10819 SE 190th Ct · Silver Springs Shores East, FL 32179

$55,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,624 sqft · SingleFamily · 106 Days on market

Built 1959 Poor condition 0.69 ac lot $34/sqft · 41% below area Est $94k · 41% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Step into the gin-clear, spring-fed waters of Lake Catherine — right from your own 150+ feet of private shoreline. This 2-bedroom, 2-bath recreation cabin sits deep in the Ocala National Forest, offering the perfect weekend getaway for fishing, kayaking, swimming, and campfire cookouts at the on-site Whole hog BBQ pit. With some TLC, this becomes your personal base camp for everything the forest has explore. Camp is on leased land from the National Forest Service. Price reflects NFS directive that the lease will not be renewed after the lease expiration in 2040, and property is to be returned to its natural state at that time. Property Cannot be full time residence, must maintain primary residence elsewhere. Power is not on, buyer to make arrangements for inspections. No range No refrigerator.

Key facts

• Surrounded by nature
• Outdoor bbq pit
• Lake catherine

Tags

• LAKE CATHERINE
• OVER 150 FEET OF LAKESHORE
• OUTDOOR BBQ PIT
• SURROUNDED BY NATURE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $55k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $718 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $50k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 24.7% vs local median 5.2% in Silver Springs Shores East — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 426 active listings in the ZIP; 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($47k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($50k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo; built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $50,050 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
8. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
9. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.82% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 65.74%
• DSCR: 3.93
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $93,981
• List price: $55,000
• Delta: -41.48%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 54.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.40×
• Total profit: $36,949
• Equity at exit: $8,201

10-year hold

• IRR: 59.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.94×
• Total profit: $91,507
• Equity at exit: $4,755

Cash invested: $15,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32179

• Home prices YoY: -18.3%
• Active inventory: 426
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,549 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$69 /mo · $825/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$325
• Net cashflow: $718

Break-even live

Break-even rent $640

Max offer price $55,000

Occupancy floor 49%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,750
• Closing costs: $1,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $55,000 Active 106 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $55,000 Active 105 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $55,000 Active 104 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $55,000 Active 103 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $55,000 Active 101 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $55,000 Active 100 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $60,000 Active 98 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $60,000 Active 97 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $60,000 Active 96 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $60,000 Active 95 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $60,000 Active 91 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $60,000 Active 90 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $60,000 Active 89 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $60,000 Active 88 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $60,000 Active 87 DOM
16. 2026-03-04
    listed $65,000 Active 810-char remark

    Show marketing remark (810 chars)

    Step into the gin-clear, spring-fed waters of Lake Catherine — right from your own 150+ feet of private shoreline. This 2-bedroom, 2-bath recreation cabin sits deep in the Ocala National Forest, offering the perfect weekend getaway for fishing, kayaking, swimming, and campfire cookouts at the on-site Whole hog BBQ pit. With some TLC, this becomes your personal base camp for everything the forest has explore. Camp is on leased land from the National Forest Service. Price reflects NFS directive that the lease will not be renewed after the lease expiration in 2040, and property is to be returned to its natural state at that time. Property Cannot be full time residence, must maintain primary residence elsewhere. Power is not on, buyer to make arrangements for inspections. No range No refrigerator.

17. 2019-11-05
    historical
18. 2019-10-31
    listed $60,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,589
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,081
• − Property taxes: −$825
• − Insurance: −$1,778
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,487
• − Management: −$1,487
• − Depreciation: −$1,600
• Taxable income: $8,332
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,000
• After-tax cash flow: $6,622/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive renovations to bring it up to modern standards and improve its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major kitchen cabinets — severely worn and outdated
• Major bathroom fixtures — dated and worn
• Major roof — visible wear and tear
• Major exterior siding — weathered and exposed
• Major HVAC systems — outdated and likely inefficient

Value-add opportunities

• Resale kitchen renovation — modern kitchen will attract more buyers
• Resale bathroom renovation — updated bathrooms will appeal to buyers
• Resale exterior siding and roof repair — new siding and roof will improve curb appeal
• Both HVAC system replacement — modern HVAC will improve comfort and energy efficiency
• Both landscaping and curb appeal — improved landscaping will enhance curb appeal and attract more visitors

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · severely worn and outdated	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathroom fixtures · dated and worn	Major	$15,000–50,000
roof · visible wear and tear	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · weathered and exposed	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC systems · outdated and likely inefficient	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$75,000–250,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale kitchen renovation — modern kitchen will attract more buyers ↑
• Resale bathroom renovation — updated bathrooms will appeal to buyers ↑
• Resale exterior siding and roof repair — new siding and roof will improve curb appeal ↑
• Both HVAC system replacement — modern HVAC will improve comfort and energy efficiency ↑
• Both landscaping and curb appeal — improved landscaping will enhance curb appeal and attract more visitors ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Silver Springs Shores East

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 9,318
• Household income: $46,512
• Rent vs Own: 17.6% rent · 82.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 303.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.21%
• Current HPI: 242.0408
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+8.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-04 Listed $65,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-11-05 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-10-31 Listed $60,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid