37142 Highland Bluff Cir · Dade City, FL 33523

$269,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,370 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 78 Days on market

Built 2015 7,574 sqft lot Est $318k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.3/15.0
• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

MOVE-IN READY. NEW CONSTRUCTION. A beautiful home located in a quiet new subdivison. Open floor plan with a lot of shared living space. The kitchen includes a large pantry closet, breakfast nook and upgraded all-wood cabinetry. Spacious master bedroom with beautiful master bath that includes a large shower and walk-in closet. A Pasco County Neighborhood Stabilization Program (NSP) property and down payment assistance is available. Median income and program restrictions apply. Recapture if value of home exceeds sales price. Up to $25,000 in down payment assistance is available to qualified buyers.

Key facts

• Large side gates
• No cdd fees
• No hoa

Tags

• NO HOA
• NO CDD FEES
• WHOLE-HOME SOLAR SYSTEM
• 72-HOUR BATTERY BACKUP
• LARGE SIDE GATES
• QUIET RESIDENTIAL SETTING

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: No association; Street lights in community; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Off-street parking; Guest parking; 2-car attached garage with garage door opener
• Security: Closed circuit camera(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable connected; Broadband/High-speed internet available; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Southeast facing; Completed condition; Homestead exempt
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built with energy-efficient features including solar and energy monitoring system; Low-flow water fixtures; Ventilation for improved indoor air quality
• Exterior features: Rain gutters; Sliding doors; Sidewalk; Paved lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilings; Vaulted ceiling; High ceilings; Open floorplan; Living room/dining room combo; Ceiling fans; Double pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room; Washer; Dryer; Inside utility

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-46 ($-556/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $262k (3.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $219k (18.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $219k (18.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#307 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Rodney B. Cox Elementary School (math 27% / reading 17%, grade F, #2,080 of 2,144 statewide, top 97%, 428 students, 97% FRL); Pasco High School (math 40% / reading 40%, grade F, #296 of 667 statewide, top 45%, 1,639 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 48% district-wide (33 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 31% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 295 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $76k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($254k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $19k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $146k; list at $270k implies a 85% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $219,173 (18.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.74%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $317,840
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
37142 Highland Bluff Cir	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,400 (+2%)	0mo	$262,800	$188	96
36846 Jefferson Ave	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,368 (-0%)	13mo	$355,000	$260	81
37049 Suwanee Way	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,340 (-2%)	8mo	$240,000	$179	80
14700 State St	0.41mi	3/1.5	1,328 (-3%)	4mo	$249,000	$188	70
36908 Center Ave	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,488 (+9%)	4mo	$354,900	$239	68
14646 15th St	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,454 (+6%)	3mo	$349,000	$240	67
37515 Beauchamp Ave	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,288 (-6%)	2mo	$233,000	$181	65
14348 Graham St	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,246 (-9%)	4mo	$295,000	$237	64
14317 10th St	0.72mi	3/3.0	1,348 (-2%)	4mo	$295,000	$219	56
37137 Florida Ave	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,441 (+5%)	14mo	$335,000	$232	52
14251 13th St	0.54mi	3/2.5	1,525 (+11%)	4mo	$425,000	$279	50
14141 11th St	0.70mi	3/2.5	1,439 (+5%)	12mo	$300,000	$208	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.91×
• Total profit: $144,077
• Equity at exit: $243,236

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.64×
• Total profit: $426,561
• Equity at exit: $524,549

Cash invested: $75,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33523

• Home prices YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 295
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,192 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax from tax record: −$249 /mo · $2,993/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$460
• Net cashflow: $-46

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,250

Max offer price $261,815

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $107	-5% $30	+0% $-46	+5% $-123	+10% $-199
Rent	-10% $-219	-5% $-133	+0% $-46	+5% $40	+10% $127
Rate	-1.0pp $90	-0.5pp $22	base $-46	+0.5pp $-116	+1.0pp $-187

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,500
• Closing costs: $8,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
37329 Magnolia Ave Unit 1234471P Dade City, FL	3.0	2.0	1216	$3,331	$2.74	0d	1	0.33mi
14635 State St Dade City, FL	3.0	1.5	1040	$1,731	$1.66	0d	1	0.36mi
13921 19th St Unit 1234474P Dade City, FL	2.0	1.0	936	$2,013	$2.15	17d	1	0.53mi
13911 19th St Dade City, FL	2.0	1.0	1600	$1,495	$0.93	5d	1	0.54mi
13911 19th St Dade City, FL	2.0	1.0	1600	$1,495	$0.93	4d	1	0.54mi
37802 Whitehouse Ave Dade City, FL	2.0	1.0	1344	$1,150	$0.86	24d	1	0.80mi
14907 Lucca Way Unit 1 Dade City, FL	3.0	2.5	1386	$2,100	$1.52	25d	1	0.92mi
36350 Spanish Rose Dr Dade City, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,149	$1.18	5d	1	1.11mi
13650 5th St Dade City, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,350	$1.50	0d	1	1.21mi
13650 5th St Dade City, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,350	$1.50	13d	1	1.21mi
37135 Grassy Hill Ln Unit 1234475P Dade City, FL	3.0	2.0	1205	$3,535	$2.93	2d	1	1.22mi
37135 Grassy Hill Ln Unit 1 Dade City, FL	3.0	2.0	1212	$3,500	$2.89	25d	1	1.22mi
37215 Grassy Hill Ln Dade City, FL	3.0	2.0	1212	$1,495	$1.23	25d	1	1.22mi
13917 2nd St Dade City, FL	3.0	1.0	1312	$1,950	$1.49	25d	1	1.23mi
37132 Grassy Hill Ln Unit 1234477P Dade City, FL	3.0	2.0	1205	$3,379	$2.80	0d	1	1.24mi
37132 Grassy Hill Ln Unit 1 Dade City, FL	3.0	2.0	1212	$3,500	$2.89	25d	1	1.24mi
37228 Grassy Hill Ln Unit 1 Dade City, FL	3.0	2.0	1212	$1,750	$1.44	3d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-05-09
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-14
   price $269,999
3. 2026-04-03
   price $280,000
4. 2026-02-20
   listed $289,000 Active
5. 2016-06-08
   soldstatus $145,900 Sold 603-char remark

