11241 Dollar Lake Dr #4 · Bayonet Point, FL 34668

$130,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,210 sqft · Condo public records · 90 Days on market

Built 1980 $635/mo HOA · 37% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.6/30.0
• 1% rule +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Timber Oaks Villa - Spacious 1386 sq ft, 2 bedroom, 2 bath, split bedroom plan, eat-in kitchen, inside utility room, glass enclosed lanai, walk to the pool. Enjoy Timber Oaks Clubhouse, heated pool & spa, recreation, close to all conveniences!

Key facts

• Custom cabinetry
• Bay window
• Eat-in kitchen

Tags

• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• BAY WINDOW
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• CUSTOM CABINETRY
• MODERN BACKSPLASH TILEWORK
• UPDATED FLOORING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions: Little Rd north to Timber Oaks Ave, left to Dollar Lake Dr, left to property
• Financial info: Total monthly fees (all associations) $635; total annual fees $7,620; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Monthly condo fee of $585; Association management: Elite Prop Mgmt / Wendy Greenaway; Secondary association: Timber Oaks ($50 monthly); Association amenities include clubhouse, pool, spa/hot tub, tennis and pickleball courts; Buyer approval required; Deed restrictions; Community mailbox; Senior community; Pets not allowed; Association fees include cable TV, internet, maintenance (structure & grounds), trash, water and escrow reserves

Exterior

• Parking: 1 carport space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity connected; Phone available; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Condominium; Residential property; One story; Faces northeast; Entry on first floor
• Construction: Block, concrete and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as part of a multi-unit building (building number 5)
• Exterior features: Rain gutters; Mature landscaping with trees

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Stone counters; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Hardwood; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (Electric, Heat Pump); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilings; Eat-in kitchen; Living room / dining room combo; Split bedroom floorplan; Stone countertops; Thermostat; Walk-in closet(s); Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry room; Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater; Water softener

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-87 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $115k (11.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $115k (11.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#485 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities D+, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Gulf Highlands Elementary School (math 29% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,862 of 2,144 statewide, top 88%, 714 students, 89% FRL); Bayonet Point Middle School (math 38% / reading 35%, grade F, #405 of 571 statewide, top 72%, 737 students, 84% FRL); Fivay High School (math 20% / reading 28%, grade F, #529 of 667 statewide, top 80%, 1,610 students, 78% FRL) — zoned schools average 84% FRL vs 48% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 30% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-21 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 582 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($47k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($122k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $52k; list at $130k implies a 150% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 37% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $114,580 (11.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.88%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.28% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-29,178
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.17×
• Total profit: $-42,652
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34668

• Home prices YoY: -17.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 582
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,711 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$68 /mo · $816/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$635
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$359
• Net cashflow: $-87

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,821

Max offer price $114,580

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-14	-5% $-50	+0% $-87	+5% $-124	+10% $-161
Rent	-10% $-222	-5% $-155	+0% $-87	+5% $-20	+10% $48
Rate	-1.0pp $-22	-0.5pp $-54	base $-87	+0.5pp $-121	+1.0pp $-155

