1644 E Grovehill Rd · Palm Harbor, FL 34683

$5,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,413 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1980 6,098 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

0

Key facts

• 6,098 sq ft lot
• Built 1980
• Listed 12 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Deed restrictions: None; Pets: See remarks; Rentals: Not allowed; Zoning: Other
• Financial info: Property listed at auction
• HOA & community: No association fee; Association fee covers other items

Exterior

• Utilities: Utilities: Other (see remarks)
• Home design: Other property type; Built in 1980; Above flood: No
• Construction: Other construction
• Exterior features: No waterfront; No waterview; Less than 1/4 acre lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: Bedroom 1; Bedroom 2; Bedroom 3
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Other appliances (see remarks)

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $5,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$391,401) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $5k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($22k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $5k).
• Cap rate 447.2% vs local median 3.1% in Palm Harbor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#95 in FL, #1,470 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, housing A+, commute A; Watch: amenities F.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.3%/yr); 387 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($93k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $35 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $150 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $1k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $5,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 47.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 447.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 1574.85%
• DSCR: 71.07
• GRM: 0.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $391,401
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2102 Grove Valley Ave	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,413 (0%)	7mo	$331,000	$234	82
1790 E Orangeside Rd	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,501 (+6%)	4mo	$427,000	$284	79
2329 E Orangehill Ave	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,424 (+1%)	4mo	$385,000	$270	76
2376 Citrus Hill Rd	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,379 (-2%)	5mo	$458,500	$332	71
2339 Orangeside Rd	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,356 (-4%)	4mo	$540,000	$398	70
1809 Georgia Ave	0.70mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,427 (+1%)	4mo	$340,000	$238	57
128 Stafford Dr	0.60mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,327 (-6%)	3mo	$314,000	$237	55
2397 E Orangehill Ave	0.48mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,252 (-11%)	0mo	$373,000	$298	53
2256 E Orangehill Ave	0.37mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,256 (-11%)	8mo	$300,000	$239	53
2928 Macalpin Dr S	0.73mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,352 (-4%)	1mo	$375,000	$277	53
2457 Orangepointe Ave	0.54mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,286 (-9%)	7mo	$347,500	$270	49
2869 Doone Cir	0.71mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,284 (-9%)	1mo	$355,900	$277	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 79.07×
• Total profit: $109,301
• Equity at exit: $746

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 157.55×
• Total profit: $219,169
• Equity at exit: $432

Cash invested: $1,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34683

• Rents YoY: -4.3%
• Active inventory: 387
• Price-to-rent: 0.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,369 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$26
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$6 /mo · $75/yr
• Insurance: −$2
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$498
• Net cashflow: $1,837

