3646 Luxor Way · Oakleaf Plantation, FL 32068

$249,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,406 sqft · Townhouse · 47 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 1,742 sqft lot Est $269k · 7% under $150/mo HOA · 7% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.7/30.0
• ARV discount +10.6/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Ellis offers 1,406 sq. ft. across two stories with 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, and a 1-car garage. Enjoy an open-concept main floor with a spacious great room, dining area, and patio, plus a private primary suite and convenient upstairs laundry.

Key facts

• $150 HOA
• Garage
• Built 2026

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with monthly fee ($150); Community park; Community playground

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener (1-car garage)
• Utilities: Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Townhouse (attached property)
• Construction: Fiber cement exterior
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Fenced yard (other type)

Interior

• Kitchen: Disposal; Electric range; ENERGY STAR qualified dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the second level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Kitchen island; Pantry; Primary bathroom with shower (no tub); Smart home features; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on upper level; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $250k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-121 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $232k (7.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (11.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $222k (11.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.0% in Oakleaf Plantation — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#446 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Clay (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 73 in FL (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Tynes Elementary School (math 65% / reading 63%, grade B, #552 of 2,144 statewide, top 26%, 1,021 students, 43% FRL); Oakleaf Junior High (math 50% / reading 54%, grade C+, #217 of 571 statewide, top 40%, 1,118 students, 46% FRL); Ridgeview High School (math 41% / reading 53%, grade D-, #207 of 667 statewide, top 32%, 1,828 students, 46% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 610 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,876 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clay County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $222,354 (11.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.07%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $268,546
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3625 Luxor Way	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,406 (0%)	1mo	$243,990	$174	98
3650 Luxor Way	0.08mi	3/2.5	1,406 (0%)	1mo	$239,990	$171	95
3654 Luxor Way	0.01mi	3/2.5	1,482 (+5%)	2mo	$261,000	$176	89
3165 Chestnut Ridge Way	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,373 (-2%)	1mo	$258,000	$188	67
3620 Prairie Wind Ct	0.41mi	3/2.5	1,340 (-5%)	8mo	$255,990	$191	66
3748 Spotted Fawn Ct	0.46mi	3/2.5	1,340 (-5%)	12mo	$259,990	$194	61
3751 Spotted Fawn Ct	0.47mi	3/2.5	1,340 (-5%)	15mo	$258,990	$193	58
3586 Prairie Wind Ct	0.43mi	3/2.5	1,497 (+6%)	16mo	$278,000	$186	56
3719 Spotted Fawn Ct	0.48mi	3/2.5	1,340 (-5%)	16mo	$259,990	$194	56
3747 Spotted Fawn Ct	0.47mi	3/2.5	1,340 (-5%)	18mo	$271,990	$203	55
3730 Spotted Fawn Ct	0.46mi	3/2.5	1,497 (+6%)	18mo	$285,990	$191	53
3281 Chestnut Ridge Way	0.72mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,228 (-13%)	10mo	$265,000	$216	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.35% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-47,306
• Equity at exit: $37,274

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-47,361
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $69,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32068

• Home prices YoY: -27.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 610
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,224 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$312 /mo · $3,750/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$150
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$467
• Net cashflow: $-121

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,377

Max offer price $232,477

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $52	-5% $-35	+0% $-121	+5% $-207	+10% $-294
Rent	-10% $-297	-5% $-209	+0% $-121	+5% $-33	+10% $55
Rate	-1.0pp $5	-0.5pp $-57	base $-121	+0.5pp $-186	+1.0pp $-252

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,498
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3608 York Ln Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.5	1624	$2,299	$1.42	3d	121	0.12mi
903 Rivertree Pl Middleburg, FL	2.0	2.5	1160	$1,665	$1.44	0d	1	0.48mi
728 Sunny Stroll Dr Middleburg, FL	4.0	2.0	1860	$2,200	$1.18	25d	1	0.52mi
824 Integra Park Dr Middleburg, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1047	$2,258	$2.16	4d	10	0.73mi
670 Grover Ln Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.5	1704	$2,100	$1.23	25d	1	1.17mi
3938 Bloomfield Ct Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.5	1715	$2,275	$1.33	19d	1	1.26mi
3750 Silver Bluff Blvd Orange Park, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0–3.0	1862	$1,850	$0.99	4d	2	1.32mi
1064 Moosehead Dr Orange Park, FL	4.0	2.0	1713	$2,099	$1.23	6d	1	1.36mi
3899 Pebble Brooke Cir Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1502	$1,990	$1.32	6d	1	1.47mi
3886 Pebble Brooke Cir Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1502	$1,850	$1.23	25d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $150 · $1,800/yr

