74711 Dillon Rd #312 · Sky Valley, CA 92241

$185,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,104 sqft · Manufactured public records · 112 Days on market

Built 2012 2,500 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.1/30.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Family Friendly Sky Valley Resort! This 2012 double-wide manufactured home shows like a brand-new home and is located at the end of a cul-de-sac on the most desirable lot with a breathtaking panoramic view from the back porch of the majestic mountains and blue skies on the Wild West Wash! This property offers 2 bedrooms and a den/office bonus room that can easily be converted to a 3rd bedroom, an open and inviting floor plan, dual pane windows, high ceilings, can lights, breakfast bar, quality cabinetry, individual laundry room, and is light and bright. Offered almost completely furnished with ample storage space throughout. The lengthy enclosed parking area has an ample shed/s

Key facts

• Panoramic view
• Shed storage area
• Cul-de-sac

Tags

• CUL-DE-SAC
• PANORAMIC VIEW
• ENCLOSED PARKING AREA
• SHED STORAGE AREA
• CONCRETE WALKWAYS
• LOW MAINTENANCE LANDSCAPING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $365 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $185k).
• Recommended offer: $168k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,041 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Palm Springs Unified (suburban): math 21% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #328 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 218 active listings in the ZIP; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 112 days — a 9% lower offer ($168k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $168,350 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 112 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.46%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $110,400
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
74711 Dillon Rd #534	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,152 (+4%)	4mo	$82,000	$71	89
74711 Dillon Rd #599	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,152 (+4%)	1mo	$115,000	$100	86
74711 Dillon Rd #511	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,152 (+4%)	18mo	$115,000	$100	78
74711 Dillon Rd #507	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+13%)	3mo	$147,500	$118	76
74711 Dillon Rd #427	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,152 (+4%)	14mo	$150,000	$130	75
74711 Dillon Rd #421	0.33mi	2/2.0	1,150 (+4%)	4mo	$135,000	$117	74
74711 Dillon Rd #614	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+13%)	6mo	$70,000	$56	73
74711 Dillon Rd #349	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,040 (-6%)	15mo	$80,000	$77	72
74711 Dillon Spc 320 Rd #320	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,000 (-9%)	17mo	$110,000	$110	70
74711 Dillon Rd #519	0.13mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,056 (-4%)	15mo	$102,000	$97	69
74711 Dillon #373	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+13%)	14mo	$120,000	$96	67
74711 Dillon Rd #513	0.13mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (+13%)	18mo	$81,920	$66	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-6,792
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.46×
• Total profit: $23,712
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92241

• Home prices YoY: -22.8%
• Active inventory: 218
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,853 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$51 /mo · $611/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$389
• Net cashflow: $365

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,390

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $470	-5% $418	+0% $365	+5% $313	+10% $261
Rent	-10% $219	-5% $292	+0% $365	+5% $439	+10% $512
Rate	-1.0pp $459	-0.5pp $412	base $365	+0.5pp $317	+1.0pp $269

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-03-22
   status Pending
2. 2025-11-29
   listed $185,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $611 · $51/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,406 · $117/mo
• Expected delta: +$795/yr (+$66/mo · 130.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,230
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$611
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,778
• − Management: −$1,778
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable income: $1,393
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$334
• After-tax cash flow: $4,050/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Palm Springs Unified
• NCES district ID: 0629550
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $43,638
• Composite: 26.76/100
• National rank: #7131
• State rank: #328 of 517 in CA

Livability — Sky Valley

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #1041
• US rank: #25108

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime B- Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sky Valley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 8,624

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 46% Two or more races 16% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 57% English-only · Spanish 38% Chinese 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -118.23%
• Current HPI: 400.5663
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-22 Pending — GPSMLS
• 2025-11-29 Listed $185,000 GPSMLS

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $611 · -1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.