3646 Luxor Way · Oakleaf Plantation, FL 32068

$244,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,406 sqft · Townhouse · 142 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 1,742 sqft lot 1-car garage $174/sqft · 7% below area Est $262k · 7% under $150/mo HOA · 7% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.5/15.0
• Cash flow +10.3/30.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Ellis offers 1,406 sq. ft. across two stories with 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, and a 1-car garage. Enjoy an open-concept main floor with a spacious great room, dining area, and patio, plus a private primary suite and convenient upstairs laundry.

Key facts

• $150 HOA
• Garage
• Built 2026

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $245k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-137 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $225k (8.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $216k (11.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $216k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 4.0% in Oakleaf Plantation — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#446 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Clay (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 73 in FL (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Tynes Elementary School (math 65% / reading 63%, grade B, #552 of 2,144 statewide, top 26%, 1,021 students, 43% FRL); Oakleaf Junior High (math 50% / reading 54%, grade C+, #217 of 571 statewide, top 40%, 1,118 students, 46% FRL); Ridgeview High School (math 41% / reading 53%, grade D-, #207 of 667 statewide, top 32%, 1,828 students, 46% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 875 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,876 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clay County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 142 days — a 12% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $215,591 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 142 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.39%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $262,495
• List price: $244,990
• Delta: -6.67%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3645 Luxor Way	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,406 (0%)	1mo	$255,000	$181	98
3641 Luxor Way	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,406 (0%)	1mo	$244,990	$174	98
3622 Luxor Way	0.02mi	3/2.5	1,406 (0%)	3mo	$257,990	$183	97
3653 Luxor Way	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,406 (0%)	2mo	$239,990	$171	97
3633 Luxor Way	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,482 (+5%)	2mo	$263,990	$178	88
3632 Luxor Way	0.11mi	3/2.5	1,482 (+5%)	1mo	$259,990	$175	85
3786 Cairo Way	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,598 (+14%)	1mo	$293,000	$183	76
823 Iken St	0.15mi	3/2.5	1,598 (+14%)	2mo	$284,990	$178	69
815 Iken St	0.14mi	3/2.5	1,598 (+14%)	3mo	$279,990	$175	68
3794 Cairo Way	0.18mi	3/2.5	1,598 (+14%)	2mo	$289,990	$181	68
3766 Cairo Way	0.19mi	3/2.5	1,598 (+14%)	2mo	$298,490	$187	67
3260 Chestnut Ridge Way	0.70mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,381 (-2%)	2mo	$247,500	$179	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.35% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-47,507
• Equity at exit: $36,529

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-48,905
• Equity at exit: $21,182

Cash invested: $68,597 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 14 active · 15 under contract
• Months of supply: 5.2 mo (19%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $250,532 ($184/sqft)
• Median days on market: 103 d
• This list price: 43% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +1.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 32068

• Home prices YoY: -27.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 875
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,160 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$306 /mo · $3,675/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$150
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$454
• Net cashflow: $-137

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,333

Max offer price $225,232

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $33	-5% $-52	+0% $-137	+5% $-221	+10% $-306
Rent	-10% $-307	-5% $-222	+0% $-137	+5% $-51	+10% $34
Rate	-1.0pp $-13	-0.5pp $-74	base $-137	+0.5pp $-200	+1.0pp $-265

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,248
• Closing costs: $7,350
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3608 York Ln Middleburg, FL	2.0–3.0	2.5	1624	$2,699	$1.66	0d	87	0.12mi
3363 Roundabout Dr Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.5	1420	$1,960	$1.38	10d	1	0.23mi
3587 Evers Cv Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1557	$1,979	$1.27	0d	1	0.24mi
3604 Prairie Wind Ct Middleburg, FL	2.0	2.5	1160	$1,650	$1.42	7d	1	0.39mi
656 Sunny Stroll Dr Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1345	$1,779	$1.32	64d	1	0.42mi
827 Rivertree Pl Middleburg, FL	2.0	2.5	1160	$1,750	$1.51	10d	1	0.45mi
903 Rivertree Pl Middleburg, FL	2.0	2.5	1160	$1,665	$1.44	93d	1	0.48mi
903 Rivertree Pl Middleburg, FL	2.0	2.5	1160	$1,665	$1.44	83d	1	0.48mi
728 Sunny Stroll Dr Middleburg, FL	4.0	2.0	1860	$2,200	$1.18	119d	1	0.52mi
824 Integra Park Dr Middleburg, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1068	$2,438	$2.28	0d	20	0.73mi
816 Redtail Ln Middleburg, FL	4.0	2.0	1821	$2,100	$1.15	10d	1	0.94mi
3480 Waterford Oaks Dr Unit 22 Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1768	$1,500	$0.85	4d	1	0.96mi
3480 Waterford Oaks Dr Orange Park, FL	4.0	2.0	1768	$2,195	$1.24	0d	1	0.96mi
3349 Horseshoe Trail Dr Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1771	$2,060	$1.16	3d	1	1.06mi
670 Grover Ln Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.5	1704	$1,950	$1.14	67d	1	1.17mi
607 Reese Ave Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.5	1475	$1,800	$1.22	0d	1	1.19mi
619 Grover Ln Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.5	1683	$1,895	$1.13	88d	1	1.21mi
1255 Bedrock Dr Orange Park, FL	4.0	2.0	1673	$2,271	$1.36	4d	1	1.22mi
3938 Bloomfield Ct Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.5	1715	$2,275	$1.33	113d	1	1.26mi
3938 Bloomfield Ct Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.5	1715	$2,195	$1.28	10d	1	1.26mi
979 Misty Maple Ct Orange Park, FL	4.0	2.0	1673	$2,145	$1.28	10d	1	1.26mi
3750 Silver Bluff Blvd Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.5–3.0	1760	$1,850	$1.05	88d	1	1.32mi
3750 Silver Bluff Blvd Orange Park, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0–3.0	1862	$1,850	$0.99	97d	2	1.32mi
1064 Moosehead Dr Orange Park, FL	4.0	2.0	1713	$1,949	$1.14	67d	1	1.36mi
4007 Leatherwood Dr Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.5	1817	$2,166	$1.19	58d	1	1.37mi
3899 Pebble Brooke Cir Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1502	$1,990	$1.32	99d	1	1.47mi
3886 Pebble Brooke Cir Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1502	$1,850	$1.23	119d	1	1.48mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with monthly fee ($150)Community parkCommunity playground

