12779 Enchanted Path Dr · Houston, TX 77044

$164,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,727 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 72 Days on market

Built 1978 5,667 sqft lot $95/sqft · 18% below area Est $200k · 18% under $16/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming single-story home located in the established Parkway Forest subdivision. This 4-bedroom, 2-bath residence offers approximately 1,727 sq ft of living space on a spacious lot, featuring a functional floor plan, generously sized bedrooms, and a cozy gas log fireplace. The home includes central heating and cooling, brick exterior construction, and a composition roof. Conveniently situated with easy access to Beltway 8 and major thoroughfares, providing quick connectivity to shopping, dining, and surrounding areas. Great opportunity for homeowners or investors. Please verify all dimensions. All room dimensions are approximate; please verify independently

Key facts

• 5,667 sq ft lot
• Built 1978
• Listed 72 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $164k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $183 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $164k).
• Recommended offer: $154k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Sheldon ISD (suburban): math 19% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #746 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 337 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.6%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask is 8532% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $154,160 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.78%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $200,337
• List price: $164,000
• Delta: -18.14%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12779 Enchanted Path Dr	0.00mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,727 (0%)	1mo	$164,000	$95	94
9518 Belleclaire Ln	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,665 (-4%)	1mo	$193,200	$116	73
12422 Garden Gale Ln	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,736 (+0%)	5mo	$259,000	$149	70
12915 Crystal Cove Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,597 (-8%)	1mo	$174,900	$110	68
12822 Crystal Cove Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,597 (-8%)	2mo	$220,000	$138	68
12963 Bamboo Forest Trl	0.41mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,617 (-6%)	6mo	$239,999	$148	60
9734 Vanessa Glen Ct	0.66mi	3/2.5	1,800 (+4%)	1mo	$290,000	$161	59
9742 Raisbeck Pl	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,772 (+3%)	6mo	$235,000	$133	58
9115 Georgio Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,829 (+6%)	2mo	$274,999	$150	57
12415 Garden Gale Ln	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,494 (-14%)	3mo	$220,000	$147	48
13206 Chanel Dr	0.65mi	3/2.5	1,981 (+15%)	4mo	$249,999	$126	40
13214 Ambrosa Dr	0.72mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,960 (+14%)	1mo	$224,900	$115	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.59% appreciation · 0.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-8,717
• Equity at exit: $35,025

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $1,822
• Equity at exit: $33,019

Cash invested: $45,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77044

• Home prices YoY: -0.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 337
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,880 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$860
• Tax from tax record: −$358 /mo · $4,297/yr
• Insurance: −$68
• HOA: −$16
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$395
• Net cashflow: $183

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,649

Max offer price $164,000

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,000
• Closing costs: $4,920
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12703 Enchanted Path Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1432	$1,701	$1.19	12d	1	0.19mi
15 Parkway Forest Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1116	$1,279	$1.15	24d	1	0.28mi
12610 Fern Forest Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1196	$1,736	$1.45	43d	1	0.29mi
12539 Fern Forest Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1192	$1,750	$1.47	4d	1	0.34mi
9418 Belleclaire Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1424	$1,950	$1.37	24d	1	0.39mi
12319 Garden Gale Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1716	$1,766	$1.03	5d	1	0.66mi
12324 Tidwell Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1170	$1,254	$1.07	24d	1	0.70mi
12212 Tidwell Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	949	$1,315	$1.39	5d	15	0.72mi
13206 Clifton Hill Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1632	$2,500	$1.53	17d	1	0.72mi
10007 Copper Hollow Ln Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1773	$1,700	$0.96	44d	1	0.81mi
12227 Ghita Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1433	$1,750	$1.22	43d	1	0.91mi
12315 Roy Mix Bohn Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1433	$1,750	$1.22	43d	1	0.93mi
10306 White Fir Villa Ave Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1560	$2,100	$1.35	43d	1	1.10mi
10410 Solitude Way Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2174	$2,100	$0.97	2d	1	1.15mi
10103 Dawson Hill Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2021	$2,249	$1.11	22d	1	1.27mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $16 · $192/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-05-08
   historical $1,900

   Show marketing remark (666 chars)

   Charming single-story home located in the established Parkway Forest subdivision. This 4-bedroom, 2-bath residence offers approximately 1,727 sq ft of living space on a spacious lot, featuring a functional floor plan, generously sized bedrooms, and a cozy gas log fireplace. The home includes central heating and cooling, brick exterior construction, and a composition roof. Conveniently situated with easy access to Beltway 8 and major thoroughfares, providing quick connectivity to shopping, dining, and surrounding areas. Great opportunity for homeowners or investors. Please verify all dimensions. All room dimensions are approximate; please verify independently

2. 2026-05-08
   status Pending 666-char remark

   Show marketing remark (666 chars)