Break-even live

Break-even rent $44

Max offer price $5,000

Occupancy floor 17%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $1,250
• Closing costs: $150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1691 E Orangecrest Ave Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	1193	$2,600	$2.18	16d	1	0.14mi
1701 E Orangeside Rd Palm Harbor, FL	4.0	2.0	1559	$2,935	$1.88	2d	1	0.18mi
1801 E Orangeside Rd Palm Harbor, FL	3.0	2.0	1369	$2,575	$1.88	24d	1	0.20mi
2523 Pine Ridge Way S Unit C2 Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	1038	$1,750	$1.69	24d	1	0.35mi
2575 Pine Ridge Way S Unit A2 Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	1104	$1,590	$1.44	24d	1	0.37mi
485 Westlake Blvd #70 Palm Harbor, FL	3.0	2.5	1685	$2,995	$1.78	24d	1	0.38mi
2334 Citrus Hill Rd Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	1189	$2,350	$1.98	4d	1	0.43mi
144 Stafford Cir Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	1264	$2,295	$1.82	4d	1	0.56mi
2833 Orange Tree Cir N Unit C Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	960	$1,845	$1.92	24d	1	0.68mi
1624 Heather Pl Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	1248	$2,295	$1.84	24d	1	0.72mi
2945 Grovewood Blvd Unit A Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	1030	$1,775	$1.72	18d	1	0.85mi
2481 Malcolm Dr Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	1319	$2,600	$1.97	18d	1	0.85mi
2690 Coral Landings Blvd Palm Harbor, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1135	$2,000	$1.76	12d	2	0.86mi
2869 Thistle Ct N Palm Harbor, FL	3.0	2.0	1630	$2,395	$1.47	24d	1	0.87mi
2309 Malcolm Dr Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	1535	$2,495	$1.63	4d	1	0.87mi
2130 Bancroft Pl Unit E Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	1030	$1,860	$1.81	7d	1	0.91mi
2130 Bancroft Pl Unit E Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	1030	$1,850	$1.80	3d	1	0.91mi
2914 Shannon Cir Palm Harbor, FL	3.0	2.0	1518	$2,800	$1.84	11d	1	0.92mi
2914 Shannon Cir Palm Harbor, FL	3.0	2.0	1518	$2,800	$1.84	24d	1	0.92mi
3023 Beecher Dr E Unit D Palm Harbor, FL	3.0	2.5	1425	$2,400	$1.68	18d	1	0.96mi
2690 Coral Landings Blvd #415 Palm Harbor, FL	3.0	2.0	1351	$2,000	$1.48	19d	1	0.99mi
3121 Beecher Dr E Unit A Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	976	$2,100	$2.15	7d	1	1.00mi
3132 Brunswick Cir Palm Harbor, FL	3.0	2.0	1858	$2,900	$1.56	4d	1	1.00mi
2914 Cypress Green Dr Palm Harbor, FL	3.0	2.0	1245	$2,600	$2.09	19d	1	1.02mi
35820 U.S. 19 Unit C1 Palm Harbor, FL	3.0	2.0	1404	$2,781	$1.98	4d	1	1.08mi
35820 U.S. 19 Unit B1 Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	1116	$2,245	$2.01	4d	1	1.08mi
2701 Penzance St Unit 2701 Palm Harbor, FL	3.0	2.5	1540	$2,095	$1.36	24d	1	1.13mi
3266 Haviland Ct Palm Harbor, FL	3.0	2.0	1210	$1,895	$1.57	24d	1	1.15mi
2700 Penzance St Palm Harbor, FL	3.0	2.5	1540	$2,200	$1.43	15d	1	1.15mi
3300 Fox Chase Cir N Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	906	$2,125	$2.35	1d	2	1.16mi
248 St Ives Dr #248 Palm Harbor, FL	3.0	2.0	1350	$2,300	$1.70	4d	1	1.17mi
36090 US Highway 19 N Palm Harbor, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1046	$3,235	$3.09	3d	66	1.26mi
1328 Illinois Ave Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,700	$1.70	24d	1	1.29mi
1833 Orange Boulevard Way Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,950	$1.95	2d	1	1.38mi
1851 Orange Boulevard Way Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,750	$1.75	24d	1	1.39mi
1825 Orange Boulevard Way Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,950	$1.95	12d	1	1.40mi
1865 Orange Boulevard Way Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,950	$1.95	24d	1	1.42mi
4000 Poinciana Ct Palm Harbor, FL	3.0	2.0	1298	$2,600	$2.00	3d	1	1.44mi
31790 US Highway 19 N Palm Harbor, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	842	$2,066	$2.45	11d	16	1.45mi
245 Lake Tarpon Dr Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,995	$2.00	2d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-14
   listed $5,000 Active
2. 2026-01-14
   historical
3. 2026-01-05
   listed $5,000 Active
4. 2007-07-17
   soldstatus $187,700
5. 2007-06-30
   soldstatus $187,700 1-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1 chars)

   0

6. 2007-06-15
   listed $200,000 1-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1 chars)

   0

7. 1998-10-20
   soldstatus $110,300
8. 1992-06-18
   soldstatus $89,000
9. 1981-09-01
   soldstatus $68,900
10. 1981-05-01
    soldstatus $62,300

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,434
• − Mortgage interest: −$280
• − Property taxes: −$75
• − Insurance: −$25
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,275
• − Management: −$2,275
• − Depreciation: −$145
• Taxable income: $23,359
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$5,606
• After-tax cash flow: $16,442/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pinellas
• NCES district ID: 1201560
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,270
• Composite: 43.27/100
• National rank: #3046
• State rank: #31 of 73 in FL

Livability — Palm Harbor

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #95
• US rank: #1470

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A Cost of living B Crime A- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Palm Harbor, FL
• County: Pinellas County · 939,478 people
• City population: 79,072
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,911
• Household income: $92,885
• Rent vs Own: 18.6% rent · 81.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 919.0

Population outlook (Pinellas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,027,532 people
• By 2030: 1,063,586 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 1,125,020 · +9.5%
• By 2050: 1,168,637 · +13.7%
• By 2075: 1,265,188 · +23.1%
• By 2100: 1,260,357 · +22.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 5% Arabic 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinellas

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.2) · D 46.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.5pp toward R · 2008: 8.3pp · 2024: -5.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.2 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+5.6 2008: D+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -295.95%
• Current HPI: 314.8777
• Rent YoY: ▼ -4.33%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-92.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Listed $5,000 FLKMLS
• 2026-01-14 Listing Removed — FLKMLS
• 2026-01-05 Listed $5,000 FLKMLS
• 2007-07-17 Sold (Public Records) $187,700 Public Records
• 2007-06-30 Sold (MLS) $187,700 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-06-15 Listed $200,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1998-10-20 Sold (Public Records) $110,300 Public Records
• 1992-06-18 Sold (Public Records) $89,000 Public Records
• 1981-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $68,900 Public Records
• 1981-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $62,300 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,856 · +6.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.