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener (1-car garage)
• Utilities: Public sewerCable availableElectricity connectedSewer connectedWater connected
• Home design: Townhouse (attached property)
• Construction: Fiber cement exterior
• Exterior features: Shingle roofFenced yard (other type)

Interior

• Kitchen: DisposalElectric rangeENERGY STAR qualified dishwasherMicrowaveRefrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the second level)
• Flooring: CarpetTile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral air
• Interior features: Open floorplanKitchen islandPantryPrimary bathroom with shower (no tub)Smart home featuresWalk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on upper levelElectric water heater

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $244,990 Active 142 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $244,990 Active 141 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $244,990 Active 140 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $244,990 Active 139 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $244,990 Active 138 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $244,990 Active 137 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $244,990 Active 136 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $244,990 Active 135 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $244,990 Active 134 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $244,990 Active 133 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $244,990 Active 132 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $244,990 Active 131 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $244,990 Active 130 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $244,990 Active 129 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $244,990 Active 123 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $244,990 Active 122 DOM
17. 2026-09-03
    pricedays on market $244,990 Active 121 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $245,990 Active 118 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $245,990 Active 116 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $245,990 Active 115 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $245,990 Active 114 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $245,990 Active 112 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $245,990 Active 111 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $245,990 Active 110 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $245,990 Active 109 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $245,990 Active 108 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    pricedays on market $245,990 Active 107 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $248,990 Active 106 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $248,990 Active 105 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $248,990 Active 104 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $248,990 Active 103 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $248,990 Active 102 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $248,990 Active 101 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $248,990 Active 100 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $248,990 Active 99 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $248,990 Active 98 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $248,990 Active 97 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $248,990 Active 96 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $248,990 Active 95 DOM
40. 2026-08-07
    days on market $248,990 Active 94 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $248,990 Active 93 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $248,990 Active 92 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $248,990 Active 91 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $248,990 Active 90 DOM
45. 2026-08-01
    price $248,990 Active 87 DOM
46. 2026-07-31
    days on market $251,150 Active 87 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $251,150 Active 85 DOM
48. 2026-07-28
    pricedays on market $251,150 Active 84 DOM
49. 2026-07-26
    days on market $249,990 Active 82 DOM
50. 2026-07-24
    days on market $249,990 Active 80 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,922
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,723
• − Property taxes: −$3,675
• − Insurance: −$1,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,074
• − Management: −$2,074
• − HOA: −$1,800
• − Depreciation: −$7,127
• Taxable loss: −$5,776
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,386
• After-tax cash flow: $-252/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This move-in-ready townhome is in excellent condition with modern amenities and a great location.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Smart home features — Enhances comfort and energy efficiency ↑
• Both Community amenities — Attracts buyers and renters with additional features ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 54/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Tynes Elementary School B FL #552/2,144 Nat'l #5,798/41,679 Middle Oakleaf Junior High C+ FL #217/571 Nat'l #3,033/14,009 High Ridgeview High School D- FL #207/667 Nat'l #6,330/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clay
• NCES district ID: 1200300
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $59,379
• Composite: 50.73/100
• National rank: #1815
• State rank: #14 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Oakleaf Plantation

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #446
• US rank: #8083

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oakleaf Plantation, FL
• County: Clay County · 230,495 people
• City population: 40,366
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 58,983
• Household income: $84,431
• Rent vs Own: 20.7% rent · 79.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 16% of renters

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Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 230,495 people
• By 2030: 242,427 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 262,244 · +13.8%
• By 2050: 275,148 · +19.4%
• By 2075: 295,397 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 287,592 · +24.8%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Arabic 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.3) · D 29.9% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.6pp toward D · 2008: -42.8pp · 2024: -39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.3 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+45.8 2008: R+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -115.99%
• Current HPI: 305.2531
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.35%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with monthly fee ($150)Community parkCommunity playground

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener (1-car garage)
• Utilities: Public sewerCable availableElectricity connectedSewer connectedWater connected
• Home design: Townhouse (attached property)
• Construction: Fiber cement exterior
• Exterior features: Shingle roofFenced yard (other type)

Interior

• Kitchen: DisposalElectric rangeENERGY STAR qualified dishwasherMicrowaveRefrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the second level)
• Flooring: CarpetTile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral air
• Interior features: Open floorplanKitchen islandPantryPrimary bathroom with shower (no tub)Smart home featuresWalk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on upper levelElectric water heater

Price history

-3.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Listed $249,990 realMLS
• 2026-04-25 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-04-25 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-04-22 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $249,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-03 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $250,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $255,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-31 Listed $259,990 Zillow