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $249,990 Active 47 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,990 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,990 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,990 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,990 Active 41 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,990 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,990 Active 38 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,990 Active 35 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,990 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $249,990 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,990 Active 29 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,990 Active 28 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,990 Active 27 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,990 Active 26 DOM
15. 2026-05-05
    listed $249,990 Active
16. 2026-04-25
    status Active 244-char remark

    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    The Ellis offers 1,406 sq. ft. across two stories with 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, and a 1-car garage. Enjoy an open-concept main floor with a spacious great room, dining area, and patio, plus a private primary suite and convenient upstairs laundry.

17. 2026-04-25
    historical 244-char remark

    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    The Ellis offers 1,406 sq. ft. across two stories with 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, and a 1-car garage. Enjoy an open-concept main floor with a spacious great room, dining area, and patio, plus a private primary suite and convenient upstairs laundry.

18. 2026-04-22
    status Active 244-char remark

    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    The Ellis offers 1,406 sq. ft. across two stories with 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, and a 1-car garage. Enjoy an open-concept main floor with a spacious great room, dining area, and patio, plus a private primary suite and convenient upstairs laundry.

19. 2026-04-22
    price $249,990 244-char remark

    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    The Ellis offers 1,406 sq. ft. across two stories with 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, and a 1-car garage. Enjoy an open-concept main floor with a spacious great room, dining area, and patio, plus a private primary suite and convenient upstairs laundry.

20. 2026-04-03
    historical 244-char remark

    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    The Ellis offers 1,406 sq. ft. across two stories with 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, and a 1-car garage. Enjoy an open-concept main floor with a spacious great room, dining area, and patio, plus a private primary suite and convenient upstairs laundry.

21. 2026-03-04
    price $250,990 244-char remark

    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    The Ellis offers 1,406 sq. ft. across two stories with 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, and a 1-car garage. Enjoy an open-concept main floor with a spacious great room, dining area, and patio, plus a private primary suite and convenient upstairs laundry.

22. 2026-02-19
    price $255,990 244-char remark

    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    The Ellis offers 1,406 sq. ft. across two stories with 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, and a 1-car garage. Enjoy an open-concept main floor with a spacious great room, dining area, and patio, plus a private primary suite and convenient upstairs laundry.

23. 2026-01-31
    listed $259,990 Active 244-char remark

    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    The Ellis offers 1,406 sq. ft. across two stories with 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, and a 1-car garage. Enjoy an open-concept main floor with a spacious great room, dining area, and patio, plus a private primary suite and convenient upstairs laundry.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,682
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,003
• − Property taxes: −$3,750
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,135
• − Management: −$2,135
• − HOA: −$1,800
• − Depreciation: −$7,272
• Taxable loss: −$5,662
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,359
• After-tax cash flow: $-93/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This move-in-ready townhome is in excellent condition with modern amenities and a great location.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Smart home features — Enhances comfort and energy efficiency
• Both Community amenities — Attracts buyers and renters with additional features

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Smart home features — Enhances comfort and energy efficiency ↑
• Both Community amenities — Attracts buyers and renters with additional features ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clay
• NCES district ID: 1200300
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $59,379
• Composite: 50.73/100
• National rank: #1815
• State rank: #14 of 73 in FL

Livability — Oakleaf Plantation

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #446
• US rank: #8083

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oakleaf Plantation, FL
• County: Clay County · 208,450 people
• City population: 40,366
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 58,983
• Household income: $84,431
• Rent vs Own: 20.7% rent · 79.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 975.0

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 230,495 people
• By 2030: 242,427 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 262,244 · +13.8%
• By 2050: 275,148 · +19.4%
• By 2075: 295,397 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 287,592 · +24.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Arabic 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.3) · D 29.9% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.6pp toward D · 2008: -42.8pp · 2024: -39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.3 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+45.8 2008: R+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -115.99%
• Current HPI: 305.2531
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.35%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-3.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Listed $249,990 realMLS
• 2026-04-25 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-04-25 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-04-22 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $249,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-03 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $250,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $255,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-31 Listed $259,990 Zillow