3158 Bunny Run Dr · North Fort Myers, FL 33917

$139,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 862 sqft · Manufactured public records · 92 Days on market

Built 1989 4,530 sqft lot Est $98k · 42% over $127/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.1/30.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The completely renovated manufactured home is in the highly desirable 55+ community of Lake Arrowhead where you own the land and extremely low monthly fee. New luxury vinyl plank floors, renovated kitchen with new appliances, new cabinets, quartz countertop, new washer & dryer, renovated bathrooms with new bathtub, new low E windows, new double entry front door, new lanai screen etc. New roof in 2023, new a/c and hot water heater in 2022. The community amenities are outstanding, offering something for everyone. Enjoy recreation options such as billiards, a bocce court, and shuffleboard. Water enthusiasts will appreciate the boat storage and fishing pier. The community clubhouse serves

Key facts

• Quartz countertop
• New lanai screen
• Community amenities

Tags

• RENOVATED KITCHEN
• NEW APPLIANCES
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOP
• NEW LOW E WINDOWS
• NEW LANAI SCREEN
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Part of a multi-unit park with 351 units; single-unit building on one floor
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; HOA fee $127.50 monthly (total annual recurring fees $1,536); Professional management; HOA covers street maintenance and trash removal; Community amenities: billiards, bocce court, clubhouse, community pool, community room, community spa/hot tub, exercise room, internet access, sidewalks, streetlights; Non-gated community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-space carport
• Utilities: Central water; Central sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Manufactured residential home; 1 story / ranch; Rear exposure: East; Built in 1989; Development: LAKE ARROWHEAD MOB VILLAGE
• Construction: Manufactured construction
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Vinyl siding exterior; Single-hung windows; Storm protection (see remarks); Landscaped area view; Regular lot; deeded

Interior

• Kitchen: Pantry; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator/Icemaker; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bath with combo tub and shower
• Heating & cooling: Central electric cooling; Heating: see remarks
• Interior features: Cable prewire; Vaulted ceiling; Window coverings; Pantry; Formal dining area; Screened lanai/porch; Laundry in residence; Furnished
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry in residence

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $278 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $127k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 3.6% in North Fort Myers — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#269 in FL, #4,409 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 841 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($55k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 92 days — a 9% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $140k implies a 75% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,309 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 92 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.50%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $98,268
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3541 Celestial Way	0.66mi	2/2.0	864 (+0%)	7mo	$50,000	$58	63
974 Restful Rd	0.74mi	2/2.0	960 (+11%)	3mo	$109,575	$114	44
16041 Citron Way	0.70mi	2/2.0	960 (+11%)	6mo	$92,000	$96	43
16034 Citron Way	0.69mi	2/2.0	960 (+11%)	7mo	$125,000	$130	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.63% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-5,550
• Equity at exit: $20,860

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.40×
• Total profit: $15,647
• Equity at exit: $12,096

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33917

• Home prices YoY: -30.2%
• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 841
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,564 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$39 /mo · $466/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$127
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$328
• Net cashflow: $278

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,212

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2774 Wedgewood Dr North Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	880	$1,300	$1.48	23d	1	0.44mi
4120 Pine Drop Ln North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	957	$1,895	$1.98	23d	1	0.62mi
3404 Rainbow Ln North Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,800	$1.70	3d	1	0.68mi
2095 Eloise Cir North Fort Myers, FL	2.0	1.0	840	$1,295	$1.54	23d	1	0.74mi
2027 Eloise Cir North Fort Myers, FL	2.0	1.0	822	$1,300	$1.58	3d	1	0.78mi
28 Nyborg Ave North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1042	$1,299	$1.25	14d	1	0.91mi
3953 Pomodoro Cir Cape Coral, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1044	$1,462	$1.40	14d	9	0.97mi
16363 Teresa Ln North Fort Myers, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,000	$1.00	23d	1	1.09mi
3940 Villa Del Mar CIR Cape Coral, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1051	$2,116	$2.01	1d	21	1.10mi
8791 Littleton Rd North Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1074	$1,549	$1.44	23d	1	1.24mi
8086 Heck Dr Unit 6 North Fort Myers, FL	2.0	1.0	600	$800	$1.33	23d	1	1.40mi
571 Sunrise Ln North Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1004	$1,400	$1.39	23d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $127 · $1,524/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $139,900 Active 92 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $139,900 Active 91 DOM
3. 2026-03-01
   listed $139,900 Active
4. 2025-10-18
   historical $1,350
5. 2025-10-08
   listed $1,350
6. 2025-09-09
   historical
7. 2025-08-04
   listed $134,900 Active
8. 2025-07-31
   historical
9. 2025-06-14
   price $144,900
10. 2025-04-18
    listed $149,900 Active
11. 2025-01-15
    soldstatus $80,000 Sold
12. 2025-01-15
    soldstatus $80,000
13. 2024-12-28
    status Pending
14. 2024-12-17
    listed $99,900 Active
15. 2024-12-11
    historical
16. 2024-11-18
    price $99,000
17. 2024-10-23
    listed $139,000 Active
18. 2024-10-21
    historical
19. 2024-06-26
    price $140,000
20. 2024-04-24
    listed $150,000 Active
21. 2018-12-19
    soldstatus $71,000
22. 2018-10-24
    soldstatus $70,920 Sold
23. 2018-10-04
    status Pending With Contingencies
24. 2018-07-26
    listed $72,000 Active
25. 2018-06-30
    historical
26. 2018-04-11
    listed $72,000 Active
27. 1996-06-18
    soldstatus $48,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $466 · $39/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,161 · $97/mo
• Expected delta: +$695/yr (+$58/mo · 149.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,766
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$466
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,501
• − Management: −$1,501
• − HOA: −$1,524
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable income: $1,167
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$280
• After-tax cash flow: $3,051/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — North Fort Myers

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #269
• US rank: #4409

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Fort Myers, FL
• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• City population: 57,035
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,380
• Household income: $55,000
• Rent vs Own: 16.3% rent · 83.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 775.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -122.28%
• Current HPI: 282.2895
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.63%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+188.5% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-01 Listed $139,900 NAPLESMLS
• 2025-10-18 Rental Removed $1,350 NAPLESMLS
• 2025-10-08 Listed for Rent $1,350 NAPLESMLS
• 2025-09-09 Listing Removed — NAPLESMLS
• 2025-08-04 Listed $134,900 NAPLESMLS
• 2025-07-31 Listing Removed — NAPLESMLS
• 2025-06-14 Price Changed $144,900 NAPLESMLS
• 2025-04-18 Listed $149,900 NAPLESMLS
• 2025-01-15 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 2025-01-15 Sold (MLS) $80,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2024-12-28 Pending — NAPLESMLS
• 2024-12-17 Listed $99,900 NAPLESMLS
• 2024-12-11 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2024-11-18 Price Changed $99,000 FORTMLS
• 2024-10-23 Listed $139,000 FORTMLS
• 2024-10-21 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2024-06-26 Price Changed $140,000 FORTMLS
• 2024-04-24 Listed $150,000 FORTMLS
• 2018-12-19 Sold (Public Records) $71,000 Public Records
• 2018-10-24 Sold (MLS) $70,920 FORTMLS
• 2018-10-04 Pending — FORTMLS
• 2018-07-26 Listed $72,000 FORTMLS
• 2018-06-30 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2018-04-11 Listed $72,000 FORTMLS
• 1996-06-18 Sold (Public Records) $48,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $466 · +2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.