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8161 Braddock Cir #1 Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,595	$1.59	19d	1	0.19mi
11138 Yellowwood Ln Unit NA Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,800	$1.80	26d	1	0.38mi
11635 Salmon Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.5	816	$1,500	$1.84	26d	1	0.46mi
11630 Paige Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,680	$1.46	14d	1	0.53mi
11611 Constance Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	984	$1,540	$1.57	13d	1	0.55mi
11611 Constance Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	984	$1,540	$1.57	26d	1	0.55mi
8024 Las Cruces Ct Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1371	$1,900	$1.39	26d	1	0.56mi
11610 Meadow Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1128	$1,570	$1.39	14d	1	0.56mi
7804 Topay Ln Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,795	$1.60	1d	1	0.58mi
11241 Yewtree Ave Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1306	$1,950	$1.49	25d	1	0.60mi
10816 Piccadilly Rd Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1408	$1,550	$1.10	14d	1	0.61mi
7724 Tyson Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,550	$1.29	1d	1	0.61mi
7924 Halsey Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1272	$1,800	$1.42	6d	1	0.64mi
7924 Halsey Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1272	$1,800	$1.42	23d	1	0.64mi
7705 Ilex Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1349	$2,000	$1.48	26d	1	0.66mi
7715 Sue Ellen Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1080	$1,495	$1.38	5d	1	0.67mi
10802 Laburnum Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1002	$1,545	$1.54	26d	1	0.68mi
10801 Oldham Rd Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1182	$1,500	$1.27	3d	1	0.68mi
12200 Hudson Ridge Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1107	$1,468	$1.33	4d	10	0.69mi
10632 Laburnum Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1193	$1,583	$1.33	26d	1	0.71mi
7540 Venice Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1394	$1,775	$1.27	6d	1	0.76mi
7608 Sue Ellen Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1310	$2,400	$1.83	26d	1	0.77mi
10905 Kingsbridge Rd Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1176	$1,566	$1.33	6d	1	0.77mi
7531 Greybirch Ter Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,000	$1.43	26d	1	0.78mi
7530 Judith Cres Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1446	$1,695	$1.17	22d	1	0.79mi
7530 Judith Cres Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1446	$2,200	$1.52	26d	1	0.79mi
7520 Hawthorn Dr Unit NA Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1303	$1,900	$1.46	26d	1	0.80mi
7520 Hawthorn Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1303	$1,800	$1.38	25d	1	0.80mi
8431 Duval Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1408	$1,731	$1.23	6d	1	0.81mi
7539 Gulf Highlands Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.5	936	$1,550	$1.66	6d	1	0.83mi
7808 Talisman Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1063	$2,100	$1.98	26d	1	0.85mi
10502 Laburnum Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1002	$1,545	$1.54	26d	1	0.86mi
7839 Canna Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1095	$1,450	$1.32	12d	1	0.87mi
10629 Cymbid Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,700	$1.21	26d	1	0.89mi
10331 Flagship Ave Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,000	$1.43	26d	1	0.93mi
12027 Hoosier Ct #203 Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1103	$1,550	$1.41	26d	1	1.00mi
10803 Hyssop St Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	1120	$1,500	$1.34	12d	1	1.01mi
7438 Coventry Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	985	$1,600	$1.62	14d	1	1.01mi
12041 Hoosier Ct #204 Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1103	$1,495	$1.36	26d	1	1.02mi
12041 Hoosier Ct #204 Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1103	$1,495	$1.36	19d	1	1.02mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $635 · $7,620/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $130,000 Active 90 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $130,000 Active 89 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $130,000 Active 88 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $130,000 Active 87 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $130,000 Active 85 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $130,000 Active 81 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $130,000 Active 80 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $130,000 Active 79 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $130,000 Active 76 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $130,000 Active 75 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $130,000 Active 74 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $130,000 Active 73 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $130,000 Active 72 DOM
14. 2026-05-04
    price $130,000
15. 2026-03-20
    listed $140,000 Active
16. 2025-12-03
    historical $1,599
17. 2025-12-03
    listed $1,599
18. 2025-04-01
    historical
19. 2025-02-20
    price $169,000
20. 2024-10-21
    price $179,900
21. 2024-09-18
    listed $185,000 Active
22. 2014-10-13
    soldstatus $51,900
23. 2014-10-09
    historical 249-char remark

    Show marketing remark (249 chars)

    Timber Oaks Villa - Spacious 1386 sq ft, 2 bedroom, 2 bath, split bedroom plan, eat-in kitchen, inside utility room, glass enclosed lanai, walk to the pool. Enjoy Timber Oaks Clubhouse, heated pool & spa, recreation, close to all conveniences!

24. 2014-10-09
    soldstatus $51,900 Sold 249-char remark

    Show marketing remark (249 chars)

    Timber Oaks Villa - Spacious 1386 sq ft, 2 bedroom, 2 bath, split bedroom plan, eat-in kitchen, inside utility room, glass enclosed lanai, walk to the pool. Enjoy Timber Oaks Clubhouse, heated pool & spa, recreation, close to all conveniences!

25. 2014-09-19
    listed $55,900 Active 249-char remark

    Show marketing remark (249 chars)

    Timber Oaks Villa - Spacious 1386 sq ft, 2 bedroom, 2 bath, split bedroom plan, eat-in kitchen, inside utility room, glass enclosed lanai, walk to the pool. Enjoy Timber Oaks Clubhouse, heated pool & spa, recreation, close to all conveniences!

26. 1999-08-03
    soldstatus $53,500
27. 1988-01-01
    soldstatus $55,000
28. 1981-02-01
    soldstatus $56,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $816 · $68/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,079 · $90/mo
• Expected delta: +$263/yr (+$22/mo · 32.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,530
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$816
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,642
• − Management: −$1,642
• − HOA: −$7,620
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable loss: −$2,904
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$697
• After-tax cash flow: $-351/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bayonet Point

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #485
• US rank: #8934

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bayonet Point, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 49,442
• Household income: $47,401
• Rent vs Own: 37.2% rent · 62.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2699.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 5% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -75.64%
• Current HPI: 359.7163
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.28%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+130.1% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $130,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-20 Listed $140,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-03 Rental Removed $1,599 RenterWarehouse
• 2025-12-03 Listed for Rent $1,599 RenterWarehouse
• 2025-04-01 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-20 Price Changed $169,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-21 Price Changed $179,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-18 Listed $185,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-10-13 Sold (Public Records) $51,900 Public Records
• 2014-10-09 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-10-09 Sold (MLS) $51,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-09-19 Listed $55,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-08-03 Sold (Public Records) $53,500 Public Records
• 1988-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 1981-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $56,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $816 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.