5132 Thackeray Dr · Hope Mills, NC 28306

$208,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,079 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1999 Est $213k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• ARV discount +8.5/15.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome! This beautifully updated 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers comfort and style throughout. Enjoy upgraded bathrooms featuring custom tiled showers, LVP flooring in the main living areas, and cozy carpet in the guest bedrooms. The kitchen comes equipped with stainless steel appliances. Bright living spaces filled with natural light from the large windows, and ceiling fans installed provide year round comfort. Step outside to a spacious fenced backyard complete with a pool, gazebo and plenty of outdoor space to enjoy, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Additional features include a 1-car garage with laundry hookups. Schedule your showing today and see for yourself all the beautiful upgr

Key facts

• Garage
• Pool
• Built 1999

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Green/energy-efficient appliances

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 covered space, 1 garage space)
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; 220 volt electric service
• Home design: Residential single-family home; Located in the Saddle Ridge subdivision; Zoned R10 (Residential District)
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Private yard; Patio (covered); Porch; Fenced with privacy fencing; Above-ground outdoor pool; Cleared, level lot; Paved public-maintained road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Range; Disposal; Exhaust fan; Energy Star qualified appliances; Water heater
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 5
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Ceiling fan cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Pantry; See remarks; Walk-in closets; Factory-built fireplace in the living room; Unfurnished
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $208k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-6 ($-70/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $207k (0.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $166k (20.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $166k (20.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.8% in Hope Mills — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#234 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Cumberland County Schools (urban): math 32% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #126 of 178 in NC (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Douglas Byrd Middle (math 13% / reading 30%, grade F, #422 of 475 statewide, top 89%, 935 students, 100% FRL); Douglas Byrd High (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #445 of 535 statewide, top 84%, 940 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 55% district-wide (45 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 401 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,125 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $104k; list at $208k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $165,652 (20.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.12%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $212,563
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3035 Walesby Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,074 (-0%)	16mo	$192,500	$179	81
5235 Thackeray Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,044 (-3%)	18mo	$220,000	$211	72
1415 Oldstead Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,162 (+8%)	8mo	$230,000	$198	65
1424 Middlesbrough Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,210 (+12%)	6mo	$245,000	$202	61
1054 Coalport Rd	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,134 (+5%)	0mo	$214,900	$190	59
3621 Camden rd Ext	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,090 (+1%)	14mo	$209,000	$192	58
2613 Cameron Woods Ln	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,091 (+1%)	10mo	$215,000	$197	58
2228 Cliff Swallow Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,101 (+2%)	12mo	$230,000	$209	57
1454 Mingary Ave	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,217 (+13%)	9mo	$225,000	$185	50
2625 Cameron Woods Ln	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,195 (+11%)	2mo	$210,000	$176	47
2228 Chasewater Rd	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,230 (+14%)	6mo	$245,000	$199	43
3434 Winesap Rd	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,231 (+14%)	5mo	$207,000	$168	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-37,557
• Equity at exit: $31,013

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-46,877
• Equity at exit: $17,984

Cash invested: $58,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28306

• Home prices YoY: -17.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 401
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,657 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,091
• Tax from tax record: −$137 /mo · $1,645/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$348
• Net cashflow: $-6

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,664

Max offer price $206,966

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,000
• Closing costs: $6,240
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3038 Walesby Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1272	$1,650	$1.30	23d	1	0.15mi
1055 Winnall LN Hope Mills, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1132	$2,000	$1.77	13d	20	0.65mi
2207 Puffin Pl Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1214	$1,950	$1.61	13d	1	0.73mi
1209 Snowy Egret Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.5	1470	$1,800	$1.22	23d	1	0.74mi
2621 Elcone Dr Unit 2621 Fayetteville, NC	2.0	1.5	815	$999	$1.23	13d	1	1.01mi
2524 Penny Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1330	$1,400	$1.05	23d	1	1.08mi
3100 Winesap Rd Hope Mills, NC	3.0	2.0	1082	$1,495	$1.38	13d	1	1.08mi
5532 Robmont Dr Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.0	1301	$1,800	$1.38	13d	1	1.18mi
2579 Gotts Ln Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,295	$1.08	21d	1	1.22mi
2690 Belhaven Rd Fayetteville, NC	3.0	1.0	1264	$1,350	$1.07	23d	1	1.25mi
614 Drypoint Ln Apt B Hope Mills, NC	2.0	2.0	900	$1,050	$1.17	23d	1	1.26mi
5032 Shimmer Dr Fayetteville, NC	4.0	2.0	1473	$1,700	$1.15	13d	1	1.30mi
5032 Shimmer Dr Fayetteville, NC	4.0	2.0	1473	$1,750	$1.19	23d	1	1.30mi
4615 Cumberland Rd Fayetteville, NC	2.0	1.0	783	$825	$1.05	23d	1	1.32mi
3918 Donna St Fayetteville, NC	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,350	$1.35	23d	1	1.38mi
575 Countrytown Dr Hope Mills, NC	2.0	2.0	800	$1,325	$1.66	23d	1	1.46mi
1514 Aristo Pl Hope Mills, NC	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,050	$1.05	13d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-03
   statusdays on market $208,000 Pending 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $208,000 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $208,000 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $208,000 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $208,000 Active 2 DOM
6. 2026-05-29
   listed $208,000 Active
7. 2026-05-28
   historical $208,000
8. 2008-09-23
   soldstatus $104,000
9. 2006-09-14
   soldstatus $99,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,645 · $137/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,706 · $142/mo
• Expected delta: +$61/yr (+$5/mo · 3.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,878
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,651
• − Property taxes: −$1,645
• − Insurance: −$1,040
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,590
• − Management: −$1,590
• − Depreciation: −$6,051
• Taxable loss: −$3,689
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$885
• After-tax cash flow: $815/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cumberland County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700011
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,168
• Composite: 31.0/100
• National rank: #6096
• State rank: #126 of 178 in NC

Livability — Hope Mills

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #234
• US rank: #10761

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Cumberland County · 265,314 people
• City population: 39,196
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• Population (ZIP): 43,042
• Household income: $67,544
• Rent vs Own: 34.3% rent · 65.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1386.0

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 330,855 people
• By 2030: 333,523 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 335,583 · +1.4%
• By 2050: 335,325 · +1.4%
• By 2075: 342,853 · +3.6%
• By 2100: 340,698 · +3.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Black 33% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 8% Asian 4% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, South Korea, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: D (+13.4) · D 56.1% · R 42.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.3pp toward R · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 13.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.4 2020: D+16.6 2016: D+16.0 2012: D+19.7 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.69%
• Current HPI: 239.7281
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.90%
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+110.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $208,000 LPRMLS
• 2026-05-28 Coming Soon $208,000 LPRMLS
• 2008-09-23 Sold (Public Records) $104,000 Public Records
• 2006-09-14 Sold (Public Records) $99,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,645 · +41.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.