1127 Christmas Point Dr · Bacliff, TX 77518

$180,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,478 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 182 Days on market

Built 2001 5,000 sqft lot $122/sqft · 15% below area Est $212k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.2/30.0
• ARV discount +14.3/15.0
• DSCR +8.9/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

4 bedrooms and 3 baths on quiet street. Close to the bay and easy access to HWY 146. This is an Estate Sale. Sold as is. Probate is in process.

Key facts

• 5,000 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 2001

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $393 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• Recommended offer: $158k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 5.0% in Bacliff — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,252 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime D, schools F.
• Dickinson ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #366 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 62 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,251/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($51k/yr) (locally 672% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 182 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $158,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 182 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.94%
• DSCR: 1.49
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $212,190
• List price: $180,000
• Delta: -15.17%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5114 Chasewood Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,480 (+0%)	2mo	$235,000	$159	82
5427 Chasewood Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,480 (+0%)	11mo	$236,000	$159	77
1146 Chase Park Dr	0.02mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,443 (-2%)	20mo	$239,900	$166	69
5106 Chase Park Gate St	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,379 (-7%)	7mo	$239,900	$174	66
4823 Caranchua Reef Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,378 (-7%)	13mo	$185,000	$134	65
5118 Chase Park Gate St	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,550 (+5%)	20mo	$235,000	$152	58
4806 Moody Reef Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,321 (-11%)	16mo	$185,000	$140	55
4910 Chase Wick Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,593 (+8%)	13mo	$259,000	$163	50
4835 Chase More Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,604 (+8%)	4mo	$249,000	$155	49
731 Chase View Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,379 (-7%)	12mo	$235,000	$170	49
5010 Chase Court Dr	0.39mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,262 (-15%)	10mo	$225,000	$178	42
710 Chase View Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,670 (+13%)	13mo	$255,000	$153	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-4,010
• Equity at exit: $26,839

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.58×
• Total profit: $29,238
• Equity at exit: $15,563

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77518

• Home prices YoY: -7.6%
• Active inventory: 62
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,251 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax from tax record: −$300 /mo · $3,601/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$473
• Net cashflow: $393

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,754

Max offer price $180,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $495	-5% $444	+0% $393	+5% $342	+10% $291
Rent	-10% $215	-5% $304	+0% $393	+5% $482	+10% $571
Rate	-1.0pp $484	-0.5pp $439	base $393	+0.5pp $346	+1.0pp $299

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1118 Chase Park Dr Bacliff, TX	3.0	2.0	1854	$2,086	$1.13	5d	1	0.08mi
339 Sea Breeze Dr Bacliff, TX	3.0	2.5	1456	$1,985	$1.36	4d	1	1.18mi
5139 Misty Ln Bacliff, TX	3.0	2.0	1794	$1,970	$1.10	10d	1	1.27mi
5223 Gulf Stream Ln Bacliff, TX	3.0	2.5	1778	$2,080	$1.17	10d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $180,000 Active 182 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $180,000 Active 181 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $180,000 Active 180 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $180,000 Active 179 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $180,000 Active 177 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $180,000 Active 173 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $180,000 Active 172 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $180,000 Active 171 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $180,000 Active 168 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $180,000 Active 167 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $180,000 Active 166 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $180,000 Active 165 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $180,000 Active 164 DOM
14. 2025-12-18
    listed $180,000 Active 145-char remark

    Show marketing remark (145 chars)

    4 bedrooms and 3 baths on quiet street. Close to the bay and easy access to HWY 146. This is an Estate Sale. Sold as is. Probate is in process.

15. 2018-12-07
    soldstatus Sold 226-char remark

    Show marketing remark (226 chars)

    READY FOR A REMODEL? GREAT POTENTIAL WITH THIS 3 BEDROOM 3 BATH HOME LOCATED IN THE BACLIFF VILLAS OF BAYCLIFF. FEATURES INCLUDE LIVING ROOM, KITCHEN WITH ADJACENT DINING AREA, PRIVATE BACKYARD AND DOWNSTAIRS MASTER BEDROOM.

16. 2018-10-30
    status Pending 226-char remark

    Show marketing remark (226 chars)

    READY FOR A REMODEL? GREAT POTENTIAL WITH THIS 3 BEDROOM 3 BATH HOME LOCATED IN THE BACLIFF VILLAS OF BAYCLIFF. FEATURES INCLUDE LIVING ROOM, KITCHEN WITH ADJACENT DINING AREA, PRIVATE BACKYARD AND DOWNSTAIRS MASTER BEDROOM.

17. 2018-10-22
    listed $106,600 Active 226-char remark

    Show marketing remark (226 chars)

    READY FOR A REMODEL? GREAT POTENTIAL WITH THIS 3 BEDROOM 3 BATH HOME LOCATED IN THE BACLIFF VILLAS OF BAYCLIFF. FEATURES INCLUDE LIVING ROOM, KITCHEN WITH ADJACENT DINING AREA, PRIVATE BACKYARD AND DOWNSTAIRS MASTER BEDROOM.

18. 2015-12-18
    historical
19. 2015-12-18
    soldstatus
20. 2015-12-17
    soldstatus Sold
21. 2015-09-21
    status Pending
22. 2015-09-13
    status Option Pending
23. 2015-09-01
    listed $130,000 Active
24. 2009-02-24
    soldstatus
25. 2008-10-11
    historical
26. 2008-07-11
    listed $100,000
27. 2008-07-11
    historical
28. 2008-05-17
    listed $105,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,601 · $300/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,601 · $300/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 95% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,016
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$3,601
• − Insurance: −$1,697
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,161
• − Management: −$2,161
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable income: $2,076
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$498
• After-tax cash flow: $4,219/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dickinson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817070
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $61,318
• Composite: 35.16/100
• National rank: #5005
• State rank: #366 of 826 in TX

Livability — Bacliff

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1252
• US rank: #21864

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bacliff, TX
• County: Galveston County · 357,330 people
• City population: 9,541
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,541
• Household income: $51,458
• Rent vs Own: 38.2% rent · 61.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 672.0

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 43% Two or more races 21% Black 7% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 32% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.15%
• Current HPI: 293.2677
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+71.4% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-18 Listed $180,000 HARMLS
• 2018-12-07 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2018-10-30 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-10-22 Listed $106,600 HARMLS
• 2015-12-18 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2015-12-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-12-17 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2015-09-21 Pending — HARMLS
• 2015-09-13 Pending — HARMLS
• 2015-09-01 Listed $130,000 HARMLS
• 2009-02-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2008-10-11 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2008-07-11 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2008-07-11 Listed $100,000 HARMLS
• 2008-05-17 Listed $105,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,601 · +12.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.