Mahogany Plan · Lakeland, FL 33813

$284,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,452 sqft · SingleFamily · 111 Days on market

Good condition 2-car garage $13/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.8/30.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Mahogany single-family home offers a fresh take on fine living. From your covered front porch or 2-car garage, step into a ranch floor plan that blends convenience and style. There's plenty of room for family and friends in 2 spacious bedrooms, with a full bath just outside their doors. Gather in the great room for movie nights, and don't forget to prep popcorn and other delicious snacks on the gourmet kitchen's large island. Enjoy the night air on your lanai before heading to bed in the sensational owner's suite, featuring a walk-in closet and step-in shower. The good life lives here.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Walk-in closet
• Gourmet kitchen

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• LARGE ISLAND
• LANAI
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• STEP-IN SHOWER

🏗️ New construction. The $284,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $301,190.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $285k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-468 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $234k (18.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $206k (27.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $206k (27.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#206 in FL, #3,179 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Spessard L Holland Elementary (math 47% / reading 49%, grade D, #1,171 of 2,144 statewide, top 55%, 766 students, 52% FRL); Bartow Middle School (math 33% / reading 36%, grade F, #421 of 571 statewide, top 74%, 1,046 students, 63% FRL); Bartow Senior High School (math 26% / reading 46%, grade F, #359 of 667 statewide, top 55%, 2,125 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 415 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 73d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 70% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($259k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $205,942 (27.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.43%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.65%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $301,190
• List price: $284,990
• Delta: -5.38%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6688 Millstone Ave	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,486 (+2%)	0mo	$301,190	$203	90
4583 Great Blue Heron Dr	2.06mi	3/2.0	1,459 (+0%)	0mo	$307,000	$210	64
2060 Ashboro Pl	2.13mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,824 (+26%)	0mo	$334,900	$184	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.81% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-80,980
• Equity at exit: $44,908

10-year hold

• IRR: -34.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.40×
• Total profit: $-118,461
• Equity at exit: $26,041

Cash invested: $84,333 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 30 active · 23 under contract
• Months of supply: 180.0 mo (1%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $299,990 ($196/sqft)
• Median days on market: 95 d
• This list price: 27% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +5.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 33813

• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 415
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,059 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,579
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$376 /mo · $4,518/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$13
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$432
• Net cashflow: $-468

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,651

Max offer price $233,541

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-259	-5% $-363	+0% $-468	+5% $-572	+10% $-676
Rent	-10% $-630	-5% $-549	+0% $-468	+5% $-386	+10% $-305
Rate	-1.0pp $-316	-0.5pp $-391	base $-468	+0.5pp $-546	+1.0pp $-625

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,298
• Closing costs: $9,036
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4017 Lana Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.5	1651	$1,851	$1.12	63d	1	0.32mi
3842 Featherwood Trl Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1490	$2,100	$1.41	25d	1	0.83mi
3819 Resting Robin Ave Unit NA Bartow, FL	4.0	2.0	1824	$2,299	$1.26	72d	1	0.85mi
3305 Lounging Wren Ln Bartow, FL	4.0	2.0	1824	$2,299	$1.26	72d	1	0.86mi
2702 Red Egret Dr Bartow, FL	3.0	2.0	1555	$2,140	$1.38	72d	1	1.05mi
4134 April St N Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1256	$1,910	$1.52	72d	1	1.05mi
5967 Hillside Heights Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1393	$1,800	$1.29	19d	1	1.11mi
5967 Hillside Heights Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1393	$1,995	$1.43	72d	1	1.11mi
3858 Whitedove Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,450	$1.13	68d	1	1.26mi
3972 Whitedove Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	1.5	1011	$1,670	$1.65	27d	1	1.28mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $284,990
• HOA & community: Association fee approximately $13 (period not specified)

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Utilities: Central air (electric cooling)
• Home design: Single-family plan (Mahogany)New construction
• Construction: Living area approximately 1,452Built as part of a new-home plan
• Exterior features: Located at 6945 Sundial Dr, Lakeland FL 33813

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Plan-style new construction (Mahogany plan)

