11 Hummingbird Rd #6 · Lincoln, NH 03251

$335,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,064 sqft · Condo public records · 64 Days on market

Built 1990 $316/sqft · 9% above area Est $309k · 9% over $385/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• Appreciation +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• ARV discount +3.6/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom condo located on the top floor in the Mansion Hill Condominium community. Single floor living that connects to a spacious deck. This space comes fully furnished perfect for move in ready, sold in as-is condition. New windows installed in 2023, wood floors in living/dining room, updated carpet in both bedrooms in 2019, chimney up to date with new pipe installed in 2024 and SimpliSafe Alarm System included. Condominium fees include cable, wifi, water and sewer.

Key facts

• Updated carpet
• Wood floors
• Spacious deck

Tags

• TOP FLOOR
• SPACIOUS DECK
• FULLY FURNISHED
• NEW WINDOWS
• WOOD FLOORS
• UPDATED CARPET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $336k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $10k ($123k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($16k rent vs $336k).
• Recommended offer: $316k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 42.9% vs local median 4.9% in Lincoln — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#57 in NH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A-, housing A-; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Lincoln-Woodstock School District (rural): math 40% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #140 of 171 in NH (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 114 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 487 units permitted in Grafton County in 2024 (127 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (2.2% local appreciation)).
• Grafton County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $94k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($316k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $315,746 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.79% ✓
• Cap rate: 42.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 130.63%
• DSCR: 6.81
• GRM: 1.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $309,353
• List price: $335,900
• Delta: 8.58%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

2.19% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 8.22×
• Total profit: $678,784
• Equity at exit: $136,054

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 17.17×
• Total profit: $1,521,163
• Equity at exit: $198,698

Cash invested: $94,052 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 56 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Hampshire: 56 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+1
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Has just-cause statute; 30-day notice; landlord-leaning vs. neighbors.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 03251

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 114
• Price-to-rent: 1.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $16,076 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,761
• Tax from tax record: −$176 /mo · $2,108/yr
• Insurance: −$140
• HOA: −$385
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,376
• Net cashflow: $10,238

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,117

Max offer price $335,900

Occupancy floor 31%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $83,975
• Closing costs: $10,077
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
48 Cooper Memorial Dr #203 Lincoln, NH	1.0	2.0	800	$1,600	$2.00	44d	1	0.83mi
51 Pollard Rd Unit 4 Lincoln, NH	2.0	2.0	1000	$2,250	$2.25	44d	1	0.86mi
51 Pollard Rd Lincoln, NH	2.0	2.0	1000	$15,000	$15.00	44d	1	0.86mi
15 Winter Way #4 Lincoln, NH	3.0	2.5	1443	$18,000	$12.47	44d	1	1.21mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $385 · $4,620/yr
• Likely covers: watersewerinternetcable
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $335,900 Active 64 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $335,900 Active 63 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $335,900 Active 62 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $335,900 Active 61 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $335,900 Active 59 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $335,900 Active 58 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $335,900 Active 55 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $335,900 Active 54 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $335,900 Active 53 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $335,900 Active 52 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $335,900 Active 49 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $335,900 Active 48 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $335,900 Active 47 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $335,900 Active 46 DOM
15. 2026-04-15
    listed $335,900 Active 494-char remark

    Show marketing remark (494 chars)

    Charming 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom condo located on the top floor in the Mansion Hill Condominium community. Single floor living that connects to a spacious deck. This space comes fully furnished perfect for move in ready, sold in as-is condition. New windows installed in 2023, wood floors in living/dining room, updated carpet in both bedrooms in 2019, chimney up to date with new pipe installed in 2024 and SimpliSafe Alarm System included. Condominium fees include cable, wifi, water and sewer.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,108 · $176/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,715 · $393/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,607/yr (+$217/mo · 123.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $192,915
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,816
• − Property taxes: −$2,108
• − Insurance: −$1,680
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$15,433
• − Management: −$15,433
• − HOA: −$4,620
• − Depreciation: −$9,772
• Taxable income: $125,054
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$30,013
• After-tax cash flow: $92,845/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lincoln-Woodstock School District
• NCES district ID: 3304260
• Math proficiency: 40% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,324
• Composite: 36.47/100
• National rank: #9328
• State rank: #140 of 171 in NH

Livability — Lincoln

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #57
• US rank: #9736

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A- Health & safety C- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lincoln, NH
• Population (ZIP): 1,484

Population outlook (Grafton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 88,798 people
• By 2030: 87,131 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 82,000 · -7.7%
• By 2050: 77,064 · -13.2%
• By 2075: 68,769 · -22.6%
• By 2100: 61,631 · -30.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Asian 12% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 12% Slovak 6% Russian 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Chinese 10% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Grafton

• 2024 margin: D (+19.9) · D 59.4% · R 39.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.8pp toward R · 2008: 27.7pp · 2024: 19.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.9 2020: D+24.6 2016: D+19.0 2012: D+23.8 2008: D+27.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.19%
• Current HPI: 531.2395
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Listed $335,900 PrimeMLS

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,108 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.