Dakota Plan · Ashland, NE 68003

$292,500

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,612 sqft · SingleFamily · 390 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +2.3/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This home is not built and is a sample of an available plan in this neighborhood. Lot not included in price. The Dakota plan is a three-bedroom, two-story with 1,612 square-feet. The home features an oversized living room, dinette with patio access, and large kitchen with pantry closet. The main floor also conveniently incorporates a laundry/mudroom combination right off the garage entry, with a coat closet for extra storage. The second floor includes a master suite with a coffered ceiling and a large walk-in closet.

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Listed 390 days

🏗️ New construction. The $292,500 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $421,662.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $292k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-18k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $206k (29.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (38.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $180k (38.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#8 in NE, #712 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D+, commute F.
• Ashland-Greenwood Public Schools (town): math 51% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #50 of 111 in NE (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 152 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 138 units permitted in Saunders County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $566 appreciation (0.1% local appreciation)).
• Saunders County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 390 days — a 12% lower offer ($257k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $179,900 (38.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 390 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.43% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -15.17%
• DSCR: 0.32
• GRM: 19.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $421,662
• List price: $292,500
• Delta: -30.63%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1017 S 9th Ave	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,537 (-5%)	1mo	$422,525	$275	80
1452 S 9th Ave	0.16mi	3/2.5	1,537 (-5%)	7mo	$426,425	$277	77
1029 S 9th Ave	0.15mi	3/2.5	1,493 (-7%)	2mo	$420,800	$282	77
1249 S 9th Ave	0.05mi	3/2.5	1,417 (-12%)	8mo	$378,545	$267	69
542 Cedar St	0.65mi	3/1.0	1,688 (+5%)	10mo	$255,000	$151	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.13% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-104,722
• Equity at exit: $125,271

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.31×
• Total profit: $-155,165
• Equity at exit: $152,861

Cash invested: $118,066 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Nebraska: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempted; moderate court pace.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 68003

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 152
• Price-to-rent: 13.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,799 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,211
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$527 /mo · $6,325/yr
• Insurance: −$176
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $-1,493

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,689

Max offer price $205,651

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,201	-5% $-1,347	+0% $-1,493	+5% $-1,639	+10% $-1,784
Rent	-10% $-1,635	-5% $-1,564	+0% $-1,493	+5% $-1,422	+10% $-1,351
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,280	-0.5pp $-1,386	base $-1,493	+0.5pp $-1,602	+1.0pp $-1,713

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $105,416
• Closing costs: $12,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2724 Silver St Unit 101 Ashland, NE	2.0	2.0	1299	$1,850	$1.42	2d	1	1.47mi
2724 Silver St Unit 204 Ashland, NE	2.0	2.0	1152	$1,730	$1.50	44d	1	1.47mi
2724 Silver St Unit 206 Ashland, NE	2.0	2.0	1204	$1,810	$1.50	11d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $292,500 Active 390 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $292,500 Active 389 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $292,500 Active 388 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $292,500 Active 387 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $292,500 Active 385 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $292,500 Active 382 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $292,500 Active 381 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $292,500 Active 380 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $292,500 Active 379 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $292,500 Active 376 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $292,500 Active 375 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $292,500 Active 374 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $292,500 Active 373 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $292,500 Active 372 DOM
15. 2026-03-11
    price $292,500 522-char remark

    Show marketing remark (522 chars)

    This home is not built and is a sample of an available plan in this neighborhood. Lot not included in price. The Dakota plan is a three-bedroom, two-story with 1,612 square-feet. The home features an oversized living room, dinette with patio access, and large kitchen with pantry closet. The main floor also conveniently incorporates a laundry/mudroom combination right off the garage entry, with a coat closet for extra storage. The second floor includes a master suite with a coffered ceiling and a large walk-in closet.

16. 2025-05-24
    listed $281,100 Active 522-char remark

    Show marketing remark (522 chars)

    This home is not built and is a sample of an available plan in this neighborhood. Lot not included in price. The Dakota plan is a three-bedroom, two-story with 1,612 square-feet. The home features an oversized living room, dinette with patio access, and large kitchen with pantry closet. The main floor also conveniently incorporates a laundry/mudroom combination right off the garage entry, with a coat closet for extra storage. The second floor includes a master suite with a coffered ceiling and a large walk-in closet.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,588
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,620
• − Property taxes: −$6,325
• − Insurance: −$2,108
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,727
• − Management: −$1,727
• − Depreciation: −$12,267
• Taxable loss: −$26,186
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,285
• After-tax cash flow: $-11,629/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ashland-Greenwood Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3100034
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $59,116
• Composite: 45.72/100
• National rank: #2573
• State rank: #50 of 111 in NE

Livability — Ashland

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #8
• US rank: #712

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,953

Population outlook (Saunders County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 21,261 people
• By 2030: 21,249 · -0.1%
• By 2040: 20,927 · -1.6%
• By 2050: 20,041 · -5.7%
• By 2075: 18,386 · -13.5%
• By 2100: 15,066 · -29.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Italian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 1% Spanish 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Saunders

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.4) · D 26.2% · R 72.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.7pp toward R · 2008: -23.7pp · 2024: -46.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.4 2020: R+45.2 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+33.8 2008: R+23.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.13%
• Current HPI: 293.1932
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 0.68%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NE)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Conglomerate	1	$371B

Price history

+4.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $292,500 Zillow
• 2025-05-24 Listed $281,100 Zillow