🏷️ Likely Rental
575 S Lyon #146 · Hemet, CA
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 6/10 · Moderate
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $659 – $1,223
Heat risk 7/10 · Major
- Hot days now (above 104°F)
- 6 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 17 days/yr
Wind risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- —
Air-quality risk 6/10 · Moderate
- Unhealthy air days now
- 9 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 11 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +30.0/30.0
- ARV discount +15.0/15.0
- 1% rule +10.0/10.0
- DSCR +10.0/10.0
- Rent growth +2.9/5.0
- Livability +2.6/5.0
- Schools +2.5/10.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$55,000
🖨 Deal sheet 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
The property is located in the beautiful 55+ community of Golden Coach Manor in Hemet. It offers two bedrooms and two full baths, the master bath features a shower and sunken tub. The kitchen flows into the family room and living room and also includes a built in breakfast nook. The spacious living and dinning room features built-in China cabinets with a custom mirror and extra storage space. Both bedrooms have large closets with additional storage on the side, along with extra storage in the hallway. The property also includes an enclosed side porch/sunroom and two storage sheds, one of which can be used as a workshop. There's no need to use the community laundry, as the home offers it's own laundry room with washer and dryer included. Additional features include a newer HVAC system, two car covered parking with a patio. A security door and flood lighting. A small backyard allows for easy maintenance, and the low space rent of rent of $635.00 per month. The community also offers a heated pool and spa, a dog park, shuffleboard courts and a clubhouse with billiard and card room. This is the perfect home, offering both lifestyle and community all in one-make this your new home.
Key facts
- Enclosed side porch
- Laundry room
- Two storage sheds
Tags
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $55k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $55k).
- Recommended offer: $52k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 31.3% vs local median 4.9% in Hemet — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,056 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, amenities F.
- Hemet Unified (suburban): math 19% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #360 of 517 in CA (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
- Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 264 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
- At $1,862/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($49k/yr) (locally 2144% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
- At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.8% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($52k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 2 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Risks & watch-outs
- Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
- Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 3.39% ✓
- Cap rate
- 31.28%
- Cash-on-cash
- 89.22%
- DSCR
- 4.97
- GRM
- 2.5
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $105,797
- List price
- $55,000
- Delta
- -48.01%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1760 Santiago | 0.16mi | 2/2.0 | 1,248 (0%) | 0mo | $118,000 | $95 | 92 |
| 2205 W Acacia Ave #6 | 0.30mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 1,250 (+0%) | 2mo | $130,000 | $104 | 79 |
| 770 S Lyon | 0.24mi | 2/2.0 | 1,152 (-8%) | 3mo | $78,900 | $68 | 73 |
| 853 SANTA TERESA Way | 0.32mi | 2/2.0 | 1,368 (+10%) | 2mo | $151,000 | $110 | 68 |
| 180 Santa Paula | 0.34mi | 2/2.0 | 1,368 (+10%) | 2mo | $139,000 | $102 | 66 |
| 1111 W Johnston Ave | 0.60mi | 2/2.0 | 1,200 (-4%) | 0mo | $135,000 | $113 | 65 |
| 2205 acacia #62 | 0.30mi | 2/2.0 | 1,400 (+12%) | 1mo | $73,000 | $52 | 65 |
| 1730 San Marcos | 0.50mi | 2/2.0 | 1,344 (+8%) | 3mo | $135,000 | $100 | 61 |
| 1083 Via Del Mesa | 0.73mi | 2/2.0 | 1,200 (-4%) | 3mo | $149,900 | $125 | 57 |
| 944 S Elk | 0.55mi | 2/2.0 | 1,368 (+10%) | 3mo | $71,000 | $52 | 56 |
| 930 S Santa Victoria | 0.52mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 1,356 (+9%) | 1mo | $140,000 | $103 | 56 |
| 1167 Via Del Mesa | 0.69mi | 2/2.0 | 1,152 (-8%) | 1mo | $135,000 | $117 | 54 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 1.76% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- 88.5%
- Equity multiple
- 5.01×
- Total profit
- $61,714
- Equity at exit
- $8,201
- IRR
- 91.2%
- Equity multiple
- 9.99×
- Total profit
- $138,440
- Equity at exit
- $4,755
Cash invested: $15,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
- State California
