21409 Panama St · Warren, MI 48091

$119,900

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 945 sqft · SingleFamily public records

Built 1948 6,970 sqft lot Est $136k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.2/30.0
• ARV discount +12.9/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice home that is currently tenant occupied. 4 bedroom, 1.5 baths with a detached oversized 2.5 garage. All this plus a basement. Home has been tenant occupied for many years, always complying with Warren's rental certifications. Purchase it as money maker or live in yourself and make it your own. Rentals in the area are leasing for $1500-$1700. You won't find a home with these many features for this price. Vacant lot next to home could be available to purchase through the city. Tenant will need a minimum 24 hours notice to show.

Key facts

• 6,970 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1948

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $382 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 5.3% in Warren — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#171 in MI, #4,491 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities D, employment D.
• Fitzgerald Public Schools (urban): math 8% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #503 of 540 in MI (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 168 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,321 units permitted in Macomb County in 2024 (86 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Macomb County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.4% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $86k; 39% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $119,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.64%
• DSCR: 1.61
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $136,080
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21844 Hill St	0.30mi	3/1.0 (-1)	939 (-1%)	8mo	$190,000	$202	71
5584 Toepfer Rd	0.16mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,007 (+7%)	8mo	$139,900	$139	68
22006 Hill St	0.36mi	3/1.0 (-1)	939 (-1%)	9mo	$200,000	$213	68
21115 Albany Ave	0.19mi	3/1.5 (-1)	859 (-9%)	8mo	$155,000	$180	64
21029 Blackmar Ave	0.15mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,062 (+12%)	6mo	$120,000	$113	60
21034 Atlantic Ave	0.22mi	3/1.0 (-1)	836 (-12%)	5mo	$120,000	$144	59
22011 Masch Ave	0.47mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,000 (+6%)	5mo	$163,000	$163	57
22369 Cunningham Ave	0.65mi	3/1.0 (-1)	900 (-5%)	1mo	$150,000	$167	54
20059 Bloom St	0.65mi	3/1.0 (-1)	911 (-4%)	4mo	$90,000	$99	53
21034 Audrey Ave	0.27mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,080 (+14%)	7mo	$50,000	$46	51
20294 Moenart St	0.49mi	3/1.0 (-1)	878 (-7%)	10mo	$60,000	$68	50
20057 Keystone St	0.67mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,019 (+8%)	7mo	$81,500	$80	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.35% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $3,903
• Equity at exit: $17,877

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.92×
• Total profit: $30,758
• Equity at exit: $10,367

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48091

• Rents YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 168
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,527 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$146 /mo · $1,755/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$321
• Net cashflow: $382

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,044

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21410 Panama St Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	900	$1,600	$1.78	24d	1	0.02mi
21465 Syracuse Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	990	$1,375	$1.39	44d	1	0.11mi
20794 Audrey Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	954	$1,350	$1.42	44d	1	0.34mi
22622 Panama Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.5	920	$1,395	$1.52	11d	1	0.53mi
20263 Caldwell St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	909	$1,350	$1.49	17d	1	0.53mi
22580 Masch Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	988	$1,450	$1.47	24d	1	0.67mi
7060 Victory Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	945	$1,450	$1.53	11d	1	0.92mi
7511 Toepfer Rd Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	1032	$1,199	$1.16	22d	1	1.06mi
19450 Fenelon St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1062	$1,384	$1.30	5d	1	1.06mi
19415 Gable St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,373	$1.37	24d	1	1.09mi
19930 Binder St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,450	$1.45	17d	1	1.14mi
19260 Bloom St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,350	$1.23	4d	1	1.19mi
3840 Bart Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	1062	$1,350	$1.27	24d	1	1.30mi
18891 Moenart St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	870	$1,195	$1.37	17d	1	1.39mi
18884 Bloom St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	979	$975	$1.00	44d	1	1.39mi
18884 Bloom St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	979	$975	$1.00	22d	1	1.39mi
19450 Norwood St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,200	$1.20	5d	1	1.40mi
8251 Hudson Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	908	$1,400	$1.54	24d	1	1.41mi
20255 Harned St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,374	$1.37	17d	1	1.41mi
8242 Jackson Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	840	$1,198	$1.43	44d	1	1.42mi
19694 Gallagher St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,150	$1.15	15d	1	1.45mi
8285 Rivard Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	902	$1,549	$1.72	24d	1	1.46mi
19360 Revere St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,250	$1.19	24d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 535-char remark

   Show marketing remark (535 chars)

   Nice home that is currently tenant occupied. 4 bedroom, 1.5 baths with a detached oversized 2.5 garage. All this plus a basement. Home has been tenant occupied for many years, always complying with Warren's rental certifications. Purchase it as money maker or live in yourself and make it your own. Rentals in the area are leasing for $1500-$1700. You won't find a home with these many features for this price. Vacant lot next to home could be available to purchase through the city. Tenant will need a minimum 24 hours notice to show.

