816 Southern Woods Pl SW · Rochester, MN 55902

$485,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,602 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 138 Days on market

Built 2001 0.35 ac lot $186/sqft · 12% below area Est $577k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.7/15.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• Livability +4.6/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

What a beautiful house! Convenient location close to schools, Hwy 52, 63, and I-90. The house is very well maintained! New Roof, Gutters and Soffits all around the house. New patio door. Nice flooring and open-concept design. It has a private backyard where you can enjoy the quiet neighborhood. You will love the master bedroom with walk-in closets and a separate walk-in shower and jetted tub. Has all the features you're looking for! Must see!

Key facts

• Open-concept design
• Private backyard
• Walk-in closets

Tags

• CONVENIENT LOCATION
• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD
• OPEN-CONCEPT DESIGN
• WALK-IN CLOSETS
• SEPARATE WALK-IN SHOWER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $485k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-486 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $399k (17.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $342k (29.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $342k (29.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.6% in Rochester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 92/100 on livability (#1 in MN, #27 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+.
• Rochester Public School District (urban): math 40% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #152 of 301 in MN (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Bamber Valley Elementary (math 48% / reading 53%, grade D+, #412 of 857 statewide, top 48%, 633 students, 26% FRL); Willow Creek Middle (math 19% / reading 36%, grade F, #213 of 258 statewide, top 82%, 890 students, 45% FRL); Mayo Senior High (math 42% / reading 65%, grade C-, #104 of 471 statewide, top 22%, 1,862 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 34% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 393 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,267 units permitted in Olmsted County in 2024 (915 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($121k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Olmsted County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 138 days — a 12% lower offer ($427k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $65k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $485k implies a 980% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $341,583 (29.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 138 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.30%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $577,254
• List price: $485,000
• Delta: -15.98%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.55% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-114,538
• Equity at exit: $72,315

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.17×
• Total profit: $-159,421
• Equity at exit: $41,934

Cash invested: $135,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55902

• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 393
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,416 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,543
• Tax from tax record: −$440 /mo · $5,274/yr
• Insurance: −$202
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$717
• Net cashflow: $-486

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,032

Max offer price $399,063

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-212	-5% $-349	+0% $-486	+5% $-624	+10% $-761
Rent	-10% $-756	-5% $-621	+0% $-486	+5% $-352	+10% $-217
Rate	-1.0pp $-242	-0.5pp $-363	base $-486	+0.5pp $-612	+1.0pp $-740

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $121,250
• Closing costs: $14,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
918 Southern Woods Pl SW Rochester, MN	4.0	3.0	2788	$4,200	$1.51	46d	1	0.06mi
3714 10th Ave SW Rochester, MN	3.0	2.0	1783	$2,250	$1.26	15d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $485,000 Active 138 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $485,000 Active 136 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $485,000 Active 135 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $485,000 Active 134 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $485,000 Active 133 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $485,000 Active 132 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $485,000 Active 130 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $485,000 Active 129 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $485,000 Active 127 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $485,000 Active 126 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $485,000 Active 125 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $485,000 Active 124 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $485,000 Active 121 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $485,000 Active 120 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $485,000 Active 119 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $485,000 Active 118 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $485,000 Active 117 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $485,000 Active 116 DOM
19. 2026-04-01
    price $485,000 449-char remark

    Show marketing remark (449 chars)

    What a beautiful house! Convenient location close to schools, Hwy 52, 63, and I-90. The house is very well maintained! New Roof, Gutters and Soffits all around the house. New patio door. Nice flooring and open-concept design. It has a private backyard where you can enjoy the quiet neighborhood. You will love the master bedroom with walk-in closets and a separate walk-in shower and jetted tub. Has all the features you're looking for! Must see!

20. 2026-03-06
    price $524,500 449-char remark

    Show marketing remark (449 chars)

    What a beautiful house! Convenient location close to schools, Hwy 52, 63, and I-90. The house is very well maintained! New Roof, Gutters and Soffits all around the house. New patio door. Nice flooring and open-concept design. It has a private backyard where you can enjoy the quiet neighborhood. You will love the master bedroom with walk-in closets and a separate walk-in shower and jetted tub. Has all the features you're looking for! Must see!

21. 2026-02-03
    listed $549,800 Active 449-char remark

    Show marketing remark (449 chars)

    What a beautiful house! Convenient location close to schools, Hwy 52, 63, and I-90. The house is very well maintained! New Roof, Gutters and Soffits all around the house. New patio door. Nice flooring and open-concept design. It has a private backyard where you can enjoy the quiet neighborhood. You will love the master bedroom with walk-in closets and a separate walk-in shower and jetted tub. Has all the features you're looking for! Must see!

22. 2024-08-12
    historical
23. 2024-03-08
    listed $615,800 Active
24. 2000-10-26
    soldstatus $44,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,274 · $440/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,353 · $446/mo
• Expected delta: +$79/yr (+$7/mo · 1.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,990
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,168
• − Property taxes: −$5,274
• − Insurance: −$2,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,279
• − Management: −$3,279
• − Depreciation: −$14,109
• Taxable loss: −$14,544
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,491
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,347/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rochester Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2731800
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $66,540
• Composite: 40.6/100
• National rank: #3695
• State rank: #152 of 301 in MN

Livability — Rochester

• Score: 92/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #27

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rochester, MN
• County: Olmsted County · 135,035 people
• City population: 135,035
• Metro: Rochester, MN
• Population (ZIP): 26,464
• Household income: $120,611
• Rent vs Own: 27.6% rent · 72.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 728.0

Population outlook (Olmsted County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 165,999 people
• By 2030: 172,425 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 183,785 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 192,981 · +16.3%
• By 2075: 215,284 · +29.7%
• By 2100: 224,887 · +35.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Asian 11% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 11% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 4% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Olmsted

• 2024 margin: D (+10.7) · D 54.3% · R 43.6% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.4pp toward D · 2008: 3.3pp · 2024: 10.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.7 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+0.8 2012: D+3.2 2008: D+3.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -158.29%
• Current HPI: 252.3502
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• Metro: Rochester, MN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+980.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $485,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $524,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-03 Listed $549,800 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-12 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-08 Listed $615,800 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-10-26 Sold (Public Records) $44,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,274 · +10.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.