- 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 92543
- Home prices YoY
- -26.7%
- Rents YoY
- 1.8%
- Active inventory
- 264
- Price-to-rent
- 2.5×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $1,862 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$288
- Tax from tax record
- −$14 /mo · $173/yr
- Insurance
- −$23
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$391
- Net cashflow
- $1,145
Break-even live
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $13,750
- Closing costs
- $1,650
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 40 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 471 Whitney Dr Hemet, CA | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1085 | $1,800 | $1.66 | 5d | 1 | 0.18mi |
| 1850 Amberwood Dr Hemet, CA | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1170 | $1,561 | $1.33 | 43d | 1 | 0.21mi |
| 1461 W Mayberry Ave Hemet, CA | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1044 | $1,750 | $1.68 | 43d | 1 | 0.25mi |
| 1521 W Westmont Ave Hemet, CA | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1197 | $2,000 | $1.67 | 43d | 1 | 0.27mi |
| 2098 W Acacia Ave Hemet, CA | 1.0–3.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 895 | $2,035 | $2.27 | 1d | 1 | 0.38mi |
| 683 Jonquil St Hemet, CA | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1150 | $2,448 | $2.13 | 24d | 1 | 0.39mi |
| 101 San Mateo Cir Hemet, CA | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1152 | $1,725 | $1.50 | 16d | 1 | 0.42mi |
| 120 Santa Lucia Dr Hemet, CA | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1197 | $1,600 | $1.34 | 43d | 1 | 0.43mi |
| 2403 W Acacia Ave Hemet, CA | 2.0 | 2.0 | 910 | $1,995 | $2.19 | 7d | 1 | 0.45mi |
| 2469 W Acacia Ave Hemet, CA | 2.0 | 2.0 | 910 | $1,750 | $1.92 | 24d | 1 | 0.47mi |
| 611 S Palm Ave Unit K Hemet, CA | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1254 | $1,895 | $1.51 | 7d | 1 | 0.53mi |
| 876 W Whittier Ave Unit 878 Hemet, CA | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1127 | $2,150 | $1.91 | 24d | 1 | 0.65mi |
| 471 S Simpson Ave Unit D Hemet, CA | 2.0 | 2.0 | 900 | $1,750 | $1.94 | 43d | 1 | 0.67mi |
| 750 Santa Clara Cir Hemet, CA | 2.0 | 2.0 | 800 | $1,400 | $1.75 | 14d | 1 | 0.68mi |
| 893 S Palm Ave Hemet, CA | 2.0 | 2.0 | 720 | $1,375 | $1.91 | 4d | 1 | 0.72mi |
| 1315 W Latham Ave Hemet, CA | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1340 | $2,550 | $1.90 | 43d | 1 | 0.75mi |
| 3030 W Acacia Ave Hemet, CA | 1.0–3.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 892 | $1,895 | $2.12 | 1d | 10 | 0.79mi |
| 165 N Hamilton Ave Unit 3 Hemet, CA | 1.0 | 1.0 | 768 | $1,450 | $1.89 | 5d | 1 | 0.82mi |
| 165 N Hamilton Ave Unit 4 Hemet, CA | 1.0 | 1.0 | 768 | $1,525 | $1.99 | 21d | 1 | 0.82mi |
| 1955 Silver Oak Way Hemet, CA | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1318 | $2,250 | $1.71 | 43d | 1 | 0.82mi |
| 250 N Elk St Hemet, CA | 2.0 | 1.0 | 900 | $1,625 | $1.81 | 13d | 1 | 0.86mi |
| 735 S Gilbert St Hemet, CA | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1202 | $2,400 | $2.00 | 43d | 1 | 0.88mi |
| 363 S Gilbert St Hemet, CA | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1200 | $1,900 | $1.58 | 4d | 1 | 0.88mi |
| 363 S Gilbert St Unit B Hemet, CA | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1200 | $1,900 | $1.58 | 13d | 1 | 0.88mi |
| 341 Calle Nogales Hemet, CA | 2.0 | 1.0 | 827 | $1,395 | $1.69 | 43d | 1 | 0.88mi |
| 1005 S Gilbert St Hemet, CA | 2.0 | 1.5 | 975 | $1,825 | $1.87 | 24d | 2 | 0.97mi |
| 1887 Calle Amargosa Hemet, CA | 2.0 | 1.0 | 827 | $1,545 | $1.87 | 24d | 1 | 0.98mi |
| 1025 S Gilbert St Hemet, CA | 1.0–2.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 890 | $2,320 | $2.61 | 1d | 8 | 0.99mi |
| 716 Robert Dr Hemet, CA | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1450 | $2,300 | $1.59 | 5d | 1 | 1.00mi |
| 2054 Avenida Olivos Hemet, CA | 2.0 | 1.0 | 820 | $1,500 | $1.83 | 43d | 1 | 1.02mi |
| 1270 Rosalia Ave Unit 1 Hemet, CA | 2.0 | 1.0 | 900 | $1,800 | $2.00 | 43d | 1 | 1.05mi |
| 1862 Pueblo Dr Hemet, CA | 2.0 | 2.0 | 977 | $1,900 | $1.94 | 43d | 1 | 1.06mi |
| 1862 Pueblo Dr Unit 1862 Hemet, CA | 2.0 | 2.0 | 977 | $1,750 | $1.79 | 24d | 1 | 1.06mi |
| 2120 San Bernardo Ave Hemet, CA | 2.0 | 1.0 | 827 | $2,100 | $2.54 | 43d | 1 | 1.06mi |
| 2269 San Bernardo Ave Hemet, CA | 2.0 | 1.0 | 827 | $1,650 | $2.00 | 43d | 1 | 1.06mi |
| 2770 W Devonshire Ave Hemet, CA | 1.0–2.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 707 | $1,945 | $2.75 | 1d | 11 | 1.08mi |
| 446 N Elk St Unit D Hemet, CA | 2.0 | 1.0 | 980 | $1,675 | $1.71 | 24d | 1 | 1.10mi |
| 1964 W Oakland Ave Hemet, CA | 2.0 | 2.0 | 977 | $1,695 | $1.73 | 18d | 1 | 1.11mi |
| 1354 Jasmine Way Hemet, CA | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1440 | $1,650 | $1.15 | 43d | 1 | 1.16mi |