2. 2026-05-18
   listed $119,900 Active 535-char remark

   Show marketing remark (535 chars)

   Nice home that is currently tenant occupied. 4 bedroom, 1.5 baths with a detached oversized 2.5 garage. All this plus a basement. Home has been tenant occupied for many years, always complying with Warren's rental certifications. Purchase it as money maker or live in yourself and make it your own. Rentals in the area are leasing for $1500-$1700. You won't find a home with these many features for this price. Vacant lot next to home could be available to purchase through the city. Tenant will need a minimum 24 hours notice to show.

3. 2005-06-13
   soldstatus $86,000
4. 2005-05-13
   soldstatus $86,000 258-char remark

   Show marketing remark (258 chars)

   UPDATES INCLUDE 80+ EFFIC GFA '04 VINYL WINDOWS & ROOF (STRIPPED) HOUSE & 24X22 GAR, NEWER HWT, HOUSE NEEDS PAINT, CARPET. WET PLASTER COVED CEILINGS, HARDWOOD FLRS, SUN ROOM OFF KITCHEN. 1/2 BATH IS IN FINISHED BASEMENT. HOME SITS ON DOUBLE LOT.

5. 2005-05-13
   soldstatus $86,000

   Show marketing remark (258 chars)

   UPDATES INCLUDE 80+ EFFIC GFA '04 VINYL WINDOWS & ROOF (STRIPPED) HOUSE & 24X22 GAR, NEWER HWT, HOUSE NEEDS PAINT, CARPET. WET PLASTER COVED CEILINGS, HARDWOOD FLRS, SUN ROOM OFF KITCHEN. 1/2 BATH IS IN FINISHED BASEMENT. HOME SITS ON DOUBLE LOT.

6. 2005-03-17
   historical
7. 2004-05-19
   listed $99,900 258-char remark

   Show marketing remark (258 chars)

   UPDATES INCLUDE 80+ EFFIC GFA '04 VINYL WINDOWS & ROOF (STRIPPED) HOUSE & 24X22 GAR, NEWER HWT, HOUSE NEEDS PAINT, CARPET. WET PLASTER COVED CEILINGS, HARDWOOD FLRS, SUN ROOM OFF KITCHEN. 1/2 BATH IS IN FINISHED BASEMENT. HOME SITS ON DOUBLE LOT.

8. 2004-05-14
   listed $99,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,755 · $146/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,801 · $150/mo
• Expected delta: +$46/yr (+$4/mo · 2.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,328
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$1,755
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,466
• − Management: −$1,466
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable income: $2,836
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$681
• After-tax cash flow: $3,898/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fitzgerald Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2614460
• Math proficiency: 8% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $34,828
• Composite: 12.67/100
• National rank: #9608
• State rank: #503 of 540 in MI

Livability — Warren

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #171
• US rank: #4491

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Warren, MI
• County: Macomb County · 638,552 people
• City population: 114,937
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 30,696
• Household income: $54,230
• Rent vs Own: 35.1% rent · 64.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1296.0

Population outlook (Macomb County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 925,296 people
• By 2030: 948,226 · +2.5%
• By 2040: 983,961 · +6.3%
• By 2050: 1,010,200 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 1,076,222 · +16.3%
• By 2100: 1,077,065 · +16.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Black 25% Asian 19% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Native American 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Other Indo-European 14% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Macomb

• 2024 margin: R (+13.7) · D 42.2% · R 55.9% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.3pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: -13.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.7 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+11.6 2012: D+4.0 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -199.66%
• Current HPI: 177.9273
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.35%
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+20.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-18 Listed $119,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2005-06-13 Sold (Public Records) $86,000 Public Records
• 2005-05-13 Sold (MLS) $86,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2005-05-13 Sold (MLS) $86,000 REALCOMP
• 2005-03-17 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2004-05-19 Listed $99,900 REALCOMP
• 2004-05-14 Listed $99,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,755 · +0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.