2598 New York 43 · Averill Park, NY 12018

$549,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,847 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 2008 1.54 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.7/30.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Truly Unique Must See Contemporary Home Built in 2006. Private wooded 1.5 acre lot w/huge front yard & wrap-around Trex deck across from Glass Lake. Ceramic tile floors throughout gives the feel of Southern living, great for anyone w/allergy concerns and easy to maintain. Fabulous Kitchen w/island and s/s appliances, vaulted ceilings, 1st floor laundry, master bedroom suite w/window overlooking entry. Lots of windows bring in great light. Energy Efficient Propane Heat, A/C, Tankless H2O Heater & Generator. Excellent Condition

Key facts

• Water softener
• Finished basement
• Sunroom addition

Tags

• SUNROOM ADDITION
• FINISHED BASEMENT
• OWNED SOLAR PANELS
• WATER SOFTENER
• HIGH-EFFICIENCY FURNACE
• AUTOMATIC GENERATOR

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener; 2-car garage; Total parking for 8 vehicles; Paved parking
• Security: Smoke detectors; Carbon monoxide detectors
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Updated / remodeled; Below-grade finished area
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt roof; Finished full basement
• Exterior features: Screened wrap-around porch; Composite deck and additional deck; Porch; Paved driveway; Outdoor lighting; Shed(s); Private, sloped, landscaped, wooded lot with views; Waterfront on Glass Lake

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in electric oven; Range / Oven; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on second floor; Additional bedrooms on second floor
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (located on second floor); One half bathroom (located on first floor)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (propane and solar); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Paddle fans; Walk-in closets; Built-in features; Ceramic tile baths; Chair rail; Double-pane, ENERGY STAR qualified windows; Finished full basement
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry room; Washer and dryer included; Tankless water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $549k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $351k (36.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $350k (36.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $350k (36.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#101 in NY, #1,641 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Averill Park Central School District (rural): math 58% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #169 of 590 in NY (top 29%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Miller Hill School (math 57% / reading 67%, grade B, #675 of 2,108 statewide, top 35%, 385 students, 25% FRL); Averill Park High School (math 97% / reading 98%, grade A+, #49 of 1,100 statewide, top 5%, 897 students, 25% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 80% at this address vs 64% district-wide (+16 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Averill Park Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 52 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 405 units permitted in Rensselaer County in 2024 (224 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $59k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $55k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Rensselaer County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$94k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($541k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $290k; list at $549k implies a 89% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $350,000 (36.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.77%
• DSCR: 0.61
• GRM: 13.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.48×
• Total profit: $227,589
• Equity at exit: $494,583

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.73×
• Total profit: $726,676
• Equity at exit: $1,066,586

Cash invested: $153,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12018

• Home prices YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 52
• Price-to-rent: 13.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,879
• Tax from tax record: −$780 /mo · $9,362/yr
• Insurance: −$229
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$735
• Net cashflow: $-1,123

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,921

Max offer price $350,626

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $137,250
• Closing costs: $16,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
204 Eastern Union Tpke Unit 1 Averill Park, NY	3.0	3.0	2600	$3,500	$1.35	14d	1	0.71mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $549,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $549,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $549,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $549,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $549,000 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $549,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $549,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $549,000 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $549,000 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $549,000 Active 2 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    remarks 699-char remark
12. 2026-06-01
    listed $549,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $9,362 · $780/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,362 · $780/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$30,753
• − Property taxes: −$9,362
• − Insurance: −$2,745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,360
• − Management: −$3,360
• − Depreciation: −$15,971
• Taxable loss: −$23,551
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,652
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,823/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Averill Park Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3600016
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $81,340
• Composite: 56.94/100
• National rank: #1113
• State rank: #169 of 590 in NY

Livability — Averill Park

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #101
• US rank: #1641

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,069

Population outlook (Rensselaer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 162,400 people
• By 2030: 161,746 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 158,095 · -2.7%
• By 2050: 152,966 · -5.8%
• By 2075: 140,767 · -13.3%
• By 2100: 124,727 · -23.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 4% Italian 4%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Rensselaer

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.7% · R 49.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.0pp toward R · 2008: 9.3pp · 2024: 1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.4 2020: D+5.6 2016: R+2.9 2012: D+11.8 2008: D+9.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.43%
• Current HPI: 263.2196
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+62.7% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $549,000 Global MLS
• 2017-07-10 Sold (Public Records) $290,000 Public Records
• 2017-07-05 Sold (MLS) $290,000 Global MLS
• 2017-05-26 Pending — Global MLS
• 2017-02-02 Listed $295,000 Global MLS
• 2017-02-02 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2016-11-17 Price Changed $295,000 Global MLS
• 2016-09-07 Price Changed $299,900 Global MLS
• 2016-08-03 Listed $309,900 Global MLS
• 2015-09-01 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2015-04-27 Listed $327,500 Global MLS
• 2015-04-27 Listed $337,500 HVCRMLS

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,362 · -5.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.