8331 County Road 109 · The Villages, FL 32159

$289,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,240 sqft · Manufactured public records · 70 Days on market

Built 1999 0.58 ac lot Est $352k · 18% under ↓ 45% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

BUYER ALERT! THIS PROPERTY MAY BE ELIGIBLE FOR 24 HOME BUYER ASSISTANCE PROGRAMS AND UP TO $35,000 IN DOWN PAYMENT HELP! Triple Your Enjoyment! Freshly Updated 4 Bedroom, 2 Bathroom Triple-Wide Manufactured Home with Open Split Floor Plan and 2,240 Sq Ft of Living Area on a Beautiful Oversized 1/2+ Acre Lot with Double-Pad Concrete Driveway Providing Plenty of Room for All Your Vehicles • All New Luxury Vinyl Flooring Throughout • Vaulted Ceilings • Super Spacious Living Room with Wood Burning Fireplace • Large Gourmet Kitchen, Tile Countertops, Double Sink, Dishwasher/Appliances and Plenty of Kitchen Cabinet Space • Formal Dining Room with Glass Patio Sliding Doors

Key facts

• 0.58 acre lot
• Built 1999
• Listed 69 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential; Sub-type: Manufactured Home; Lot size approximately 0.58 acres (about 1/2 acre); Living area reported as 2,240 sq ft; Number of rooms: 10; One septic system; Directions: Just off US 441 North — turn left to Oakland Hills Entrance on County Road 109, proceed 1/4 mile on County Road 109; property on left
• HOA & community: No association reported; Pets allowed (cats and dogs permitted)

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Oversized parking; Parking pad
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Broadband/high-speed internet available; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured home (triple wide); One story; Northeast facing
• Construction: Vinyl siding with frame construction; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as a triple wide manufactured home
• Exterior features: Front porch; Hurricane shutters; Rain gutters; Sliding doors; Shed(s) and storage; Mature landscaping; Oversized lot; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Open floorplan; Thermostat; Vaulted ceilings; Walk-in closets; Living room stone wood-burning fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room; Electric dryer hookup; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $273 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $258k (11.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $258k (11.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 5.0% in The Villages — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#431 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Sumter (rural): math 61% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #11 of 73 in FL (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 576 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,961 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (248 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,577/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($59k/yr) (locally 1047% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sumter County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $110k; list at $290k implies a 164% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $257,657 (11.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.03%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $351,680
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8009 County Road 109d	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,072 (-8%)	11mo	$255,000	$123	52
7823 County Road 109	0.50mi	4/2.0	1,932 (-14%)	7mo	$302,500	$157	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.03% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-27,007
• Equity at exit: $43,225

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $9,724
• Equity at exit: $25,065

Cash invested: $81,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32159

• Home prices YoY: -16.0%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 576
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,577 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,520
• Tax from tax record: −$122 /mo · $1,458/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$541
• Net cashflow: $273

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,231

Max offer price $289,900

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,475
• Closing costs: $8,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13904 County Road 109D Lady Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,550	$0.99	21d	1	0.30mi
1377 Camero Dr Lady Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1462	$5,500	$3.76	21d	1	0.33mi
1505 Doria Ln Lady Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	2048	$3,500	$1.71	21d	1	0.55mi
13765 NE 136th Loop Lady Lake, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1078	$1,991	$1.85	21d	36	0.61mi
17817 SE 115th Ct Unit 1 Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	2144	$2,300	$1.07	21d	1	0.64mi
17951 SE 115th Cir Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	1829	$2,100	$1.15	13d	1	0.66mi
11025 SE 174th Loop Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	2377	$2,200	$0.93	21d	1	0.79mi
17408 SE 121st Cir Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	1733	$1,850	$1.07	21d	1	1.09mi
923 Oleander St Lady Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	2076	$4,000	$1.93	23d	1	1.22mi
2126 Sansores St Lady Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1748	$3,700	$2.12	21d	1	1.35mi
2137 Gerardo Ave Lady Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1940	$5,600	$2.89	21d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $289,900 Active 70 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $289,900 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $289,900 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $289,900 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $294,800 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $294,800 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   remarks 674-char remark
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $294,800 Active 63 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $294,800 Active 61 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $294,800 Active 60 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $294,800 Active 59 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $294,800 Active 58 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $294,800 Active 53 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $294,800 Active 52 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $294,800 Active 51 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $294,800 Active 50 DOM
17. 2026-05-15
    price $294,800
18. 2026-04-10
    listed $299,000 Active
19. 2019-08-12
    soldstatus $110,000
20. 1983-06-01
    soldstatus $532,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,458 · $122/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,406 · $201/mo
• Expected delta: +$948/yr (+$79/mo · 65.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,919
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,239
• − Property taxes: −$1,458
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,474
• − Management: −$2,474
• − Depreciation: −$8,433
• Taxable loss: −$1,608
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$386
• After-tax cash flow: $3,661/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sumter
• NCES district ID: 1201800
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,240
• Composite: 51.74/100
• National rank: #1682
• State rank: #11 of 73 in FL

Livability — The Villages

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #431
• US rank: #7363

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lake County · 364,602 people
• City population: 83,973
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 32,107
• Household income: $58,518
• Rent vs Own: 17.6% rent · 82.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1047.0

Population outlook (Sumter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 161,172 people
• By 2030: 180,083 · +11.7%
• By 2040: 209,892 · +30.2%
• By 2050: 234,186 · +45.3%
• By 2075: 284,602 · +76.6%
• By 2100: 317,039 · +96.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5% Black 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sumter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.9% · R 68.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -27.0pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+36.1 2016: R+39.2 2012: R+34.9 2008: R+27.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.24%
• Current HPI: 237.6208
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.03%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-44.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $294,800 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-10 Listed $299,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-08-12 Sold (Public Records) $110,000 Public Records
• 1983-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $532,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,458 · -1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.