2240 Golden Oak #88 · Merced, CA 95341

$69,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,322 sqft · Manufactured · 33 Days on market

Built 1976 Est $89k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Sierra Portal Mobile Estates, a desirable 55-or-better community in Merced. This spacious 2-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home offers approximately 1,322 sq. ft. of living space and a great opportunity for a buyer looking for value, comfort, and the chance to make it their own. The home features a functional floor plan with generous living and dining areas, built-in cabinetry, indoor laundry, covered parking, a covered/enclosed patio area, and a storage shed. The exterior offers nice curb appeal with mature landscaping, a covered carport, storage shed, and easy access around the home. With its affordable price point and potential for improvements, this property is ideal for a

Key facts

• Covered parking
• Indoor laundry
• Spacious clubhouse

Tags

• FUNCTIONAL FLOOR PLAN
• INDOOR LAUNDRY
• COVERED PARKING
• COVERED PATIO AREA
• MATURE LANDSCAPING
• SPACIOUS CLUBHOUSE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Park name: Sierra Portal Mobile Estates
• HOA & community: Senior community; Community amenities include dog park, sidewalks, and park; Land lease applies ($877 monthly)

Exterior

• Parking: Located in Sierra Portal Mobile Estates
• Security: Gated community with automatic gate; Card/code access
• Utilities: Public sewer; District/public water
• Home design: Single-story; Entry level 1; Mobile home remains
• Construction: Mobile home (110 ft by 12 ft)
• Exterior features: Back yard; Close to clubhouse; No pool listed

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Dishwasher; Electric water heater
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric furnace); Central electric cooling
• Interior features: Front entry; Card/code access; Carbon monoxide detector(s); Smoke detector; Gated community with automatic gate
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Has laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $68k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 27.7% vs local median 3.4% in Merced — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#153 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, cost of living F.
• Merced Union High (urban): math 20% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #301 of 517 in CA (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pioneer Elementary (1,126 students, 67% FRL); Weaver Middle (math 15% / reading 36%, grade F, #260 of 498 statewide, top 54%, 1,003 students, 64% FRL); Golden Valley High (math 20% / reading 46%, grade F, #667 of 1,170 statewide, top 57%, 1,956 students, 81% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 171 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 459 units permitted in Merced County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $483 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Merced County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.7% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $122/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AO (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $67,803 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 27.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 76.52%
• DSCR: 4.40
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $88,574
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2240 Golden Oak #94	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-6%)	2mo	$25,000	$20	87
2240 Golden Oak Ln #83	0.15mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,285 (-3%)	3mo	$106,900	$83	81
2240 Golden Oak Ln #147	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,230 (-7%)	3mo	$90,900	$74	80
2240 Golden Oak Ln #85	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,296 (-2%)	13mo	$95,000	$73	78
2240 Golden Oak Ln #138	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+9%)	9mo	$51,000	$35	75
2240 Golden Oak #155	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,200 (-9%)	16mo	$95,000	$79	68
2240 Golden Oak Ln #49	0.09mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (+9%)	17mo	$97,000	$67	62
2240 Golden Oak Ln #42	0.20mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+9%)	17mo	$79,000	$55	62
2240 Golden Oak Ln #76	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,464 (+11%)	21mo	$74,000	$51	60
1735 Santa Fe Ave	0.44mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (-6%)	12mo	$360,000	$288	55
2499 E Gerard Ave #50	0.75mi	2/2.0	1,200 (-9%)	3mo	$75,000	$63	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.68% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 67.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.95×
• Total profit: $57,679
• Equity at exit: $10,422

10-year hold

• IRR: 70.8%
• Equity multiple: 7.73×
• Total profit: $131,806
• Equity at exit: $6,044

Cash invested: $19,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95341

• Home prices YoY: -29.2%
• Rents YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 171
• Price-to-rent: 2.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,097 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$13 /mo · $159/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$122 /mo · $1,468/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$440
• Net cashflow: $1,126

Break-even live

Break-even rent $672

Max offer price $69,900

Occupancy floor 41%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,165	-5% $1,145	+0% $1,126	+5% $1,106	+10% $1,086
Rent	-10% $960	-5% $1,043	+0% $1,126	+5% $1,209	+10% $1,291
Rate	-1.0pp $1,161	-0.5pp $1,143	base $1,126	+0.5pp $1,108	+1.0pp $1,089

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,475
• Closing costs: $2,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1880 Barnett Way Merced, CA	3.0	2.0	1286	$1,975	$1.54	15d	1	0.58mi
2632 Story Ave Merced, CA	3.0	2.0	1286	$2,150	$1.67	15d	1	0.62mi
2210 Birchwood Ct Merced, CA	3.0	2.0	1377	$2,150	$1.56	15d	1	0.68mi
341 Brad Ct Merced, CA	3.0	2.0	1410	$2,275	$1.61	15d	1	1.06mi
405 Carly Anne Dr Merced, CA	3.0	2.0	1815	$1,995	$1.10	0d	1	1.07mi
2685 Agnes Way Merced, CA	3.0	2.0	1130	$1,845	$1.63	15d	1	1.08mi
2618 Hoover Ct Merced, CA	3.0	2.0	1220	$2,200	$1.80	15d	1	1.13mi
2340 Circle Dr Merced, CA	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,900	$1.52	15d	1	1.18mi
435 Petunia Ct Merced, CA	3.0	2.0	1654	$2,150	$1.30	0d	1	1.28mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $69,900 Active 33 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $69,900 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $69,900 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $69,900 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $69,900 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $69,900 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $69,900 Active 24 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $69,900 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $69,900 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $69,900 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $69,900 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $69,900 Active 16 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $69,900 Active 15 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $69,900 Active 14 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $69,900 Active 13 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $69,900 Active 12 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $69,900 Active 11 DOM
18. 2026-05-19
    listed $69,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $159 · $13/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $531 · $44/mo
• Expected delta: +$372/yr (+$31/mo · 233.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone AO · 51% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 38 unhealthy d/yr today · 40 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,169
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,915
• − Property taxes: −$159
• − Insurance: −$1,817
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,013
• − Management: −$2,013
• − Depreciation: −$2,033
• Taxable income: $13,216
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,172
• After-tax cash flow: $10,336/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Merced Union High
• NCES district ID: 0624660
• Math proficiency: 20% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,977
• Composite: 28.11/100
• National rank: #6823
• State rank: #301 of 517 in CA

Livability — Merced

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #153
• US rank: #5111

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Merced, CA
• County: Merced County · 205,386 people
• City population: 112,228
• Metro: Merced, CA
• Population (ZIP): 36,385
• Household income: $57,342
• Rent vs Own: 61.5% rent · 38.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1419.0

Population outlook (Merced County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 285,501 people
• By 2030: 293,437 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 308,808 · +8.2%
• By 2050: 321,011 · +12.4%
• By 2075: 338,497 · +18.6%
• By 2100: 330,493 · +15.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 73% White 12% Two or more races 11% Asian 8% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 70%
• Common ancestry: Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada
• Languages at home: 37% English-only · Spanish 55% Other Asian/Pacific 6% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Merced

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.5% · R 50.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 8.3pp · 2024: -4.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.4 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+7.9 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -129.65%
• Current HPI: 314.4223
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• Metro: Merced, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $69,900 CRMLS

Property tax history

-1.6%/yr

Latest (2020): $159 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.