9438 Roan Creek Rd · Mountain City, TN 37640

$140,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 560 sqft · SingleFamily · 27 Days on market

Built 2024 Fair condition 1.23 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.9/30.0
• DSCR +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Appreciation +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks

Small home with a second small home not quite finished. Great Location near Watauga Lake. 1.23 acres of land with easy access. Property fronts on Roan Creek. Good fishing. Well on property. Great Get Away Home.

Key facts

• Roan creek
• Watauga lake
• Well on property

Tags

• WATAUGA LAKE
• 1.23 ACRES
• ROAN CREEK
• WELL ON PROPERTY

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Shared well water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Cabin-style single family residence
• Construction: Wood siding construction
• Exterior features: Metal roof; Bottom land and sloped topography; Approximately 1.23 acres

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Fireplace(s); No central cooling
• Interior features: Total of 2 rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $321 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $138k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 2.1% in Mountain City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#191 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: housing C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Johnson County (rural): math 27% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #69 of 139 in TN (top 50%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Roan Creek Elementary (math 32% / reading 27%, grade F, #423 of 952 statewide, top 48%, 345 students, 0% FRL); Johnson Co Middle School (math 28% / reading 31%, grade F, #107 of 333 statewide, top 33%, 284 students, 0% FRL); Johnson Co High School (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #129 of 332 statewide, top 43%, 643 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 59% district-wide (59 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 207 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnson County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($138k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $137,900 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.87%
• DSCR: 1.53
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-2,153
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.63×
• Total profit: $24,749
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37640

• Home prices YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 207
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,716 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$175 /mo · $2,100/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$360
• Net cashflow: $321

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,309

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-09
   status $140,000 Pending 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $140,000 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $140,000 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $140,000 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $140,000 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $140,000 Active 19 DOM
7. 2026-05-30
   days on market $140,000 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-05-12
   listed $140,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥92°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,587
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$2,100
• − Insurance: −$1,498
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,647
• − Management: −$1,647
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable income: $1,781
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$427
• After-tax cash flow: $3,429/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

The home is in fair condition with moderate repairs and maintenance needed. It has a good roof and foundation, but the interior and exterior need cleaning and maintenance. The home is located near Watauga Lake, which could be a selling point for potential buyers and renters.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Kitchen clutter — Appliances and items are scattered throughout the kitchen.
• Minor Bathroom clutter — Bathroom appears cluttered with items on the counter.
• Moderate Exterior siding maintenance — Exterior siding appears weathered and in need of maintenance.
• Minor Interior cleaning — Interior walls are cluttered with items and appear to need cleaning.
• Moderate Landscaping maintenance — Landscaping is sparse and in need of maintenance.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Clean and organize kitchen and bathroom — A clean and organized kitchen and bathroom will attract potential buyers and renters.
• Both Paint exterior siding — Painting the exterior siding will improve the curb appeal and increase the home's value.
• Both Landscaping and yard maintenance — A well-maintained yard and landscaping will enhance the home's curb appeal and attract potential buyers and renters.
• Both HVAC maintenance — Maintaining the HVAC system will ensure the home is comfortable and energy-efficient, which is important for both buyers and renters.
• Both Interior cleaning and decluttering — A clean and decluttered interior will make the home more appealing and easier to move into, which is important for both buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen clutter · Appliances and items are scattered throughout the kitchen.	Minor	$500–3,000
Bathroom clutter · Bathroom appears cluttered with items on the counter.	Minor	$500–3,000
Exterior siding maintenance · Exterior siding appears weathered and in need of maintenance.	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Interior cleaning · Interior walls are cluttered with items and appear to need cleaning.	Minor	$500–3,000
Landscaping maintenance · Landscaping is sparse and in need of maintenance.	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$7,500–39,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Clean and organize kitchen and bathroom — A clean and organized kitchen and bathroom will attract potential buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Paint exterior siding — Painting the exterior siding will improve the curb appeal and increase the home's value. ↑
• Both Landscaping and yard maintenance — A well-maintained yard and landscaping will enhance the home's curb appeal and attract potential buyers and renters. ↑
• Both HVAC maintenance — Maintaining the HVAC system will ensure the home is comfortable and energy-efficient, which is important for both buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Interior cleaning and decluttering — A clean and decluttered interior will make the home more appealing and easier to move into, which is important for both buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Johnson County
• NCES district ID: 4702160
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $31,298
• Composite: 23.58/100
• National rank: #7852
• State rank: #69 of 139 in TN

Livability — Mountain City

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #191
• US rank: #15252

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing C- Health & safety C- User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,343

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 16,842 people
• By 2030: 16,158 · -4.1%
• By 2040: 14,682 · -12.8%
• By 2050: 13,306 · -21.0%
• By 2075: 11,087 · -34.2%
• By 2100: 9,360 · -44.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 5% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+69.3) · D 15.0% · R 84.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.1pp toward R · 2008: -42.2pp · 2024: -69.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+69.3 2020: R+66.9 2016: R+67.3 2012: R+50.5 2008: R+42.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.70%
• Current HPI: 376.3439
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $140,000 TVRMLS