10131 Jim Tom Cir S · Semmes, AL 36587

$162,173

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,014 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1999 0.69 ac lot Est $175k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.3/30.0
• ARV discount +10.9/15.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

VALUE RANGE MARKETING: Seller will consider offers between $162,000–$173,000. Move-in ready 3-bedroom home on nearly ¾ acre with fenced backyard in Wilmer! If you're looking for space, updates, and affordability, this charming 3-bedroom, 1.5 bath home checks all the boxes—perfect for first-time buyers, downsizers, or anyone wanting land and privacy outside the city hustle. Recent improvements include a NEW HVAC system, NEW ductwork, NEW luxury vinyl plank flooring, and fresh interior paint, giving buyers confidence and comfort from day one. The updated kitchen cabinets offer great storage, and the eat-in kitchen opens into the living area, creating a welcoming layout tha

Key facts

• New ductwork
• Eat-in kitchen
• Fresh interior paint

Tags

• FENCED BACKYARD
• NEW HVAC SYSTEM
• NEW DUCTWORK
• FRESH INTERIOR PAINT
• UPDATED KITCHEN CABINETS
• EAT-IN KITCHEN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: Lott Road Acres
• Financial info: No additional financial details provided
• HOA & community: No land lease

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Security: No specific security features provided
• Utilities: Electricity available (110V and 220V); Natural gas available; Water available; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Built in 1999
• Construction: Brick 4 sides construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Back yard fence; Exterior lighting; View available

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: No flooring details provided
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Fireplace: none; Eat-in kitchen with laminate counters; Lighting (exterior lighting noted under exterior)
• Laundry & utility: No specific laundry details provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $162k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $368 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $162k).
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 5.3% in Semmes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#311 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Mobile County (urban): math 15% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #81 of 129 in AL (top 63%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: J E Turner Elementary (math 16% / reading 50%, grade F, #323 of 627 statewide, top 52%, 532 students, 60% FRL); Mary G Montgomery High School (math 13% / reading 18%, grade F, #211 of 305 statewide, top 69%, 1,965 students, 53% FRL).
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 1,678 units permitted in Mobile County in 2024 (264 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mobile County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $162,173

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.73%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $175,422
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10131 Jim Tom Cir S	0.00mi	3/1.5	1,014 (0%)	1mo	$175,000	$173	99
7855 Mary Turner Rd	0.62mi	2/2.0 (-1)	960 (-5%)	23mo	$95,000	$99	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-2,913
• Equity at exit: $24,181

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.60×
• Total profit: $27,330
• Equity at exit: $14,022

Cash invested: $45,408 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36587

• Home prices YoY: -8.0%
• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,669 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$850
• Tax from tax record: −$32 /mo · $390/yr
• Insurance: −$68
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$351
• Net cashflow: $368

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,203

Max offer price $162,173

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $460	-5% $414	+0% $368	+5% $322	+10% $276
Rent	-10% $236	-5% $302	+0% $368	+5% $434	+10% $500
Rate	-1.0pp $450	-0.5pp $409	base $368	+0.5pp $326	+1.0pp $283

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,543
• Closing costs: $4,865
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-30
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-16
   listed $162,173 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $390 · $32/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $665 · $55/mo
• Expected delta: +$275/yr (+$23/mo · 70.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,030
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,084
• − Property taxes: −$390
• − Insurance: −$811
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,602
• − Management: −$1,602
• − Depreciation: −$4,718
• Taxable income: $1,822
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$437
• After-tax cash flow: $3,980/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mobile County
• NCES district ID: 0102370
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $42,455
• Composite: 22.9/100
• National rank: #8002
• State rank: #81 of 129 in AL

Livability — Semmes

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #311
• US rank: #19360

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,039

Population outlook (Mobile County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 415,303 people
• By 2030: 411,755 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 399,670 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 382,616 · -7.9%
• By 2075: 337,353 · -18.8%
• By 2100: 283,391 · -31.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 3% Black 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Slovak 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Mobile

• 2024 margin: R (+16.4) · D 41.3% · R 57.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -8.7pp · 2024: -16.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.4 2020: R+11.9 2016: R+13.9 2012: R+9.3 2008: R+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.70%
• Current HPI: 282.5522
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Pending — GCMLS AL
• 2026-04-16 Listed $162,173 GCMLS AL