Listing history 49 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $284,990 Active 111 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $284,990 Active 110 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $284,990 Active 109 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $284,990 Active 108 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $284,990 Active 107 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $284,990 Active 106 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $284,990 Active 103 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $284,990 Active 102 DOM
9. 2026-07-30
   days on market $284,990 Active 101 DOM
10. 2026-07-28
    days on market $284,990 Active 100 DOM
11. 2026-07-26
    days on market $284,990 Active 98 DOM
12. 2026-07-24
    days on market $284,990 Active 96 DOM
13. 2026-07-23
    days on market $284,990 Active 95 DOM
14. 2026-07-22
    days on market $284,990 Active 94 DOM
15. 2026-07-21
    days on market $284,990 Active 93 DOM
16. 2026-07-19
    days on market $284,990 Active 90 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $284,990 Active 88 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $284,990 Active 87 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $284,990 Active 86 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $284,990 Active 85 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $284,990 Active 84 DOM
22. 2026-07-09
    days on market $284,990 Active 81 DOM
23. 2026-07-07
    days on market $284,990 Active 79 DOM
24. 2026-07-06
    days on market $284,990 Active 78 DOM
25. 2026-07-05
    days on market $284,990 Active 77 DOM
26. 2026-07-03
    days on market $284,990 Active 75 DOM
27. 2026-07-02
    days on market $284,990 Active 74 DOM
28. 2026-07-01
    days on market $284,990 Active 73 DOM
29. 2026-06-30
    days on market $284,990 Active 72 DOM
30. 2026-06-29
    days on market $284,990 Active 71 DOM
31. 2026-06-28
    days on market $284,990 Active 70 DOM
32. 2026-06-28
    days on market $284,990 Active 69 DOM
33. 2026-06-27
    days on market $284,990 Active 68 DOM
34. 2026-06-25
    days on market $284,990 Active 66 DOM
35. 2026-06-23
    days on market $284,990 Active 64 DOM
36. 2026-06-22
    days on market $284,990 Active 63 DOM
37. 2026-06-18
    days on market $284,990 Active 60 DOM
38. 2026-06-17
    days on market $284,990 Active 59 DOM
39. 2026-06-16
    days on market $284,990 Active 58 DOM
40. 2026-06-15
    days on market $284,990 Active 57 DOM
41. 2026-06-13
    days on market $284,990 Active 55 DOM
42. 2026-06-10
    days on market $284,990 Active 52 DOM
43. 2026-06-09
    days on market $284,990 Active 51 DOM
44. 2026-06-08
    days on market $284,990 Active 50 DOM
45. 2026-06-07
    days on market $284,990 Active 49 DOM
46. 2026-06-05
    days on market $284,990 Active 46 DOM
47. 2026-06-03
    days on market $284,990 Active 44 DOM
48. 2026-06-01
    days on market $284,990 Active 43 DOM
49. 2026-05-31
    days on market $284,990 Active 42 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,713
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,871
• − Property taxes: −$4,518
• − Insurance: −$1,506
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,977
• − Management: −$1,977
• − HOA: −$156
• − Depreciation: −$8,762
• Taxable loss: −$11,054
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,653
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,957/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,260–$21,780 screening

This Mahogany single-family home in Highland City, FL, is in good condition with a fresh and modern kitchen. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for minor cosmetic improvements and smart home upgrades to enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Add a smart home system — A smart home system can improve convenience and add value to the property. ↑
• Both Install smart locks — Smart locks can enhance security and appeal to potential buyers/renters. ↑
• Both Add a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can improve energy efficiency and add value to the property. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 40/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Spessard L Holland Elementary D FL #1,171/2,144 Nat'l #14,249/41,679 Middle Bartow Middle School F FL #421/571 Nat'l #7,581/14,009 High Bartow Senior High School F FL #359/667 Nat'l #9,405/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 77/100

Livability — Lakeland

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #206
• US rank: #3179

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 752,975 people
• City population: 277,690
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 38,674
• Household income: $99,497
• Rent vs Own: 21.0% rent · 79.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 12% of renters

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Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 10% Black 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 0%

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Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -224.20%
• Current HPI: 296.1207
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $284,990
• HOA & community: Association fee approximately $13 (period not specified)

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Utilities: Central air (electric cooling)
• Home design: Single-family plan (Mahogany)New construction
• Construction: Living area approximately 1,452Built as part of a new-home plan
• Exterior features: Located at 6945 Sundial Dr, Lakeland FL 33813

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Plan-style new construction (Mahogany plan)