| 528 San Marino St Hemet, CA | 2.0 | 1.0 | 827 | $1,900 | $2.30 | 43d | 1 | 1.18mi |
Listing history 12 events
-
2026-06-09days on market $55,000 Active 83 DOM
-
2026-06-08days on market $55,000 Active 82 DOM
-
2026-06-07days on market $55,000 Active 81 DOM
-
2026-06-04days on market $55,000 Active 78 DOM
-
2026-06-03days on market $55,000 Active 77 DOM
-
2026-06-02days on market $55,000 Active 76 DOM
-
2026-06-01days on market $55,000 Active 75 DOM
-
2026-05-31days on market $55,000 Active 74 DOM
-
2026-03-18$55,000 Active 1194-char remark
Show marketing remark (1194 chars)
The property is located in the beautiful 55+ community of Golden Coach Manor in Hemet. It offers two bedrooms and two full baths, the master bath features a shower and sunken tub. The kitchen flows into the family room and living room and also includes a built in breakfast nook. The spacious living and dinning room features built-in China cabinets with a custom mirror and extra storage space. Both bedrooms have large closets with additional storage on the side, along with extra storage in the hallway. The property also includes an enclosed side porch/sunroom and two storage sheds, one of which can be used as a workshop. There's no need to use the community laundry, as the home offers it's own laundry room with washer and dryer included. Additional features include a newer HVAC system, two car covered parking with a patio. A security door and flood lighting. A small backyard allows for easy maintenance, and the low space rent of rent of $635.00 per month. The community also offers a heated pool and spa, a dog park, shuffleboard courts and a clubhouse with billiard and card room. This is the perfect home, offering both lifestyle and community all in one-make this your new home.
-
2010-05-01historical
-
2010-03-24price $25,500
-
2009-11-25$39,950 Active
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price
- Current annual tax
- $173 · $14/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $418 · $35/mo
- Expected delta
- +$245/yr (+$20/mo · 141.3%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 6/10 Major
- Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥104°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 1/10 Low
- Air quality 6/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $22,341
- − Mortgage interest
- −$3,081
- − Property taxes
- −$173
- − Insurance
- −$275
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$1,787
- − Management
- −$1,787
- − Depreciation
- −$1,600
- Taxable income
- $13,638
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$3,273
- After-tax cash flow
- $10,467/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Hemet Unified
- NCES district ID
- 0616920
- Math proficiency
- 19% ▼ -3.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 41% ▲ 4.00%
- Median HH income
- $39,962
- Composite
- 25.16/100
- National rank
- #7517
- State rank
- #360 of 517 in CA
Livability — Hemet
- Score
- 51/100
- State rank
- #1056
- US rank
- #25208
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Hemet, CA
- County
- Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
- City population
- 137,670
- Metro
- Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
- Population (ZIP)
- 39,937
- Household income
- $49,396
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 2144.0
Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 2,664,475 people
- By 2030
- 2,802,692 · +5.2%
- By 2040
- 3,050,904 · +14.5%
- By 2050
- 3,256,783 · +22.2%
- By 2075
- 3,655,058 · +37.2%
- By 2100
- 3,766,594 · +41.4%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
- Race & ethnicity
- Hispanic / Latino 54% White 30% Two or more races 18% Black 10% Native American 2% Asian 2%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 48% Puerto Rican 1%
- Common ancestry
- Slovak 1% Romanian 1% Portuguese 1%
- Foreign-born
- 21% · Canada
- Languages at home
- 59% English-only · Spanish 38% Arabic 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Riverside
- 2024 margin
- Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -147.46%
- Current HPI
- 405.1277
- Rent YoY
- ▲ 1.76%
- Metro
- Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 3.21%
- F500 in state
- 116
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Technology | 27 | $1,492B |
|
||
| Financial Services | 3 | $174B |
|
||
| Retail | 3 | $44B |
|
||
| Insurance | 3 | $26B |
|
||
| Media / Entertainment | 2 | $115B |
|
||
| Pharmaceuticals / Biotech | 2 | $62B |
|
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Price history
+37.7% since first listed4 events — show timeline
- 2026-03-18 Listed $55,000 CRMLS
- 2010-05-01 Listing Removed — CRMLS
- 2010-03-24 Price Changed $25,500 CRMLS
- 2009-11-25 Listed $39,950 CRMLS
Property tax history
-3.1%/yrLatest (2025): $173 · +7.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…