12637 Lakeview · Clearlake Oaks, CA 95423

$199,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,008 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 69 Days on market

Built 1963 5,227 sqft lot $197/sqft · 10% below area Est $221k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.1/30.0
• ARV discount +12.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover your serene escape in Clearlake Oaks, California, where this charming home sits nestled in a quiet and peaceful neighborhood. Offering the perfect blend of tranquility and convenience, this property boasts ample space for creating your own thriving garden oasis—a gardener's dream come true! Just minutes from the center of town, you can enjoy the quaint community vibe while having easy access to shopping, dining, and recreational activities. The property's location ensures you're never far from the vibrant life of Clearlake Oaks yet enveloped by a sense of calm. Step inside to find a home filled with warm natural light that highlights its cozy interior. The layout is both functional and inviting, offering limitless potential for customization. Whether you’re hosting intimate gatherings or seeking solitude with nature right outside your door, you'll fall in love with all this delightful property has to offer. Don’t miss this rare opportunity to claim your slice of paradise—a place where you can nurture not only plants but dreams as well. Schedule your private tour today to experience firsthand the unique charm of this Clearlake Oaks gem!

Key facts

• Garden oasis
• Natural light
• Functional layout

Tags

• GARDEN OASIS
• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD
• NATURAL LIGHT
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $393 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $199k).
• Recommended offer: $187k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 4.3% in Clearlake Oaks — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#569 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime B; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Konocti Unified (town): math 9% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #494 of 517 in CA (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 136 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 107 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $199k implies a 469% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $187,060 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.46%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $221,107
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: -10.00%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12410 Lakeview Dr	0.26mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,056 (+5%)	2mo	$159,000	$151	72
12861 Lakeview Dr	0.25mi	2/1.0 (-1)	932 (-8%)	7mo	$95,000	$102	63
12940 1st St	0.34mi	2/2.0 (-1)	936 (-7%)	2mo	$198,500	$212	63
13084 4th St	0.49mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,000 (-1%)	9mo	$185,000	$185	63
12801 E Highway 20	0.20mi	2/1.0 (-1)	900 (-11%)	5mo	$190,000	$211	62
12500 Shady Ln	0.40mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,049 (+4%)	8mo	$175,000	$167	61
12742 Shoreview Dr	0.16mi	2/1.0 (-1)	888 (-12%)	8mo	$207,000	$233	59
13169 Third St	0.58mi	3/1.0	1,066 (+6%)	3mo	$215,000	$202	58
12888 First St	0.28mi	2/1.5 (-1)	916 (-9%)	12mo	$195,000	$213	57
584 Bass	0.66mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,056 (+5%)	2mo	$291,000	$276	55
12939 3rd St	0.35mi	2/1.0 (-1)	896 (-11%)	10mo	$139,000	$155	50
13334 Anchor	0.75mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,084 (+8%)	10mo	$285,000	$263	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-7,322
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.46×
• Total profit: $25,482
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95423

• Home prices YoY: -20.6%
• Active inventory: 136
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$61 /mo · $730/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $393

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,503

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12755 Blue Heron Ct Clearlake Oaks, CA	2.0	2.0	1134	$2,000	$1.76	43d	1	0.33mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $199,000 Active 69 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 68 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 67 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 66 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 65 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,000 Active 63 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 62 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,000 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 59 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $199,000 Active 58 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,000 Active 57 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $199,000 Active 54 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,000 Active 52 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 51 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 50 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $199,000 Active 49 DOM
17. 2026-04-11
    listed $199,000 Active 1187-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1187 chars)

    Discover your serene escape in Clearlake Oaks, California, where this charming home sits nestled in a quiet and peaceful neighborhood. Offering the perfect blend of tranquility and convenience, this property boasts ample space for creating your own thriving garden oasis—a gardener's dream come true! Just minutes from the center of town, you can enjoy the quaint community vibe while having easy access to shopping, dining, and recreational activities. The property's location ensures you're never far from the vibrant life of Clearlake Oaks yet enveloped by a sense of calm. Step inside to find a home filled with warm natural light that highlights its cozy interior. The layout is both functional and inviting, offering limitless potential for customization. Whether you’re hosting intimate gatherings or seeking solitude with nature right outside your door, you'll fall in love with all this delightful property has to offer. Don’t miss this rare opportunity to claim your slice of paradise—a place where you can nurture not only plants but dreams as well. Schedule your private tour today to experience firsthand the unique charm of this Clearlake Oaks gem!

18. 1999-07-22
    soldstatus $35,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $730 · $61/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,512 · $126/mo
• Expected delta: +$782/yr (+$65/mo · 107.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 32 unhealthy d/yr today · 34 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$730
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,920
• − Management: −$1,920
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable income: $1,499
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$360
• After-tax cash flow: $4,352/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Konocti Unified
• NCES district ID: 0620070
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $30,026
• Composite: 11.81/100
• National rank: #9677
• State rank: #494 of 517 in CA

Livability — Clearlake Oaks

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #569
• US rank: #18675

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime B Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Clearlake Oaks, CA
• Population (ZIP): 3,432

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,396 people
• By 2030: 60,626 · -2.8%
• By 2040: 56,453 · -9.5%
• By 2050: 53,054 · -15.0%
• By 2075: 47,663 · -23.6%
• By 2100: 41,804 · -33.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 9% Native American 3% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Lithuanian 4% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 7% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 49.2% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 19.3pp · 2024: -1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.4 2020: D+6.3 2016: D+3.7 2012: D+16.5 2008: D+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -46.32%
• Current HPI: 178.9812
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+468.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Listed $199,000 CRMLS
• 1999-07-22 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $730 · +1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.