   Show marketing remark (603 chars)

   MOVE-IN READY. NEW CONSTRUCTION. A beautiful home located in a quiet new subdivison. Open floor plan with a lot of shared living space. The kitchen includes a large pantry closet, breakfast nook and upgraded all-wood cabinetry. Spacious master bedroom with beautiful master bath that includes a large shower and walk-in closet. A Pasco County Neighborhood Stabilization Program (NSP) property and down payment assistance is available. Median income and program restrictions apply. Recapture if value of home exceeds sales price. Up to $25,000 in down payment assistance is available to qualified buyers.

6. 2016-03-17
   status Pending 603-char remark

   Show marketing remark (603 chars)

   MOVE-IN READY. NEW CONSTRUCTION. A beautiful home located in a quiet new subdivison. Open floor plan with a lot of shared living space. The kitchen includes a large pantry closet, breakfast nook and upgraded all-wood cabinetry. Spacious master bedroom with beautiful master bath that includes a large shower and walk-in closet. A Pasco County Neighborhood Stabilization Program (NSP) property and down payment assistance is available. Median income and program restrictions apply. Recapture if value of home exceeds sales price. Up to $25,000 in down payment assistance is available to qualified buyers.

7. 2015-07-20
   price $145,900 603-char remark

   Show marketing remark (603 chars)

   MOVE-IN READY. NEW CONSTRUCTION. A beautiful home located in a quiet new subdivison. Open floor plan with a lot of shared living space. The kitchen includes a large pantry closet, breakfast nook and upgraded all-wood cabinetry. Spacious master bedroom with beautiful master bath that includes a large shower and walk-in closet. A Pasco County Neighborhood Stabilization Program (NSP) property and down payment assistance is available. Median income and program restrictions apply. Recapture if value of home exceeds sales price. Up to $25,000 in down payment assistance is available to qualified buyers.

8. 2014-10-10
   listed $152,900 Active 603-char remark

   Show marketing remark (603 chars)

   MOVE-IN READY. NEW CONSTRUCTION. A beautiful home located in a quiet new subdivison. Open floor plan with a lot of shared living space. The kitchen includes a large pantry closet, breakfast nook and upgraded all-wood cabinetry. Spacious master bedroom with beautiful master bath that includes a large shower and walk-in closet. A Pasco County Neighborhood Stabilization Program (NSP) property and down payment assistance is available. Median income and program restrictions apply. Recapture if value of home exceeds sales price. Up to $25,000 in down payment assistance is available to qualified buyers.

9. 2013-12-18
   soldstatus $84,722
10. 2013-12-12
    soldstatus $16,776 102-char remark

    Show marketing remark (102 chars)

    BEAUTIFUL QUAINT HOMESITE LOCATED IN CITY LIMITS. DEED RESTRICTED COMMUNITY. ESTABLISHED NEIGHBORHOOD.

11. 2013-02-08
    listed $17,900 102-char remark

    Show marketing remark (102 chars)

    BEAUTIFUL QUAINT HOMESITE LOCATED IN CITY LIMITS. DEED RESTRICTED COMMUNITY. ESTABLISHED NEIGHBORHOOD.

12. 2013-02-07
    soldstatus $37,500
13. 2013-01-31
    soldstatus $37,500
14. 2012-09-11
    listed $37,500
15. 2012-09-11
    historical
16. 2010-04-01
    listed $50,000
17. 2006-10-19
    listed $245,900
18. 2006-10-05
    historical
19. 2006-06-02
    listed $249,900
20. 2006-06-02
    historical
21. 2006-03-29
    listed $249,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,993 · $249/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,993 · $249/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,301
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,124
• − Property taxes: −$2,993
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,104
• − Management: −$2,104
• − Depreciation: −$7,855
• Taxable loss: −$5,229
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,255
• After-tax cash flow: $699/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Dade City

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #307
• US rank: #5215

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dade City, FL
• City population: 21,077
• Population (ZIP): 19,296

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 28% Black 10% Two or more races 10% Native American 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.36%
• Current HPI: 448.7
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+8.0% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $269,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $280,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-20 Listed $289,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-06-08 Sold (MLS) $145,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-03-17 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-07-20 Price Changed $145,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-10-10 Listed $152,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-12-18 Sold (Public Records) $84,722 Public Records
• 2013-12-12 Sold (MLS) $16,776 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-02-08 Listed $17,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-02-07 Sold (Public Records) $37,500 Public Records
• 2013-01-31 Sold (MLS) $37,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-09-11 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-09-11 Listed $37,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-04-01 Listed $50,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-10-19 Listed $245,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-10-05 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-06-02 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-06-02 Listed $249,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-03-29 Listed $249,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+17.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,993 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.