   Charming single-story home located in the established Parkway Forest subdivision. This 4-bedroom, 2-bath residence offers approximately 1,727 sq ft of living space on a spacious lot, featuring a functional floor plan, generously sized bedrooms, and a cozy gas log fireplace. The home includes central heating and cooling, brick exterior construction, and a composition roof. Conveniently situated with easy access to Beltway 8 and major thoroughfares, providing quick connectivity to shopping, dining, and surrounding areas. Great opportunity for homeowners or investors. Please verify all dimensions. All room dimensions are approximate; please verify independently

3. 2026-04-17
   status Active 666-char remark

   Show marketing remark (666 chars)

   Charming single-story home located in the established Parkway Forest subdivision. This 4-bedroom, 2-bath residence offers approximately 1,727 sq ft of living space on a spacious lot, featuring a functional floor plan, generously sized bedrooms, and a cozy gas log fireplace. The home includes central heating and cooling, brick exterior construction, and a composition roof. Conveniently situated with easy access to Beltway 8 and major thoroughfares, providing quick connectivity to shopping, dining, and surrounding areas. Great opportunity for homeowners or investors. Please verify all dimensions. All room dimensions are approximate; please verify independently

4. 2026-04-17
   price $164,000 666-char remark

   Show marketing remark (666 chars)

   Charming single-story home located in the established Parkway Forest subdivision. This 4-bedroom, 2-bath residence offers approximately 1,727 sq ft of living space on a spacious lot, featuring a functional floor plan, generously sized bedrooms, and a cozy gas log fireplace. The home includes central heating and cooling, brick exterior construction, and a composition roof. Conveniently situated with easy access to Beltway 8 and major thoroughfares, providing quick connectivity to shopping, dining, and surrounding areas. Great opportunity for homeowners or investors. Please verify all dimensions. All room dimensions are approximate; please verify independently

5. 2026-04-12
   historical 666-char remark

   Show marketing remark (666 chars)

   Charming single-story home located in the established Parkway Forest subdivision. This 4-bedroom, 2-bath residence offers approximately 1,727 sq ft of living space on a spacious lot, featuring a functional floor plan, generously sized bedrooms, and a cozy gas log fireplace. The home includes central heating and cooling, brick exterior construction, and a composition roof. Conveniently situated with easy access to Beltway 8 and major thoroughfares, providing quick connectivity to shopping, dining, and surrounding areas. Great opportunity for homeowners or investors. Please verify all dimensions. All room dimensions are approximate; please verify independently

6. 2026-04-06
   listed $1,900
7. 2026-02-20
   listed $179,000 Active 666-char remark

   Show marketing remark (666 chars)

   Charming single-story home located in the established Parkway Forest subdivision. This 4-bedroom, 2-bath residence offers approximately 1,727 sq ft of living space on a spacious lot, featuring a functional floor plan, generously sized bedrooms, and a cozy gas log fireplace. The home includes central heating and cooling, brick exterior construction, and a composition roof. Conveniently situated with easy access to Beltway 8 and major thoroughfares, providing quick connectivity to shopping, dining, and surrounding areas. Great opportunity for homeowners or investors. Please verify all dimensions. All room dimensions are approximate; please verify independently

8. 2022-05-09
   historical
9. 2022-04-29
   status Active
10. 2022-03-28
    status Pending
11. 2022-03-28
    historical
12. 2022-03-11
    listed $239,000 Active
13. 2020-08-25
    historical
14. 2020-05-12
    listed $147,900 Active
15. 2017-06-20
    soldstatus
16. 2014-12-22
    soldstatus
17. 1994-09-30
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,297 · $358/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,297 · $358/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,560
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,187
• − Property taxes: −$4,297
• − Insurance: −$820
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,805
• − Management: −$1,805
• − HOA: −$192
• − Depreciation: −$4,771
• Taxable loss: −$315
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$76
• After-tax cash flow: $2,269/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sheldon ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $49,443
• Composite: 19.5/100
• National rank: #8772
• State rank: #746 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 58,347
• Household income: $95,000
• Rent vs Own: 24.1% rent · 75.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1332.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 44% Black 32% White 19% Two or more races 18% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 35% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.59%
• Current HPI: 215.5736
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.92%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-98.7% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Rental Removed $1,900 HARMLS
• 2026-05-08 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-17 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $164,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-12 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-06 Listed for Rent $1,900 HARMLS
• 2026-02-20 Listed $179,000 HARMLS
• 2022-05-09 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-04-29 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2022-03-28 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-03-28 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-03-11 Listed $239,000 HARMLS
• 2020-08-25 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2020-05-12 Listed $147,900 HARMLS
• 2017-06-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-12-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1994-09-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,297 · -16.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.