3111 Rust Ave · Saginaw, MI 48601

$54,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,052 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1941 0.54 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This charming bungalow includes three additional parcels (four total) for roughly 0.54 acre—a rare find in the city of Saginaw. Inside, the 3 bedrooms and 1.5 baths are complemented by inviting living areas, a cozy fireplace, and a layout that feels like home the moment you walk in. The upstairs offers a peaceful retreat with a walk-in closet, while the finished basement with a half bath adds flexible space for relaxing, hobbies, or guests. Outside, two driveways, a detached 2-car tandem garage, and a fenced yard await. Plus, you're just minutes from downtown Saginaw’s vibrant dining and cultural venues, within close proximity to green parks, and with quick access to I-675. A standout property offering space, comfort, and exceptional value.

Key facts

• Fenced yard
• Walk-in closet
• Finished basement

Tags

• 0.54 ACRE
• COZY FIREPLACE
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• FINISHED BASEMENT
• DETACHED 2-CAR TANDEM GARAGE
• FENCED YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $534 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).
• Cap rate 18.0% vs local median 8.3% in Saginaw — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#521 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Saginaw School District (urban): math 20% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #444 of 540 in MI (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 201 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 154 units permitted in Saginaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Saginaw County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1941 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $54,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1941 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 41.72%
• DSCR: 2.86
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $26,300
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3221 Fulton St	0.16mi	3/1.5	972 (-8%)	1mo	$47,000	$48	77
3232 Ruckle St	0.15mi	3/1.0	1,174 (+12%)	4mo	$41,000	$35	70
1521 Fenton St	0.35mi	3/1.0	1,100 (+5%)	9mo	$28,000	$25	68
1541 Emily St	0.34mi	3/1.0	999 (-5%)	10mo	$20,000	$20	67
919 S 4th Ave	0.54mi	3/1.0	1,090 (+4%)	3mo	$4,000	$4	66
1923 Phelon St	0.51mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,000 (-5%)	0mo	$4,500	$5	63
1432 Cornelia St	0.63mi	3/1.0	1,034 (-2%)	8mo	$23,000	$22	61
2411 Beechwood Ave	0.47mi	3/1.0	952 (-10%)	8mo	$40,000	$42	56
2523 E Holland Ave	0.55mi	2/1.0 (-1)	987 (-6%)	8mo	$18,100	$18	52
1928 Parkwood Ave	0.73mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,105 (+5%)	5mo	$31,100	$28	49
2928 Walters Dr	0.74mi	3/1.0	936 (-11%)	7mo	$36,000	$38	42
2316 Whittier St	0.73mi	2/1.0 (-1)	932 (-11%)	11mo	$11,250	$12	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 38.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.64×
• Total profit: $25,155
• Equity at exit: $8,186

10-year hold

• IRR: 44.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.28×
• Total profit: $65,784
• Equity at exit: $4,747

Cash invested: $15,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48601

• Home prices YoY: -32.1%
• Active inventory: 201
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,146 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax from tax record: −$60 /mo · $720/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$241
• Net cashflow: $534

Break-even live

Break-even rent $469

Max offer price $54,900

Occupancy floor 48%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $566	-5% $550	+0% $534	+5% $519	+10% $503
Rent	-10% $444	-5% $489	+0% $534	+5% $580	+10% $625
Rate	-1.0pp $562	-0.5pp $548	base $534	+0.5pp $520	+1.0pp $506

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,725
• Closing costs: $1,647
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3328 Webber St Saginaw, MI	3.0	1.0	878	$1,250	$1.42	44d	1	0.26mi
2554 Apollo Dr Unit AP2554 Saginaw, MI	3.0	2.0	960	$883	$0.92	44d	1	1.44mi
2564 Apollo Dr Unit AP2564 Saginaw, MI	3.0	2.0	960	$883	$0.92	44d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-03-29
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (762 chars)

   This charming bungalow includes three additional parcels (four total) for roughly 0.54 acre—a rare find in the city of Saginaw. Inside, the 3 bedrooms and 1.5 baths are complemented by inviting living areas, a cozy fireplace, and a layout that feels like home the moment you walk in. The upstairs offers a peaceful retreat with a walk-in closet, while the finished basement with a half bath adds flexible space for relaxing, hobbies, or guests. Outside, two driveways, a detached 2-car tandem garage, and a fenced yard await. Plus, you're just minutes from downtown Saginaw’s vibrant dining and cultural venues, within close proximity to green parks, and with quick access to I-675. A standout property offering space, comfort, and exceptional value.

