.0	1040	$1,125	$1.08	24d	1	1.39mi
19970 Ashton Ave Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,000	$1.00	43d	1	1.41mi
18134 Vaughan St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1060	$1,150	$1.08	16d	1	1.44mi
18452 Shaftsbury Ave Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	927	$1,500	$1.62	16d	1	1.45mi
22419 Fairway Dr Southfield, MI	3.0	1.0	1262	$1,850	$1.47	24d	1	1.45mi
19301 Shiawassee Dr Detroit, MI	1.0–2.0	1.0	740	$1,150	$1.55	43d	2	1.46mi

Listing history 29 events

1. 2024-12-17
   status Pending
2. 2024-01-16
   status Pending 72-char remark

   Show marketing remark (72 chars)

   GREAT BRICK RANCH LOCATED IN A NICE AREA. JUST ONE BLOCK FROM 8 MILE RD.

3. 2024-01-16
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (72 chars)

   GREAT BRICK RANCH LOCATED IN A NICE AREA. JUST ONE BLOCK FROM 8 MILE RD.

4. 2022-09-23
   status Pending
5. 2022-07-28
   historical
6. 2022-04-13
   status Pending 72-char remark

   Show marketing remark (72 chars)

   GREAT BRICK RANCH LOCATED IN A NICE AREA. JUST ONE BLOCK FROM 8 MILE RD.

7. 2022-04-13
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (72 chars)

   GREAT BRICK RANCH LOCATED IN A NICE AREA. JUST ONE BLOCK FROM 8 MILE RD.

8. 2022-04-13
   historical 72-char remark

   Show marketing remark (72 chars)

   GREAT BRICK RANCH LOCATED IN A NICE AREA. JUST ONE BLOCK FROM 8 MILE RD.

9. 2022-04-12
   historical
10. 2022-04-12
    historical
11. 2022-04-02
    listed $144,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (72 chars)

    GREAT BRICK RANCH LOCATED IN A NICE AREA. JUST ONE BLOCK FROM 8 MILE RD.

12. 2022-04-02
    listed $144,900 Active 72-char remark

    Show marketing remark (72 chars)

    GREAT BRICK RANCH LOCATED IN A NICE AREA. JUST ONE BLOCK FROM 8 MILE RD.

13. 2015-12-01
    historical
14. 2015-12-01
    historical
15. 2015-09-10
    listed $44,900
16. 2015-09-10
    listed $44,900
17. 2008-10-24
    soldstatus $18,500
18. 2008-03-05
    listed $29,900
19. 2007-03-29
    historical
20. 2006-09-29
    listed $114,900
21. 2006-09-21
    historical
22. 2006-09-21
    historical
23. 2006-06-21
    listed $127,500
24. 2006-06-21
    listed $127,500
25. 2006-06-09
    historical
26. 2006-04-01
    listed $129,000
27. 2003-09-08
    historical
28. 2003-05-23
    listed $129,900
29. 1995-06-08
    soldstatus $55,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,350 · $196/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,350 · $196/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,821
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,117
• − Property taxes: −$2,350
• − Insurance: −$724
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,346
• − Management: −$1,346
• − Depreciation: −$4,215
• Taxable loss: −$1,277
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$307
• After-tax cash flow: $1,402/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Detroit Public Schools Community District
• NCES district ID: 2601103
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $25,815
• Composite: 13.06/100
• National rank: #9564
• State rank: #499 of 540 in MI

Livability — Detroit

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #218
• US rank: #5427

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Detroit, MI
• County: Wayne County · 1,562,939 people
• City population: 572,865
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 47,208
• Household income: $43,655
• Rent vs Own: 45.1% rent · 54.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 3584.0

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,675,273 people
• By 2030: 1,620,300 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 1,502,341 · -10.3%
• By 2050: 1,384,039 · -17.4%
• By 2075: 1,124,592 · -32.9%
• By 2100: 881,193 · -47.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 88% White 5% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+29.0) · D 62.7% · R 33.7% · Other 3.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.5pp toward R · 2008: 49.5pp · 2024: 29.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+29.0 2020: D+38.1 2016: D+37.3 2012: D+46.9 2008: D+49.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.06%
• Current HPI: 563.3263
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.04%
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+163.5% since first listed

29 events — show timeline

• 2024-12-17 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2024-01-16 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-01-16 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2022-09-23 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2022-07-28 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2022-04-13 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-04-13 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2022-04-13 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-04-12 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2022-04-12 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2022-04-02 Listed $144,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-04-02 Listed $144,900 REALCOMP
• 2015-12-01 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2015-12-01 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2015-09-10 Listed $44,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2015-09-10 Listed $44,900 REALCOMP
• 2008-10-24 Sold (MLS) $18,500 REALCOMP
• 2008-03-05 Listed $29,900 REALCOMP
• 2007-03-29 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2006-09-29 Listed $114,900 REALCOMP
• 2006-09-21 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2006-09-21 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2006-06-21 Listed $127,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2006-06-21 Listed $127,500 REALCOMP
• 2006-06-09 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2006-04-01 Listed $129,000 REALCOMP
• 2003-09-08 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2003-05-23 Listed $129,900 REALCOMP
• 1995-06-08 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,350 · -40.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.