2. 2026-03-29
   status Pending 762-char remark

   Show marketing remark (762 chars)

   This charming bungalow includes three additional parcels (four total) for roughly 0.54 acre—a rare find in the city of Saginaw. Inside, the 3 bedrooms and 1.5 baths are complemented by inviting living areas, a cozy fireplace, and a layout that feels like home the moment you walk in. The upstairs offers a peaceful retreat with a walk-in closet, while the finished basement with a half bath adds flexible space for relaxing, hobbies, or guests. Outside, two driveways, a detached 2-car tandem garage, and a fenced yard await. Plus, you're just minutes from downtown Saginaw’s vibrant dining and cultural venues, within close proximity to green parks, and with quick access to I-675. A standout property offering space, comfort, and exceptional value.

3. 2026-03-29
   historical Accepting Backup Offers 762-char remark

   Show marketing remark (762 chars)

   This charming bungalow includes three additional parcels (four total) for roughly 0.54 acre—a rare find in the city of Saginaw. Inside, the 3 bedrooms and 1.5 baths are complemented by inviting living areas, a cozy fireplace, and a layout that feels like home the moment you walk in. The upstairs offers a peaceful retreat with a walk-in closet, while the finished basement with a half bath adds flexible space for relaxing, hobbies, or guests. Outside, two driveways, a detached 2-car tandem garage, and a fenced yard await. Plus, you're just minutes from downtown Saginaw’s vibrant dining and cultural venues, within close proximity to green parks, and with quick access to I-675. A standout property offering space, comfort, and exceptional value.

4. 2026-03-27
   listed $54,900 Active

   Show marketing remark (762 chars)

   This charming bungalow includes three additional parcels (four total) for roughly 0.54 acre—a rare find in the city of Saginaw. Inside, the 3 bedrooms and 1.5 baths are complemented by inviting living areas, a cozy fireplace, and a layout that feels like home the moment you walk in. The upstairs offers a peaceful retreat with a walk-in closet, while the finished basement with a half bath adds flexible space for relaxing, hobbies, or guests. Outside, two driveways, a detached 2-car tandem garage, and a fenced yard await. Plus, you're just minutes from downtown Saginaw’s vibrant dining and cultural venues, within close proximity to green parks, and with quick access to I-675. A standout property offering space, comfort, and exceptional value.

5. 2026-03-27
   listed $54,900 Active 762-char remark

   Show marketing remark (762 chars)

   This charming bungalow includes three additional parcels (four total) for roughly 0.54 acre—a rare find in the city of Saginaw. Inside, the 3 bedrooms and 1.5 baths are complemented by inviting living areas, a cozy fireplace, and a layout that feels like home the moment you walk in. The upstairs offers a peaceful retreat with a walk-in closet, while the finished basement with a half bath adds flexible space for relaxing, hobbies, or guests. Outside, two driveways, a detached 2-car tandem garage, and a fenced yard await. Plus, you're just minutes from downtown Saginaw’s vibrant dining and cultural venues, within close proximity to green parks, and with quick access to I-675. A standout property offering space, comfort, and exceptional value.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $720 · $60/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $783 · $65/mo
• Expected delta: +$63/yr (+$5/mo · 8.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,750
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,075
• − Property taxes: −$720
• − Insurance: −$274
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,100
• − Management: −$1,100
• − Depreciation: −$1,597
• Taxable income: $5,883
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,412
• After-tax cash flow: $5,001/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Saginaw School District
• NCES district ID: 2630390
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $28,940
• Composite: 19.6/100
• National rank: #8755
• State rank: #444 of 540 in MI

Livability — Saginaw

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #521
• US rank: #15424

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Saginaw, MI
• City population: 54,884
• Population (ZIP): 32,069

Population outlook (Saginaw County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 180,568 people
• By 2030: 172,302 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 153,919 · -14.8%
• By 2050: 135,519 · -24.9%
• By 2075: 97,199 · -46.2%
• By 2100: 65,037 · -64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 59% White 27% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Saginaw

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 17.3pp · 2024: -3.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.3 2020: D+0.3 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+11.9 2008: D+17.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.46%
• Current HPI: 197.3359
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-29 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-03-29 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-29 Contingent — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-27 Listed $54,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-27 Listed $54,900 REALCOMP

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $720 · -23.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.